A Business at a Glance
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Alcoa Corp
AA
$11.7B
Mkt Cap
$44.24
-2.28%
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a current P/E ratio of 10.1, compared to its historical median P/E of 22.1. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.8%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a market capitalization of $11.8B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, Alcoa Corp (AA) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 0.89%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Alcoa Corp (AA) appears fair. The current P/E of 10.1 is 54% below its historical median of 22.1. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 35.8%.
Alcoa Corp (AA) operates in the Primary Production Of Aluminum industry, within the Materials sector.
Alcoa Corp (AA) reported annual revenue of $12.8 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Alcoa Corporation is an integrated upstream aluminum producer with bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting operations across 25 locations in eight countries on five continents. The company operates two reportable segments: Alumina, which mines bauxite and produces smelter-grade and non-metallurgical alumina through refining operations, and Aluminum, which smelts and casts aluminum into various shapes and alloys for global customers while managing most of the company's energy production assets. Aluminum and alumina are commodity products subject to market pricing through the London Metal Exchange and Alumina Price Index respectively, creating significant price volatility that influences operating results. The company's business model is capital-intensive, requiring sustained investment in asset maintenance and operational stability to deliver value, with a disciplined capital allocation framework prioritizing a strong balance sheet and low debt levels. Alcoa serves diverse end-markets including automotive, construction, consumer durables, and machinery sectors, with core geographic strength in North America and Europe, which are expected to remain in regional deficit and support long-term demand growth.
【Operational stability and portfolio optimization】 Management expects continued progress on strategic initiatives including ministerial approvals for Australian mine expansions by year-end 2026 and completion of the San Ciprián smelter restart to full run rate by mid-2026, which will support production growth. The company anticipates global aluminum demand to grow sequentially in 2026 driven by ex-China markets, though at a slower pace than previously anticipated due to geopolitical risks, while supply disruptions are expected to outweigh softer demand in the near term. Alcoa is focused on maintaining operational stability and productivity while managing its portfolio to maximize profitability, with plans to monetize non-operating assets and continue debt reduction toward its target range of $1.0–$1.5 billion adjusted net debt. The company expects to generate significant cash in 2026 and will balance debt repayment with shareholder returns and value-creating growth opportunities as it approaches its target leverage ratios.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Alumina production | 9.7–9.9 million tons | FY2026 |
| Alumina shipments | 11.8–12.0 million tons | FY2026 |
| Aluminum production | 2.4–2.6 million tons | FY2026 |
| Aluminum shipments | 2.6–2.8 million tons | FY2026 |
| Transformation costs | $100 million | FY2026 |
| Corporate expense | approximately $160 million | FY2026 |
| Depreciation | approximately $630 million | FY2026 |
| Non-operating pension and OPEB expense | $35 million | FY2026 |
| Interest expense | approximately $140 million | FY2026 |
| Pension and OPEB required cash funding | around $60 million | FY2026 |
| Net payments on prior year income taxes |
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.7B | 12.8B | 11.9B | 10.6B | 12.5B | 12.2B |
| Net Income | 1.0B | 1.2B | 60M | -651M | -123M | 429M |
| EPS | $3.93 | $4.37 | $0.26 | $-3.65 | $-0.68 | $2.26 |
| Free Cash Flow | 287M | 567M | 42M | -440M | 342M | 530M |
| ROIC | 0.0% | 20.2% | 4.8% | -10.1% | 7.6% | 16.7% |
| Gross Margin | - | 16.9% | 15.6% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 24.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.37 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.10 |
| Operating Income | 0 | 1.3B | 481M | -355M | 647M | 1.3B |
| Operating Margin | 0.0% | 9.8% | 4.0% | -3.4% | 5.2% | 10.3% |
| ROE | 15.1% | 20.5% | 1.3% | -14.0% | -2.5% | 10.7% |
| Shares Outstanding | 266M | 265M | 231M | 178M | 181M | 190M |
| Metric | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 11.2B | 9.3B | 11.7B | 13.4B | 10.4B | 9.3B | 12.2B | 12.5B | 10.6B | 11.9B | 12.8B | 12.7B |
| Gross Margin | 19.3% | 15.5% | 22.8% | 24.8% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 24.7% | 18.0% | 7.0% | 15.6% | 16.9% | N/A |
| R&D | 69M | 33M | 32M | 31M | 27M | 27M | 31M | 32M | 39M | 57M | 24M | 22M |
| SG&A | 353M | 356M | 280M | 248M | 280M | 206M | 227M | 204M | 226M | 275M | 299M | 311M |
| EBIT | -191M | 27M | 975M | 1.1B | -589M | 163M | 1.3B | 647M | -355M | 481M | 1.3B | 0 |
| Op. Margin | -1.7% | 0.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | -5.6% | 1.8% | 10.3% | 5.2% | -3.4% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Net Income | -863M | -400M | 279M | 250M | -1.1B | -170M | 429M | -123M | -651M | 60M | 1.2B | 1.0B |
| Net Margin | -7.7% | -4.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | -10.8% | -1.8% | 3.5% | -1.0% | -6.2% | 0.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| Non-Recurring | 1.3B | 482M | 425M | 545M | 280M | 211M | 511M | 55M | 22M | 227M | 249M | 249M |
| Returns on Capital | ||||||||||||
| ROIC | -1.7% | 0.3% | 10.8% | 12.2% | -16.9% | 2.1% | 16.7% | 7.6% | -10.1% | 4.8% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| ROE | -7.7% | -5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | -23.1% | -4.6% | 10.7% | -2.5% | -14.0% | 1.3% | 20.5% | 15.1% |
| ROA | -10.5% | -2.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | -7.3% | -1.2% | 2.9% | -0.8% | -4.5% | 0.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 875M | -311M | 1.2B | 448M | 686M | 394M | 920M | 822M | 91M | 622M | 1.2B | 931M |
| Free Cash Flow | 484M | -715M | 819M | 49M | 307M | 41M | 530M | 342M | -440M | 42M | 567M | 287M |
| Owner Earnings | 60M | -1.1B | 450M | -320M | -57M | -284M | 217M | 165M | -576M | -56M | 521M | 251M |
| CapEx | 391M | 404M | 405M | 399M | 379M | 353M | 390M | 480M | 531M | 580M | 618M | 644M |
| Maint. CapEx | 780M | 718M | 750M | 733M | 713M | 653M | 664M | 617M | 632M | 642M | 623M | 637M |
| Growth CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0M |
| D&A | 780M | 718M | 750M | 733M | 713M | 653M | 664M | 617M | 632M | 642M | 623M | 637M |
| CapEx/OCF | 44.7% | N/A | 33.1% | 89.1% | 55.2% | 89.6% | 42.4% | 58.4% | 583.5% | 93.2% | 52.2% | 69.2% |
| Capital Allocation | ||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19M | 72M | 72M | 89M | 104M | 105M |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50M | 0 | 0 | 150M | 500M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.0% | N/A | N/A | 1.4% | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 35M | 28M | 24M | 35M | 30M | 25M | 39M | 40M | 35M | 36M | 41M | 43M |
| Debt Repayment | 24M | 34M | 60M | 135M | 7.0M | 1.0M | 1.3B | 1.0M | 72M | 679M | 1.2B | 1.2B |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||||||
| Net Debt | -332M | 2.1B | 53M | 689M | 1.1B | 1.1B | 87M | 533M | 1.1B | 1.7B | -238M | -287M |
| Cash & Equiv. | 557M | 853M | 1.4B | 1.1B | 879M | 1.6B | 1.8B | 1.4B | 944M | 1.1B | 1.6B | 2.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | 207M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 2.5B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.7B | 2.5B | 2.4B | 2.4B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.02 | 0.52 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.81 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Interest Coverage | -0.7 | 0.1 | 9.4 | 9.0 | -4.9 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 6.1 | -3.3 | 3.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Equity | 9.4B | 5.7B | 4.5B | 5.6B | 4.1B | 3.3B | 4.7B | 5.1B | 4.3B | 5.2B | 6.1B | 6.8B |
| Total Assets | 16.4B | 16.7B | 17.4B | 16.1B | 14.6B | 14.9B | 15.0B | 14.8B | 14.2B | 14.1B | 16.1B | 16.6B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.9B | 9.0B | 10.6B | 8.5B | 8.7B | 9.8B | 8.7B | 8.2B | 8.3B | 8.9B | 9.9B | 9.7B |
| Intangibles | 53M | 135M | 62M | 57M | 52M | 45M | 35M | 29M | 37M | 36M | 34M | 34M |
| Retained Earnings | N/A | -104M | 113M | 570M | -555M | -725M | -315M | -570M | -1.3B | -1.3B | -271M | 127M |
| Working Capital | 162M | 360M | 986M | 1.4B | 967M | 1.8B | 1.8B | 2.2B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.7B | 1.9B |
| Current Assets | 2.6B | 3.2B | 4.2B | 4.3B | 3.5B | 4.5B | 5.0B | 5.3B | 4.4B | 4.9B | 5.5B | 5.7B |
| Current Liabilities | 2.4B | 2.8B | 3.3B | 2.9B | 2.6B | 2.8B | 3.2B | 3.0B | 3.0B | 3.4B | 3.8B | 3.8B |
| Per Share Data | ||||||||||||
| EPS | -4.73 | -2.19 | 1.49 | 1.33 | -6.07 | -0.91 | 2.26 | -0.68 | -3.65 | 0.26 | 4.37 | 3.93 |
| Owner EPS | 0.33 | -5.79 | 2.40 | -1.70 | -0.31 | -1.52 | 1.14 | 0.91 | -3.23 | -0.24 | 1.97 | 0.94 |
| Book Value | 51.75 | 30.96 | 24.16 | 29.89 | 22.19 | 17.72 | 24.61 | 28.06 | 23.83 | 22.35 | 23.11 | 25.66 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 4.80 | -1.70 | 6.54 | 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.11 | 4.85 | 4.54 | 0.51 | 2.70 | 4.48 | 6.28 |
| Dividends/Share | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Shares Out. | 182.5M | 182.6M | 187.2M | 188.0M | 185.3M | 186.8M | 189.8M | 180.9M | 178.4M | 230.8M | 264.8M | 266.0M |
| Valuation | ||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | 44.6 | 19.1 | N/A | N/A | 25.1 | N/A | N/A | 143.1 | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| P/FCF | 8.5 | N/A | 11.8 | 97.5 | 12.4 | 96.8 | 20.3 | 22.3 | N/A | 204.4 | 25.3 | 41.0 |
| EV/EBIT | N/A | 55.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 19.8 | 19.9 | 57.0 | N/A | N/A | 13.1 | N/A |
| Price/Book | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Price/Sales | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| FCF Yield | 11.6% | -13.9% | 8.5% | 1.0% | 8.0% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | -7.3% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Market Cap | 4.2B | 5.1B | 9.7B | 4.8B | 3.8B | 4.0B | 10.8B | 7.6B | 6.0B | 8.6B | 14.4B | 11.8B |
| Avg. Price | 26.42 | 22.61 | 36.42 | 42.37 | 22.67 | 12.74 | 36.47 | 54.63 | 34.68 | 35.30 | 33.13 | 44.24 |
| Year-End Price | 22.59 | 28.11 | 51.71 | 25.41 | 20.61 | 21.24 | 56.66 | 42.24 | 33.72 | 37.20 | 54.25 | 44.24 |
Alcoa Corp passes 4 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
Alcoa Corp trades at 10.1x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 22.1x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 20.6x vs a median of 22.3x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 7.8% with a gross margin of 16.4%. Total shareholder yield (dividends) is 0.9%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +10.0%.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a net profit margin of 9.0%. This is a modest margin.
Alcoa Corp (AA) generated $567 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45. This indicates a conservatively financed balance sheet.
Alcoa Corp (AA) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $4.37 in its most recent fiscal year.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a return on equity (ROE) of 20.5%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a 5-year average gross margin of 16.4%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 11 years of financial data for Alcoa Corp (AA), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Alcoa Corp (AA) has a book value per share of $23.11, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects continued progress on strategic initiatives including ministerial approvals for Australian mine expansions by year-end 2026 and completion of the San Ciprián smelter restart to full run rate by mid-2026, which will support production growth. The company anticipates global aluminum demand to grow sequentially in 2026 driven by ex-China markets, though at a slower pace than previously anticipated due to geopolitical risks, while supply disruptions are expected to outweigh softer demand in the near term. Alcoa is focused on maintaining operational stability and productivity while managing its portfolio to maximize profitability, with plans to monetize non-operating assets and continue debt reduction toward its target range of $1.0–$1.5 billion adjusted net debt. The company expects to generate significant cash in 2026 and will balance debt repayment with shareholder returns and value-creating growth opportunities as it approaches its target leverage ratios.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Alcoa Corp (AA) has provided the following forward guidance: Alumina production: 9.7–9.9 million tons (FY2026); Alumina shipments: 11.8–12.0 million tons (FY2026); Aluminum production: 2.4–2.6 million tons (FY2026); Aluminum shipments: 2.6–2.8 million tons (FY2026); Transformation costs: $100 million (FY2026), plus 10 additional metrics.
| approximately $230 million |
| FY2026 |
| Environmental and ARO spending | approximately $325 million | FY2026 |
| CBAM net benefit | approximately $10 per metric ton | FY2026 |
| San Ciprián smelter EBITDA loss | approximately $75–$100 million | FY2026 |
| Interest expense | $135 million | FY2026 |
Alumina production (FY2026): “For the full year 2026 outlook, we expect alumina production to range between 9.7 and 9.9 million tons”
Alumina shipments (FY2026): “shipments to range between 11.8 and 12.0 million tons”
Aluminum production (FY2026): “The aluminum segment production is expected to range between 2.4 and 2.6 million tons”
Aluminum shipments (FY2026): “shipments are expected to range between 2.6 and 2.8 million tons”
Transformation costs (FY2026): “we expect transformation costs to be $100 million”
Corporate expense (FY2026): “Other corporate expense will increase to approximately $160 million”
Depreciation (FY2026): “we expect depreciation of approximately $630 million”
Non-operating pension and OPEB expense (FY2026): “Non-operating pension and OPEB expense is expected to be up slightly to $35 million”