A Business at a Glance
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ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.
ALK
$5.6B
Mkt Cap
$46.13
+3.08%
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a current P/E ratio of 55.6, compared to its historical median P/E of 16.7. The stock is currently considered Expensive based on its historical valuation range.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.2%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a market capitalization of $5.1B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) does not currently pay a regular dividend. However, the company returns capital to shareholders through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 12.81%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) appears expensive. The current P/E of 55.6 is 233% above its historical median of 16.7. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is -15.8%.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) operates in the Air Transportation, Scheduled industry, within the Industrials sector.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) reported annual revenue of $14.2 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Alaska Air Group operates three airlines—Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air—providing scheduled air transportation of passengers and cargo across North America, Latin America, Asia, and the Pacific, with hubs in Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, Anchorage, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco. The company operates a diverse fleet including Boeing 737, 787, 717, Airbus A330, A321neo, and A330-300F aircraft for mainline service, while Horizon and SkyWest operate regional Embraer E175 aircraft under capacity purchase agreements with Alaska. Passenger revenue comprises approximately 90% of consolidated revenue, with loyalty program revenue and cargo contributing the remainder; the company generates incremental revenue through premium cabin offerings, ancillary services, and its unified Atmos Rewards loyalty program launched in August 2025. Alaska achieved a single operating certificate in October 2025, combining Alaska and Hawaiian operations while preserving Hawaiian as a distinct brand, and is transitioning to a single passenger service system in spring 2026 to unlock additional synergies. The company competes as the fourth largest global carrier in the United States and is a member of the oneworld alliance, providing guests access to more than 900 destinations globally; competitive differentiation is built on scale, network relevance, loyalty program strength, and premium product offerings, with the company pursuing a long-term strategy to expand international service and grow premium and ancillary revenue streams.
【Integration momentum accelerating】 Management expects continued execution of the Alaska Accelerate plan to drive meaningful earnings expansion in 2026, with synergies and commercial initiatives delivering incremental profit beyond the targeted $1 billion over two years. The company anticipates strong demand momentum and constructive booking trends, particularly in premium cabins and loyalty-driven segments, positioning it to achieve solidly positive unit revenue growth despite modest capacity growth of 2–3% for the year. Cost discipline is expected to improve as integration milestones are completed and the company returns focus to core airline operations, with unit cost inflation moderating to low single digits in the latter half of 2026. Management remains committed to the $10 earnings per share target by 2027 and plans to continue debt repayment and share repurchases while maintaining a healthy balance sheet.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted earnings per share | $3.50–$6.50 | FY2026 |
| Capacity growth | 2–3% | FY2026 |
| Capital expenditures | $1.5 billion | FY2026 |
Adjusted earnings per share (FY2026): “We expect full year earnings per share to be in the range of $3.50-$6.50, representing a meaningful improvement over 2025.”
Capacity growth (FY2026): “We'll also take one 787 delivery and 4 Embraer 175s. We expect first-quarter capacity to be up 1%-2%, with full-year capacity projected to be up between 2%-3%.”
Capital expenditures (FY2026): “With planned CapEx of $1.5 billion, we expect to generate positive free cash flow this year.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call
| Segment | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Passenger | $5.50B | $8.81B | $9.53B | $10.65B | $12.84B | 36% |
Passenger ticket revenue, net of taxes and fees | — | $7.43B | $8.02B | $8.93B | $10.76B | 30% |
Operating Segments | — | $8.81B | $9.53B | $10.65B | $8.13B | 23% |
Loyalty program passenger revenue | — | $931M | $1.03B | $1.18B | $1.43B | 4% |
Loyalty program other | — | — | $648M | $733M | $855M | 2% |
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.4B | 14.2B | 11.7B | 10.4B | 9.6B | 6.2B |
| Net Income | 73M | 100M | 395M | 235M | 58M | 478M |
| EPS | $0.57 | $0.83 | $3.08 | $1.83 | $0.45 | $3.77 |
| Free Cash Flow | 914M | 940M | 1.2B | -444M | -253M | 738M |
| ROIC | 3.7% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 14.2% |
| Gross Margin | - | 12.7% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 21.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.36 | 1.61 | 1.13 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.00 | - | - | - | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Operating Income | 221M | 303M | 570M | 394M | 70M | 685M |
| Operating Margin | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 11.1% |
| ROE | 2.0% | 2.4% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 1.5% | 14.1% |
| Shares Outstanding | 111M | 120M | 128M | 128M | 129M | 127M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 5.4B | 5.6B | 5.9B | 7.9B | 8.3B | 8.8B | 3.6B | 6.2B | 9.6B | 10.4B | 11.7B | 14.2B | 14.4B |
| Gross Margin | 73.6% | 33.7% | 33.4% | 25.2% | 16.9% | 20.8% | 97.5% | 21.4% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 12.7% | N/A |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 199M | 211M | 248M | 368M | 326M | 313M | 101M | 173M | 295M | 334M | 387M | 443M | 442M |
| EBIT | 962M | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.2B | 643M | 1.1B | -1.8B | 685M | 70M | 394M | 570M | 303M | 221M |
| Op. Margin | 17.9% | 23.2% | 22.0% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 12.1% | -49.8% | 11.1% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Net Income | 605M | 848M | 797M | 960M | 437M | 769M | -1.3B | 478M | 58M | 235M | 395M | 100M | 73M |
| Net Margin | 11.3% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 5.3% | 8.8% | -37.1% | 7.7% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Non-Recurring | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 583M | 10M | 481M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 36.4% | 48.2% | 26.8% | 22.2% | 9.6% | 16.2% | -24.2% | 14.2% | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% |
| ROE | 29.1% | 37.4% | 30.9% | 30.9% | 12.1% | 19.0% | -36.2% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| ROA | 10.2% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | -9.8% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.0B | 1.6B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.2B | 1.7B | -234M | 1.0B | 1.4B | 1.1B | 1.5B | 1.2B | 1.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | 336M | 753M | 708M | 564M | 235M | 1.0B | -456M | 738M | -253M | -444M | 1.2B | 940M | 914M |
| Owner Earnings | 730M | 1.2B | 997M | 1.2B | 750M | 1.3B | -678M | 585M | 961M | 514M | 818M | 444M | 391M |
| CapEx | 694M | 831M | 678M | 1.0B | 960M | 696M | 222M | 292M | 1.7B | 1.5B | 293M | 309M | 297M |
| Maint. CapEx | 294M | 320M | 363M | 372M | 398M | 423M | 420M | 394M | 415M | 451M | 583M | 795M | 805M |
| Growth CapEx | 400M | 511M | 315M | 654M | 562M | 273M | 0 | 0 | 1.3B | 1.0B | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 294M | 320M | 363M | 372M | 398M | 423M | 420M | 394M | 415M | 451M | 583M | 795M | 805M |
| CapEx/OCF | 67.4% | 52.5% | 48.9% | 64.5% | 80.3% | 40.4% | N/A | 28.3% | 117.8% | 23.0% | 20.0% | 24.7% | 24.5% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 68M | 102M | 136M | 148M | 158M | 173M | 45M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Share Buybacks | 348M | 505M | 193M | 75M | 50M | 75M | 31M | 0 | 0 | 137M | 312M | 570M | 658M |
| Buyback Yield | 4.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | N/A | N/A | 2.7% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 12.8% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 6.0M | 25M | 26M | 55M | 47M | 29M | 24M | 51M | 42M | 85M | 63M | 10M | 15M |
| Debt Repayment | 119M | 116M | 249M | 397M | 807M | 1.1B | 565M | 1.3B | 385M | 282M | 1.9B | 519M | 519M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | -414M | -645M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 494M | 610M | -91M | 228M | 1.3B | 2.5B | 4.5B | 3.3B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 107M | 73M | 328M | 194M | 105M | 221M | 1.4B | 470M | 338M | 281M | 1.2B | 627M | 1.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | 686M | 569M | 2.6B | 2.3B | 1.6B | 1.3B | 2.4B | 2.2B | 1.9B | 2.2B | 4.5B | 4.8B | 4.8B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | 0.28 | 1.08 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 1.32 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 1.13 | 1.61 | 1.36 |
| Interest Coverage | 20.0 | 30.9 | 23.7 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 13.6 | -18.1 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 14.7 |
| Equity | 2.1B | 2.4B | 2.7B | 3.5B | 3.8B | 4.3B | 3.0B | 3.8B | 3.8B | 4.1B | 4.4B | 4.1B | 3.7B |
| Total Assets | 6.1B | 6.5B | 10.0B | 10.7B | 10.9B | 13.0B | 14.0B | 14.0B | 14.2B | 14.6B | 19.8B | 20.4B | 20.3B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.9B | 4.1B | 7.2B | 7.3B | 7.2B | 8.7B | 11.1B | 10.2B | 10.4B | 10.5B | 15.4B | 16.2B | 1.1B |
| Intangibles | N/A | 0 | 143M | 133M | 127M | 122M | 107M | N/A | N/A | 90M | 873M | 815M | 801M |
| Retained Earnings | 2.1B | 2.9B | 3.6B | 4.2B | 4.5B | 5.1B | 3.8B | 4.2B | 4.3B | 4.5B | 4.9B | 5.0B | 4.8B |
| Working Capital | -32M | -142M | -485M | -534M | -1.2B | -1.2B | -287M | -71M | -1.5B | -1.8B | -2.4B | -3.3B | -4.0B |
| Current Assets | 1.6B | 1.7B | 2.0B | 2.2B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 4.0B | 3.9B | 3.0B | 2.7B | 3.8B | 3.3B | 3.0B |
| Current Liabilities | 1.7B | 1.8B | 2.5B | 2.7B | 2.9B | 3.2B | 4.3B | 4.0B | 4.5B | 4.5B | 6.1B | 6.6B | 7.1B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 4.42 | 6.56 | 6.41 | 7.75 | 3.52 | 6.19 | -10.72 | 3.77 | 0.45 | 1.83 | 3.08 | 0.83 | 0.57 |
| Owner EPS | 5.33 | 9.58 | 8.02 | 9.39 | 6.04 | 10.22 | -5.49 | 4.61 | 7.46 | 4.00 | 6.38 | 3.69 | 3.51 |
| Book Value | 15.54 | 18.65 | 22.07 | 27.93 | 30.21 | 34.86 | 24.19 | 29.98 | 29.61 | 32.03 | 34.09 | 34.18 | 33.50 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 7.52 | 12.25 | 11.15 | 12.84 | 9.63 | 13.86 | -1.89 | 8.12 | 11.00 | 8.18 | 11.42 | 10.37 | 7.88 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.28 | 1.40 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Shares Out. | 136.9M | 129.3M | 124.3M | 123.9M | 124.1M | 124.2M | 123.5M | 126.8M | 128.9M | 128.4M | 128.2M | 120.5M | 111.4M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 12.2 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 16.7 | 11.0 | N/A | 14.0 | 91.8 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 62.0 | 80.3 |
| P/FCF | 22.0 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 15.6 | 31.0 | 8.2 | N/A | 9.1 | N/A | N/A | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.6 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.4 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 13.4 | 8.1 | N/A | 9.5 | 76.3 | 15.5 | 20.0 | 34.2 | 38.2 |
| Price/Book | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Price/Sales | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| FCF Yield | 4.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 12.2% | -7.0% | 11.0% | -4.8% | -8.7% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 17.8% |
| Market Cap | 7.4B | 9.9B | 10.4B | 8.8B | 7.3B | 8.4B | 6.5B | 6.7B | 5.3B | 5.1B | 8.4B | 6.2B | 5.1B |
| Avg. Price | 42.64 | 65.38 | 66.93 | 79.27 | 62.13 | 62.25 | 42.32 | 59.78 | 47.89 | 43.31 | 42.46 | 54.01 | 46.13 |
| Year-End Price | 53.96 | 76.21 | 83.33 | 71.12 | 58.68 | 67.90 | 52.58 | 52.90 | 41.30 | 39.92 | 65.83 | 51.49 | 46.13 |
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. passes 1 of 9 quality checks, indicating weak fundamentals.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. trades at 55.6x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 16.7x, suggesting it is currently Expensive relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 5.6x vs a median of 9.1x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 6.2% with a gross margin of 14.1%. Total shareholder yield (buybacks) is 12.8%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +15.1%.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a net profit margin of 0.7%. This is a modest margin.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) generated $940 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.61. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.83 in its most recent fiscal year.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a return on equity (ROE) of 2.4%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a 5-year average gross margin of 14.1%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 16 years of financial data for ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has a book value per share of $34.18, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects continued execution of the Alaska Accelerate plan to drive meaningful earnings expansion in 2026, with synergies and commercial initiatives delivering incremental profit beyond the targeted $1 billion over two years. The company anticipates strong demand momentum and constructive booking trends, particularly in premium cabins and loyalty-driven segments, positioning it to achieve solidly positive unit revenue growth despite modest capacity growth of 2–3% for the year. Cost discipline is expected to improve as integration milestones are completed and the company returns focus to core airline operations, with unit cost inflation moderating to low single digits in the latter half of 2026. Management remains committed to the $10 earnings per share target by 2027 and plans to continue debt repayment and share repurchases while maintaining a healthy balance sheet.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted earnings per share: $3.50–$6.50 (FY2026); Capacity growth: 2–3% (FY2026); Capital expenditures: $1.5 billion (FY2026).