A Business at a Glance
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AES CORP
AES
$10.6B
Mkt Cap
$14.84
+0.07%
AES CORP (AES) has a current P/E ratio of 11.8, compared to its historical median P/E of 11.0. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
AES CORP (AES) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 23.5%. This indicates strong capital allocation and a potential competitive advantage.
AES CORP (AES) has a market capitalization of $10.6B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, AES CORP (AES) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 4.73%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, AES CORP (AES) appears fair. The current P/E of 11.8 is 7% above its historical median of 11.0. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 25.7%.
AES CORP (AES) operates in the Cogeneration Services & Small Power Producers industry, within the Utilities sector.
AES CORP (AES) reported annual revenue of $12.2 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
AES is a global energy company with over four decades of experience developing, operating, and owning electric generation and utilities. The company operates a diversified generation portfolio of 34,740 MW across renewable energy (54% of capacity), natural gas (29%), coal (15%), and other fuels (2%), with most generation sold under medium- or long-term power purchase agreements that mitigate exposure to electricity price, fuel cost, and currency fluctuations through contractual pass-throughs, capacity payments, and hedging arrangements. AES is the leading provider of renewable energy to data center companies in the U.S. and to large mining companies internationally, with a 12.0 GW backlog of signed contracts and a strategy focused on delivering customized solutions on time and on budget; the company also operates six utility businesses (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, and four utilities in El Salvador) that distribute power to 2.7 million customers and generate regulated returns on invested capital through tariff-based revenue models. The utilities segment benefits from growth riders and trackers that provide near real-time returns on rate-base investments, with AES Indiana and AES Ohio positioned as among the lowest-cost providers in their respective states and experiencing double-digit rate-base growth through 2027. Unit economics are characterized by long-term contracted cash flows with fixed and variable cost recovery, capital-intensive infrastructure requiring project-level non-recourse financing, and tax credit monetization in the U.S. renewables business. The company's competitive moat derives from its track record of reliable project execution, deep relationships with large corporate customers, proximity to fiber networks and land/water resources in utility service territories, and a substantial safe-harbored backlog protected from policy changes.
【Accelerating EBITDA inflection】 Management expects significant EBITDA growth momentum through 2027 driven by the maturing of the renewables portfolio, with 3.2 GW of new capacity coming online in 2025 and an additional 4.8 GW under construction expected through 2027, combined with rate-base investments at the U.S. utilities and full realization of $150 million in cost savings ramping to over $300 million by 2026. The company is seeing strong demand from data center customers and expects to sign 4.0 GW of new long-term power purchase agreements in 2025, with additional opportunities emerging from data center growth in utility service territories that could drive incremental investment beyond existing rate-base projections. Management remains confident in achieving its 5%-7% long-term adjusted EBITDA growth rate through 2027, with a step-up to low-teens growth expected in 2026, and notes that projects already in the backlog are expected to generate an incremental $400 million of run-rate EBITDA in 2028 and beyond. The company is focused on pursuing fewer but larger projects with returns in the upper half of its 12%-15% guidance range, and expects to maintain investment-grade credit ratings while continuing to fund growth through internally generated cash flow, tax credit monetization, and incremental debt capacity.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.65–$2.85 billion | FY2025 |
| Parent Free Cash Flow | $1.15–$1.25 billion | FY2025 |
| Renewables EBITDA growth rate | 19%–21% | Through FY2027 |
| Utilities EBITDA growth rate | 13%–15% | Through FY2027 |
| Utilities rate-base growth | 11% | 2023–2027 |
| Incremental run-rate EBITDA | $400 million | 2028 and beyond |
Adjusted EBITDA (FY2025): “we are reaffirming our 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance of $2.65 - $2.85 billion”
Parent Free Cash Flow (FY2025): “achieving the upper half of our $1.15 billion-$1.25 billion parent free cash flow target”
Renewables EBITDA growth rate (Through FY2027): “we expect tremendous growth at our Renewables SBU, with an average annual CAGR of 19%-21% expected from our 2023 guidance midpoint”
Utilities EBITDA growth rate (Through FY2027): “At our utilities SBU, we expect annualized growth of 13%-15% through 2027”
Utilities rate-base growth (2023–2027): “From 2023 to 2027, we expect annualized growth in our rate base of at least 11% across the two utilities”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.5B | 12.2B | 12.3B | 12.7B | 12.6B | 11.1B |
| Net Income | 1.3B | 900M | 1.7B | 249M | -546M | -409M |
| EPS | $1.88 | $1.26 | $2.36 | $0.35 | $-0.82 | $-0.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | -1.5B | -1.6B | -4.6B | -4.7B | -1.8B | -214M |
| ROIC | 0.0% | 20.1% | 45.2% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 38.3% |
| Gross Margin | 19.3% | 18.1% | 18.8% | 19.8% | 20.2% | 24.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.70 | $0.70 | $0.69 | $0.67 | $0.64 | $0.61 |
| Operating Income | 0 | -893M | 894M | -238M | 96M | 644M |
| Operating Margin | 0.0% | -7.3% | 7.3% | -1.9% | 0.8% | 5.8% |
| ROE | 30.3% | 23.4% | 54.8% | 10.1% | -20.9% | -15.1% |
| Shares Outstanding | 713M | 714M | 711M | 711M | 666M | 670M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 16.1B | 11.3B | 10.3B | 10.5B | 10.7B | 10.2B | 9.7B | 11.1B | 12.6B | 12.7B | 12.3B | 12.2B | 12.5B |
| Gross Margin | 18.5% | 23.7% | 23.2% | 23.4% | 24.0% | 23.1% | 27.9% | 24.3% | 20.2% | 19.8% | 18.8% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 187M | 196M | 194M | 215M | 192M | 196M | 165M | 166M | 207M | 255M | 288M | 241M | 219M |
| EBIT | 578M | 513M | -354M | -521M | -509M | -277M | -192M | 644M | 96M | -238M | 894M | -893M | 0 |
| Op. Margin | 3.6% | 4.6% | -3.4% | -4.9% | -4.7% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 5.8% | 0.8% | -1.9% | 7.3% | -7.3% | 0.0% |
| Net Income | 769M | 306M | -1.1B | -1.2B | 1.2B | 303M | 46M | -409M | -546M | 249M | 1.7B | 900M | 1.3B |
| Net Margin | 4.8% | 2.7% | -11.0% | -11.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% | -3.7% | -4.3% | 2.0% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 10.7% |
| Non-Recurring | 184M | 297M | -38M | -43M | 328M | 223M | -95M | -1.7B | 768M | 146M | 351M | 63M | -26M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 17.1% | 3.3% | -2.2% | -44.2% | 42.4% | 9.7% | 1.6% | 38.3% | 4.3% | 9.8% | 45.2% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| ROE | 17.9% | 8.2% | -38.0% | -44.2% | 42.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | -15.1% | -20.9% | 10.1% | 54.8% | 23.4% | 30.3% |
| ROA | 1.9% | 0.8% | -3.1% | -3.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | -1.2% | -1.5% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.9B | 2.5B | 2.3B | 2.5B | 2.8B | 1.9B | 2.7B | 3.0B | 2.8B | 4.3B | 5.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | -225M | -174M | 552M | 327M | 222M | 61M | 855M | -214M | -1.8B | -4.7B | -4.6B | -1.6B | -1.5B |
| Owner Earnings | 545M | 982M | 1.7B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.7B | 832M | 1.6B | 1.9B | 1.5B | 2.8B | -5.8B |
| CapEx | 2.0B | 2.3B | 2.3B | 2.2B | 2.1B | 2.4B | 1.9B | 2.1B | 4.6B | 7.7B | 7.4B | 5.9B | 6.4B |
| Maint. CapEx | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.0B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 10.7B |
| Growth CapEx | 771M | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.1B | 1.4B | 832M | 1.1B | 3.5B | 6.6B | 6.1B | 4.5B | 0 |
| D&A | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.0B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 10.7B |
| CapEx/OCF | 112.6% | 108.2% | 80.9% | 86.9% | 90.5% | 97.5% | 69.0% | 111.3% | 167.6% | 254.6% | 268.6% | 137.7% | 129.8% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 144M | 276M | 290M | 317M | 344M | 362M | 381M | 401M | 422M | 444M | 483M | 501M | 501M |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Share Buybacks | 308M | 482M | 79M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buyback Yield | 4.5% | 10.8% | 1.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 1.0M | 8.0M | 10M | 8.0M | 20M | 22M | 21M | 14M | 23M | 2.0M | 12M | 14M | 14M |
| Debt Repayment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | N/A | 13.4B | 13.0B | 14.0B | 14.2B | -1.1B | -1.0B | -727M | -1.5B | -1.4B | -614M | -312M | -1.6B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 1.5B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 949M | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.1B | 943M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 67M | 77M | 128M | 169M | N/A | 553M | 714M | 714M |
| Debt/Equity | 7.31 | 4.80 | 5.29 | 6.22 | 4.88 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| Interest Coverage | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Equity | 4.3B | 3.1B | 2.8B | 2.5B | 3.2B | 3.0B | 2.6B | 2.8B | 2.4B | 2.5B | 3.6B | 4.1B | 4.4B |
| Total Assets | 38.6B | 36.5B | 36.1B | 33.1B | 32.5B | 33.6B | 34.6B | 33.0B | 38.4B | 44.8B | 47.4B | 51.8B | 52.8B |
| Total Liabilities | 31.2B | 30.4B | 30.4B | 28.3B | 26.9B | 28.4B | 29.9B | 28.4B | 33.9B | 38.8B | 39.7B | 42.7B | 436M |
| Intangibles | 281M | 340M | 287M | 366M | 436M | 469M | 827M | 1.4B | 1.8B | 2.2B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.0B |
| Retained Earnings | 512M | 143M | -1.1B | -2.3B | -1.0B | -692M | -680M | -1.1B | -1.6B | -1.4B | 293M | 641M | 1.0B |
| Working Capital | 829M | -84M | 1.1B | 370M | 616M | 135M | 52M | 624M | 1.2B | -3.1B | -1.7B | -2.0B | -2.3B |
| Current Assets | 7.8B | 6.8B | 6.4B | 6.4B | 5.0B | 5.2B | 5.4B | 5.4B | 7.6B | 6.6B | 6.8B | 6.5B | 6.1B |
| Current Liabilities | 7.0B | 6.9B | 5.3B | 6.0B | 4.4B | 5.1B | 5.4B | 4.7B | 6.5B | 9.7B | 8.6B | 8.5B | 8.4B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 1.06 | 0.44 | -1.72 | -1.76 | 1.81 | 0.45 | 0.07 | -0.61 | -0.82 | 0.35 | 2.36 | 1.26 | 1.88 |
| Owner EPS | 0.75 | 1.41 | 2.60 | 2.01 | 1.99 | 2.08 | 2.54 | 1.24 | 2.43 | 2.65 | 2.07 | 3.97 | -8.08 |
| Book Value | 5.89 | 4.53 | 4.25 | 3.74 | 4.83 | 4.45 | 4.01 | 4.17 | 3.66 | 3.50 | 5.12 | 5.69 | 6.20 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 2.47 | 3.07 | 4.41 | 3.80 | 3.53 | 3.66 | 4.19 | 2.84 | 4.08 | 4.26 | 3.87 | 6.03 | 16.90 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.25 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Shares Out. | 725.5M | 695.5M | 657.0M | 659.7M | 664.6M | 673.3M | 657.1M | 670.5M | 665.9M | 711.4M | 711.4M | 714.3M | 713.1M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 8.8 | 14.6 | N/A | N/A | 6.1 | 35.3 | 273.6 | N/A | N/A | 49.4 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 7.9 |
| P/FCF | N/A | N/A | 9.8 | 16.0 | 32.9 | 175.3 | 14.7 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| EV/EBIT | N/A | 34.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 19.7 | 154.2 | N/A | 8.8 | N/A | N/A |
| Price/Book | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Price/Sales | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| FCF Yield | -3.3% | -3.9% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 6.8% | -1.6% | -11.2% | -38.1% | -54.9% | -16.3% | -14.0% |
| Market Cap | 6.8B | 4.5B | 5.4B | 5.2B | 7.3B | 10.7B | 12.6B | 13.4B | 16.3B | 12.3B | 8.4B | 9.9B | 10.6B |
| Avg. Price | 9.32 | 8.06 | 7.90 | 8.13 | 9.77 | 13.23 | 13.85 | 21.12 | 20.33 | 18.23 | 15.64 | 11.91 | 14.84 |
| Year-End Price | 9.36 | 6.43 | 8.24 | 7.95 | 10.98 | 15.88 | 19.15 | 20.00 | 24.52 | 17.31 | 11.87 | 13.91 | 14.84 |
AES CORP passes 6 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
AES CORP trades at 11.8x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 11.0x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 23.5% with a gross margin of 20.2%. Total shareholder yield (dividends) is 4.7%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +5.3%.
AES CORP (AES) has a net profit margin of 7.4%. This is a modest margin.
AES CORP (AES) generated $-1.6 billion in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Negative free cash flow may indicate heavy investment or operational challenges.
AES CORP (AES) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31. This indicates a conservatively financed balance sheet.
AES CORP (AES) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26 in its most recent fiscal year.
AES CORP (AES) has a return on equity (ROE) of 23.4%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
AES CORP (AES) has a 5-year average gross margin of 20.2%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 19 years of financial data for AES CORP (AES), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
AES CORP (AES) has a book value per share of $5.69, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects significant EBITDA growth momentum through 2027 driven by the maturing of the renewables portfolio, with 3.2 GW of new capacity coming online in 2025 and an additional 4.8 GW under construction expected through 2027, combined with rate-base investments at the U.S. utilities and full realization of $150 million in cost savings ramping to over $300 million by 2026. The company is seeing strong demand from data center customers and expects to sign 4.0 GW of new long-term power purchase agreements in 2025, with additional opportunities emerging from data center growth in utility service territories that could drive incremental investment beyond existing rate-base projections. Management remains confident in achieving its 5%-7% long-term adjusted EBITDA growth rate through 2027, with a step-up to low-teens growth expected in 2026, and notes that projects already in the backlog are expected to generate an incremental $400 million of run-rate EBITDA in 2028 and beyond. The company is focused on pursuing fewer but larger projects with returns in the upper half of its 12%-15% guidance range, and expects to maintain investment-grade credit ratings while continuing to fund growth through internally generated cash flow, tax credit monetization, and incremental debt capacity.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, AES CORP (AES) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted EBITDA: $2.65–$2.85 billion (FY2025); Parent Free Cash Flow: $1.15–$1.25 billion (FY2025); Renewables EBITDA growth rate: 19%–21% (Through FY2027); Utilities EBITDA growth rate: 13%–15% (Through FY2027); Utilities rate-base growth: 11% (2023–2027), plus 1 additional metric.
Incremental run-rate EBITDA (2028 and beyond): “we expect to earn an incremental $400 million of run rate EBITDA. This is from projects that we expect to be either still under construction at the end of 2027 or that will come online during 2027 and will contribute a full year of EBITDA in 2028”