A Business at a Glance
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CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP
$150.8B
Mkt Cap
$120.26
+0.05%
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a current P/E ratio of 18.9, compared to its historical median P/E of 10.3. The stock is currently considered Expensive based on its historical valuation range.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.7%. This indicates strong capital allocation and a potential competitive advantage.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a market capitalization of $146.5B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 2.75%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 3.09%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) appears expensive. The current P/E of 18.9 is 84% above its historical median of 10.3. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 19.4%.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) operates in the Petroleum Refining industry, within the Energy sector.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) reported annual revenue of $58.9 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
ConocoPhillips is an independent exploration and production company headquartered in Houston, Texas, operating across 14 countries with a diversified portfolio spanning unconventional plays in North America, conventional assets in Europe, Africa and Asia, liquefied natural gas developments, oil sands in Canada, and global exploration prospects. The company operates through five geographic segments—Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe/Middle East/North Africa, and Asia Pacific—generating revenue through the exploration, production, transportation and marketing of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, natural gas liquids and LNG on a worldwide basis. ConocoPhillips employs approximately 9,900 people and maintains a low-cost supply model characterized by capital-efficient development of resource-rich unconventional plays, particularly in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford and Bakken, combined with long-life conventional assets and major LNG projects under development. The company's competitive advantages include decades of disciplined exploration and appraisal experience, infrastructure-led development strategies that maximize utilization of existing facilities, and a portfolio positioned to deliver peer-leading free cash flow growth through the end of the decade. Approximately 84 percent of proved reserves are located in OECD countries, providing operational stability and regulatory predictability across the company's global footprint.
【Major projects driving inflection】 Management expects four major projects—Willow in Alaska, Port Arthur LNG Phase I, and two Qatar LNG trains—combined with a $1 billion cost reduction and margin enhancement program to deliver a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, with approximately $1 billion of incremental free cash flow annually from 2026 through 2028 and an additional $4 billion from Willow's 2029 startup. The company remains unhedged on oil and LNG to capture price upside, with 40 percent of crude production linked to premium markets such as Alaska North Slope and Dated Brent, positioning it to benefit from tightened global crude and LNG markets. Capital spending and operating costs are expected to decline significantly in 2026 and beyond, driven by capital efficiency gains in the Lower 48, completion of major project construction phases, and realization of Marathon Oil synergies, while production is guided to flat-to-modest growth as the company prioritizes cash generation and shareholder returns. Management is redirecting exploration focus to Alaska to support Willow infrastructure utilization and unlock additional resources near existing hubs, while continuing infrastructure-led development at legacy assets such as Surmont in Canada to maintain operational efficiency and cost competitiveness.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Production | 2,310,000 BOE per day (midpoint) | FY2026 |
| Operating costs | $10.2 billion | FY2026 |
| Capital expenditures | $12.0 billion - $12.5 billion | FY2026 |
| Free cash flow inflection | $7 billion | By 2029 |
| Incremental free cash flow | Approximately $1 billion annually | 2026 through 2028 |
| Willow first oil | Early 2029 | 2029 |
Production (FY2026): “For production, the midpoint of our annual guidance is updated to 2,310,000 BOE per day.”
Operating costs (FY2026): “Moving to operating costs, full-year guidance of $10.2 billion is unchanged, reflecting a $400 million reduction from 2025 due to the benefits of our cost reduction and margin enhancement program.”
Capital expenditures (FY2026): “For capital spending, we're updating our guidance to a range of $12 billion-$12.5 billion versus our prior guidance of about $12 billion, representing a 2% increase at the midpoint.”
Free cash flow inflection (By 2029): “the four major projects we have underway, combined with our cost reduction and margin enhancement initiative, are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 58.2B | 58.9B | 54.7B | 56.1B | 78.5B | 45.8B |
| Net Income | 7.3B | 8.0B | 9.2B | 10.9B | 18.6B | 8.1B |
| EPS | $5.39 | $6.35 | $7.81 | $9.06 | $14.57 | $6.07 |
| Free Cash Flow | 0 | 19.8B | 20.1B | 20.0B | 18.2B | 11.7B |
| ROIC | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 19.6% | 34.8% | 14.8% |
| Gross Margin | - | 25.1% | 28.9% | 31.8% | 37.8% | 4.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| Dividends/Share | $3.31 | $3.18 | $2.52 | $4.63 | $4.48 | $1.75 |
| Operating Income | 466M | 13.8B | 14.6B | 17.1B | 29.0B | 1.2B |
| Operating Margin | 0.8% | 23.4% | 26.6% | 30.4% | 36.9% | 2.6% |
| ROE | 11.3% | 12.3% | 16.2% | 22.5% | 39.9% | 21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,218M | 1,254M | 1,180M | 1,206M | 1,278M | 1,328M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 55.5B | 30.9B | 24.4B | 32.6B | 38.7B | 36.7B | 18.8B | 45.8B | 78.5B | 56.1B | 54.7B | 58.9B | 58.2B |
| Gross Margin | 22.5% | -16.1% | -15.3% | -3.2% | 29.0% | 5.4% | -0.0% | 4.3% | 37.8% | 31.8% | 28.9% | 25.1% | N/A |
| R&D | 263M | 222M | 116M | 100M | 78M | 82M | 75M | 62M | 71M | 81M | 81M | 78M | 78M |
| SG&A | 735M | 953M | 473M | 427M | 401M | 556M | 430M | 719M | 623M | 705M | 1.2B | 893M | 895M |
| EBIT | 11.5B | -6.2B | -4.3B | -1.6B | 10.8B | 1.4B | -509M | 1.2B | 29.0B | 17.1B | 14.6B | 13.8B | 466M |
| Op. Margin | 20.7% | -19.9% | -17.7% | -4.8% | 27.8% | 3.7% | -2.7% | 2.6% | 36.9% | 30.4% | 26.6% | 23.4% | 0.8% |
| Net Income | 6.9B | -4.4B | -3.6B | -855M | 6.3B | 7.2B | -2.7B | 8.1B | 18.6B | 10.9B | 9.2B | 8.0B | 7.3B |
| Net Margin | 12.4% | -14.3% | -14.8% | -2.6% | 16.2% | 19.6% | -14.4% | 17.6% | 23.7% | 19.5% | 16.8% | 13.5% | 12.5% |
| Non-Recurring | 954M | 2.8B | 499M | 8.8B | 1.1B | 2.4B | 1.4B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 242M | 131M | 1.0B | 1.0B |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 11.0% | -6.4% | -5.8% | -1.6% | 16.4% | 14.9% | -1.3% | 14.8% | 34.8% | 19.6% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% |
| ROE | 13.2% | -9.7% | -9.7% | -2.6% | 20.0% | 21.5% | -8.4% | 21.4% | 39.9% | 22.5% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% |
| ROA | 5.9% | -4.1% | -3.9% | -1.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | -4.1% | 10.5% | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 16.6B | 7.6B | 4.4B | 7.1B | 12.9B | 11.1B | 4.8B | 17.0B | 28.3B | 20.0B | 20.1B | 19.8B | 18.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | -516M | -2.5B | -466M | 2.5B | 6.2B | 4.5B | 87M | 11.7B | 18.2B | 20.0B | 20.1B | 19.8B | 0 |
| Owner Earnings | 7.9B | -1.8B | -4.9B | 5.0M | 6.7B | 4.7B | -878M | 9.5B | 20.4B | 11.4B | 10.3B | 8.0B | 6.3B |
| CapEx | 17.1B | 10.1B | 4.9B | 4.6B | 6.8B | 6.6B | 4.7B | 5.3B | 10.2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maint. CapEx | 8.3B | 9.1B | 9.1B | 6.8B | 6.0B | 6.1B | 5.5B | 7.2B | 7.5B | 8.3B | 9.6B | 11.5B | 11.7B |
| Growth CapEx | 8.8B | 937M | 0 | 0 | 794M | 546M | 0 | 0 | 2.7B | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 |
| D&A | 8.3B | 9.1B | 9.1B | 6.8B | 6.0B | 6.1B | 5.5B | 7.2B | 7.5B | 8.3B | 9.6B | 11.5B | 11.7B |
| CapEx/OCF | 103.1% | 132.7% | 110.6% | 64.9% | 52.2% | 59.8% | 98.2% | 31.3% | 35.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 3.5B | 3.7B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.8B | 2.4B | 5.7B | 5.6B | 3.6B | 4.0B | 4.0B |
| Dividend Yield | 5.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 126M | 3.0B | 3.0B | 3.5B | 892M | 3.6B | 9.3B | 5.4B | 5.5B | 5.0B | 4.5B |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | N/A | 0.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 381M | 286M | 272M | 227M | 265M | 274M | 159M | 304M | 377M | 334M | 268M | 336M | 11M |
| Debt Repayment | 2.0B | 103M | 2.3B | 7.9B | 5.0B | 80M | 254M | 505M | 6.3B | 1.4B | 5.0B | 913M | 913M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 17.8B | 23.2B | 23.6B | 11.5B | 8.8B | 6.8B | 8.8B | 9.4B | 7.4B | 12.3B | 18.2B | 16.5B | 17.0B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 5.1B | 2.4B | 3.6B | 6.3B | 5.9B | 5.1B | 3.0B | 5.0B | 6.5B | 5.6B | 5.6B | 6.5B | 6.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | 22.4B | 23.5B | 26.2B | 17.1B | 14.9B | 14.8B | 14.8B | 18.7B | 16.2B | 17.9B | 23.3B | 22.4B | 22.3B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.78 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Interest Coverage | 10.8 | -5.5 | -3.4 | -1.4 | 12.8 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 1.4 | 36.6 | 20.7 | 15.5 | 11.7 | 27.4 |
| Equity | 51.9B | 39.8B | 35.0B | 30.6B | 31.9B | 35.0B | 29.8B | 45.4B | 48.0B | 49.3B | 64.8B | 64.5B | 64.5B |
| Total Assets | 116.5B | 97.5B | 89.8B | 73.4B | 70.0B | 70.5B | 62.6B | 90.7B | 93.8B | 95.9B | 122.8B | 121.9B | 122.7B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.3B | 57.4B | 54.5B | 42.6B | 37.9B | 35.5B | 32.8B | 45.3B | 45.8B | 46.6B | 58.0B | 57.5B | 58.2B |
| Intangibles | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Retained Earnings | 44.5B | 36.4B | 31.5B | 29.4B | 34.0B | 39.7B | 35.2B | 40.7B | 53.0B | 59.3B | 64.9B | 68.9B | 70.0B |
| Working Capital | 3.5B | -467M | 1.7B | 7.1B | 5.9B | 9.9B | 6.7B | 4.0B | 5.9B | 4.3B | 3.5B | 3.6B | 3.6B |
| Current Assets | 15.1B | 8.8B | 8.6B | 16.5B | 13.3B | 16.9B | 12.1B | 16.1B | 18.7B | 14.3B | 15.6B | 15.5B | 16.2B |
| Current Liabilities | 11.5B | 9.3B | 6.9B | 9.4B | 7.4B | 7.0B | 5.4B | 12.0B | 12.8B | 10.0B | 12.1B | 12.0B | 12.6B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 5.51 | -3.58 | -2.91 | -0.70 | 5.36 | 6.40 | -2.51 | 6.07 | 14.57 | 9.06 | 7.81 | 6.35 | 5.39 |
| Owner EPS | 6.30 | -1.48 | -3.97 | 0.00 | 5.75 | 4.22 | -0.81 | 7.14 | 15.99 | 9.42 | 8.69 | 6.35 | 5.18 |
| Book Value | 41.64 | 32.15 | 28.15 | 25.06 | 27.36 | 31.14 | 27.68 | 34.20 | 37.56 | 40.88 | 54.90 | 51.44 | 52.98 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 13.29 | 6.12 | 3.54 | 5.79 | 11.08 | 9.89 | 4.45 | 12.80 | 22.16 | 16.56 | 17.05 | 15.79 | 15.56 |
| Dividends/Share | 2.84 | 2.94 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.16 | 1.34 | 1.69 | 1.75 | 4.48 | 4.63 | 2.52 | 3.18 | 3.31 |
| Shares Out. | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.2B |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 8.8 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 9.0 | 8.1 | N/A | 10.3 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 22.3 |
| P/FCF | N/A | N/A | N/A | 20.8 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 403.8 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | N/A |
| EV/EBIT | 200.0 | N/A | 282.1 | 124.2 | 6.1 | 47.9 | N/A | 82.1 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 244.9 | 350.8 |
| Price/Book | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Price/Sales | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| FCF Yield | -0.9% | -5.8% | -1.0% | 4.8% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 0.2% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 18.3% | 17.3% | N/A |
| Market Cap | 60.6B | 42.6B | 47.2B | 51.6B | 56.5B | 58.2B | 35.0B | 83.2B | 133.0B | 131.4B | 110.0B | 114.3B | 146.5B |
| Avg. Price | 50.74 | 41.57 | 31.47 | 36.25 | 50.93 | 48.21 | 33.79 | 49.45 | 90.55 | 102.16 | 106.84 | 91.28 | 120.26 |
| Year-End Price | 48.58 | 34.45 | 38.01 | 42.25 | 48.06 | 51.78 | 32.57 | 62.48 | 103.76 | 108.69 | 92.96 | 90.83 | 120.26 |
CONOCOPHILLIPS passes 5 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
CONOCOPHILLIPS trades at 18.9x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 10.3x, suggesting it is currently Expensive relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 7.6x vs a median of 7.2x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 18.7% with a gross margin of 25.6%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 5.8%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +42.1%.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a net profit margin of 13.5%. This is a healthy margin.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) generated $19.8 billion in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36. This indicates a conservatively financed balance sheet.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $6.35 in its most recent fiscal year.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a return on equity (ROE) of 12.3%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a 5-year average gross margin of 25.6%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 19 years of financial data for CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has a book value per share of $51.44, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects four major projects—Willow in Alaska, Port Arthur LNG Phase I, and two Qatar LNG trains—combined with a $1 billion cost reduction and margin enhancement program to deliver a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, with approximately $1 billion of incremental free cash flow annually from 2026 through 2028 and an additional $4 billion from Willow's 2029 startup. The company remains unhedged on oil and LNG to capture price upside, with 40 percent of crude production linked to premium markets such as Alaska North Slope and Dated Brent, positioning it to benefit from tightened global crude and LNG markets. Capital spending and operating costs are expected to decline significantly in 2026 and beyond, driven by capital efficiency gains in the Lower 48, completion of major project construction phases, and realization of Marathon Oil synergies, while production is guided to flat-to-modest growth as the company prioritizes cash generation and shareholder returns. Management is redirecting exploration focus to Alaska to support Willow infrastructure utilization and unlock additional resources near existing hubs, while continuing infrastructure-led development at legacy assets such as Surmont in Canada to maintain operational efficiency and cost competitiveness.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has provided the following forward guidance: Production: 2,310,000 BOE per day (midpoint) (FY2026); Operating costs: $10.2 billion (FY2026); Capital expenditures: $12.0 billion - $12.5 billion (FY2026); Free cash flow inflection: $7 billion (By 2029); Incremental free cash flow: Approximately $1 billion annually (2026 through 2028), plus 1 additional metric.
Incremental free cash flow (2026 through 2028): “We anticipate realizing approximately $1 billion of incremental free cash flow each year from 2026 through 2028, with another $4 billion from Willow coming online in 2029”
Willow first oil (2029): “First oil is anticipated in early 2029.”