A Business at a Glance
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Murphy USA Inc.
MUSA
$12.0B
Mkt Cap
$613.15
-1.54%
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a current P/E ratio of 25.4, compared to its historical median P/E of 12.2. The stock is currently considered Expensive based on its historical valuation range.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 22.0%. This indicates strong capital allocation and a potential competitive advantage.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a market capitalization of $11.3B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 0.38%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 5.04%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) appears expensive. The current P/E of 25.4 is 108% above its historical median of 12.2. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 25.3%.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) operates in the Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations industry, within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) reported annual revenue of $19.4 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Murphy USA Inc. operates a network of 1,800 retail stores across 27 states, primarily branded as Murphy USA and Murphy Express in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest, with a smaller Northeast presence under the QuickChek brand, generating revenue through the retail marketing of motor fuel and convenience merchandise. The company's business model emphasizes a low-cost operating structure featuring smaller-format stores (1,400 to 2,800 square feet) with focused convenience offerings, standardized operations requiring minimal staffing, and company-owned properties that eliminate rent expense for 73% of locations, enabling competitive pricing and high fuel volumes. Unit economics are characterized by high-volume, low-margin fuel sales complemented by merchandise contribution from convenience items, nicotine products, and food and beverage offerings, with store-level profitability measured through a coverage ratio that tracks how well merchandise contribution covers operating costs. Distribution is achieved through a combination of company-owned and third-party product distribution terminals and pipeline positions, providing competitive fuel sourcing at benchmark prices and access to diverse bulk and rack product markets. The company's competitive moat rests on strategic proximity to Walmart stores that drive customer traffic, a value-forward proposition targeting price-conscious consumers, operational excellence in cost management, and distinctive fuel supply chain capabilities including shipper status on major pipeline systems. Key customer segments include value-conscious consumers seeking low-price fuel and convenience merchandise, Walmart+ members benefiting from fuel discount programs, and wholesale customers purchasing unbranded fuel through the company's distribution network.
【Sustained new-store momentum driving EBITDA growth】 Management expects the new-to-industry store program to accelerate, with 50+ stores per year reaching maturity and contributing $35–40 million of EBITDA each once their three-year ramp completes, positioning 2026 as an inflection point for sustained EBITDA delivery. The company anticipates a normalization of fuel margins from the current low-volatility, low-price environment toward mid-cycle levels, which would unlock structural uplift of $0.03–0.04 per gallon and materially enhance fuel contribution; management has modeled long-term EBITDA potential of approximately $1.2 billion by 2028 under normalized conditions. Merchandise contribution is expected to remain resilient, with noncombustible nicotine categories offsetting cigarette volume declines and digital initiatives such as Murphy Drive Rewards and QuickChek Rewards driving center-of-store growth. Operating cost improvements from store excellence initiatives, self-maintenance programs, and labor model optimization are expected to continue, with maintenance expense trending toward approximately 4% of sales going forward. Capital allocation will maintain the 50/50 strategy of share repurchases and reinvestment, with dividend growth continuing at approximately 10% annually while maintaining leverage at or below 2.5x.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | approximately $1.2 billion | 2028 |
| New store EBITDA contribution per class | $35 million–$40 million | at maturity (three-year ramp) |
| New store openings | 50+ stores per year | 2026 and beyond |
| Dividend growth | 10% annually | 2026 and beyond |
| Maintenance expense as percentage of sales | approximately 4% | 2026 and beyond |
EBITDA (2028): “These updated assumptions generate EBITDA potential of around $1.2 billion in 2028.”
New store EBITDA contribution per class (at maturity (three-year ramp)): “each new build class of 50 stores to generate between $35 million and $40 million of EBITDA at maturity after their three-year ramp”
New store openings (2026 and beyond): “we can sustain 50+ NTIs a year and those classes mature”
Dividend growth (2026 and beyond): “we expect to continue to grow the dividend payout 10% annually”
Maintenance expense as percentage of sales (2026 and beyond): “I would expect something around, you know, 4%, you know, going forward.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.7B | 19.4B | 20.2B | 21.5B | 23.4B | 17.4B |
| Net Income | 554M | 471M | 502M | 557M | 673M | 397M |
| EPS | $29.13 | $24.10 | $24.11 | $25.49 | $28.10 | $14.92 |
| Free Cash Flow | 555M | 374M | 390M | 448M | 689M | 463M |
| ROIC | 23.7% | 18.8% | 18.4% | 23.5% | 28.4% | 20.8% |
| Gross Margin | - | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 3.27 | 4.39 | 2.81 | 2.74 | 3.55 | 2.78 |
| Dividends/Share | $2.35 | $2.15 | $1.79 | $1.55 | $1.27 | $1.04 |
| Operating Income | 836M | 719M | 743M | 826M | 968M | 604M |
| Operating Margin | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| ROE | 84.1% | 64.3% | 59.8% | 75.8% | 92.9% | 49.9% |
| Shares Outstanding | 18M | 20M | 21M | 22M | 24M | 27M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 17.0B | 12.7B | 11.6B | 12.8B | 14.4B | 14.0B | 11.3B | 17.4B | 23.4B | 21.5B | 20.2B | 19.4B | 19.7B |
| Gross Margin | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | N/A |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 119M | 129M | 123M | 141M | 136M | 145M | 171M | 194M | 233M | 241M | 235M | 232M | 228M |
| EBIT | 365M | 250M | 388M | 283M | 325M | 269M | 559M | 604M | 968M | 826M | 743M | 719M | 836M |
| Op. Margin | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| Net Income | 244M | 176M | 222M | 245M | 214M | 155M | 386M | 397M | 673M | 557M | 502M | 471M | 554M |
| Net Margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Non-Recurring | 194K | -4.7M | 88M | -3.9M | -1.1M | 100K | 1.3M | 1.5M | 2.1M | -800K | 3.7M | 15M | 15M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 23.8% | 13.9% | 19.8% | 21.3% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 25.4% | 20.8% | 28.4% | 23.5% | 18.4% | 18.8% | 23.7% |
| ROE | 32.2% | 21.4% | 29.7% | 34.2% | 27.6% | 19.2% | 48.7% | 49.9% | 92.9% | 75.8% | 59.8% | 64.3% | 84.1% |
| ROA | 12.7% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 306M | 216M | 337M | 284M | 399M | 313M | 564M | 737M | 995M | 784M | 848M | 814M | 1.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | 170M | 11M | 75M | 25M | 194M | 109M | 333M | 463M | 689M | 448M | 390M | 374M | 555M |
| Owner Earnings | 216M | 126M | 230M | 161M | 255M | 157M | 392M | 518M | 755M | 534M | 569M | 514M | 698M |
| CapEx | 135M | 205M | 262M | 258M | 204M | 205M | 231M | 275M | 305M | 336M | 458M | 440M | 450M |
| Maint. CapEx | 79M | 87M | 99M | 117M | 134M | 152M | 161M | 213M | 220M | 229M | 248M | 277M | 281M |
| Growth CapEx | 56M | 119M | 164M | 141M | 70M | 53M | 70M | 62M | 85M | 107M | 210M | 163M | 169M |
| D&A | 79M | 87M | 99M | 117M | 134M | 152M | 161M | 213M | 220M | 229M | 248M | 277M | 281M |
| CapEx/OCF | 44.3% | 95.1% | 77.7% | 91.1% | 51.2% | 65.4% | 40.9% | 37.3% | 30.7% | 42.8% | 54.0% | 54.0% | 44.8% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9M | 27M | 30M | 33M | 37M | 42M | 43M |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Share Buybacks | 51M | 249M | 323M | 206M | 144M | 166M | 400M | 355M | 806M | 333M | 446M | 650M | 570M |
| Buyback Yield | 1.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 10M | 3.1M | 9.3M | 5.6M | 9.4M | 4.5M | 11M | 6.7M | 20M | 21M | 30M | 24M | 27M |
| Debt Repayment | 70M | 146K | 20M | 131M | 21M | 573M | 39M | 224M | 20M | 23M | 667M | 2.7B | 2.7B |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 165M | 457M | 516M | 711M | 679M | 883M | 989M | 2.0B | 2.2B | 2.1B | 2.3B | 2.7B | 2.0B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 327M | 34M | 154M | 170M | 185M | 280M | 164M | 256M | 61M | 118M | 47M | 29M | 119M |
| Long-Term Debt | 492M | 490M | 630M | 861M | 842M | 999M | 951M | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 2.2B | 2.1B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.96 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 2.78 | 3.55 | 2.74 | 2.81 | 4.39 | 3.27 |
| Interest Coverage | 10.0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 104.5 |
| Equity | 859M | 792M | 697M | 738M | 807M | 803M | 784M | 807M | 641M | 829M | 840M | 624M | 659M |
| Total Assets | 1.9B | 1.9B | 2.1B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 2.7B | 2.7B | 4.0B | 4.1B | 4.3B | 4.5B | 4.7B | 4.9B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.9B | 1.9B | 3.2B | 3.5B | 3.5B | 3.7B | 4.1B | 4.2B |
| Intangibles | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 35M | 141M | 140M | 140M | 140M | 139M | 139M |
| Retained Earnings | 351M | 528M | 749M | 995M | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.7B | 2.1B | 2.8B | 3.3B | 3.7B | 4.2B | 4.3B |
| Working Capital | 278M | 43M | 994K | 81M | 92M | 206M | 94M | 93M | -127M | -46M | -200M | -181M | -179M |
| Current Assets | 691M | 436M | 516M | 614M | 570M | 711M | 625M | 768M | 727M | 827M | 748M | 748M | 871M |
| Current Liabilities | 413M | 392M | 515M | 533M | 478M | 505M | 531M | 675M | 854M | 873M | 948M | 929M | 1.0B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 5.26 | 4.02 | 5.59 | 6.78 | 6.48 | 4.86 | 13.08 | 14.92 | 28.10 | 25.49 | 24.11 | 24.10 | 29.13 |
| Owner EPS | 4.66 | 2.88 | 5.79 | 4.45 | 7.75 | 4.92 | 13.28 | 19.48 | 31.51 | 24.46 | 27.31 | 26.30 | 37.79 |
| Book Value | 18.52 | 18.06 | 17.59 | 20.41 | 24.49 | 25.21 | 26.56 | 30.34 | 26.76 | 37.95 | 40.31 | 31.93 | 35.66 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 6.59 | 4.92 | 8.51 | 7.84 | 12.10 | 9.84 | 19.10 | 27.72 | 41.54 | 35.89 | 40.67 | 41.68 | 45.17 |
| Dividends/Share | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.04 | 1.27 | 1.55 | 1.79 | 2.15 | 2.35 |
| Shares Out. | 46.4M | 43.9M | 39.6M | 36.2M | 33.0M | 31.9M | 29.5M | 26.6M | 23.9M | 21.8M | 20.8M | 19.5M | 18.5M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 12.4 | 15.1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 23.9 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 20.8 | 16.8 | 21.1 |
| P/FCF | 17.8 | 250.2 | 32.4 | 112.0 | 12.4 | 34.0 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 17.1 | 26.8 | 21.1 | 20.4 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.8 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 15.7 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 16.5 | 14.0 | 16.0 |
| Price/Book | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 17.2 |
| Price/Sales | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| FCF Yield | 5.6% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| Market Cap | 3.0B | 2.7B | 2.4B | 2.8B | 2.4B | 3.7B | 3.7B | 5.1B | 6.7B | 7.7B | 10.5B | 7.9B | 11.3B |
| Avg. Price | 47.84 | 59.68 | 65.22 | 68.07 | 74.85 | 86.81 | 115.02 | 145.09 | 243.20 | 300.86 | 455.88 | 425.08 | 613.15 |
| Year-End Price | 65.29 | 60.53 | 61.57 | 78.33 | 72.85 | 115.96 | 126.98 | 192.06 | 280.96 | 351.96 | 501.72 | 404.35 | 613.15 |
Murphy USA Inc. passes 7 of 9 quality checks, indicating strong fundamentals.
Murphy USA Inc. trades at 25.4x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 12.2x, suggesting it is currently Expensive relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 30.4x vs a median of 17.1x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 22.0% with a gross margin of 6.5%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 5.4%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +25.9%.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a net profit margin of 2.4%. This is a modest margin.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) generated $374 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.39. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $24.10 in its most recent fiscal year.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a return on equity (ROE) of 64.3%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a 5-year average gross margin of 6.5%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 15 years of financial data for Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a book value per share of $31.93, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects the new-to-industry store program to accelerate, with 50+ stores per year reaching maturity and contributing $35–40 million of EBITDA each once their three-year ramp completes, positioning 2026 as an inflection point for sustained EBITDA delivery. The company anticipates a normalization of fuel margins from the current low-volatility, low-price environment toward mid-cycle levels, which would unlock structural uplift of $0.03–0.04 per gallon and materially enhance fuel contribution; management has modeled long-term EBITDA potential of approximately $1.2 billion by 2028 under normalized conditions. Merchandise contribution is expected to remain resilient, with noncombustible nicotine categories offsetting cigarette volume declines and digital initiatives such as Murphy Drive Rewards and QuickChek Rewards driving center-of-store growth. Operating cost improvements from store excellence initiatives, self-maintenance programs, and labor model optimization are expected to continue, with maintenance expense trending toward approximately 4% of sales going forward. Capital allocation will maintain the 50/50 strategy of share repurchases and reinvestment, with dividend growth continuing at approximately 10% annually while maintaining leverage at or below 2.5x.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has provided the following forward guidance: EBITDA: approximately $1.2 billion (2028); New store EBITDA contribution per class: $35 million–$40 million (at maturity (three-year ramp)); New store openings: 50+ stores per year (2026 and beyond); Dividend growth: 10% annually (2026 and beyond); Maintenance expense as percentage of sales: approximately 4% (2026 and beyond).