A Business at a Glance
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Post Holdings, Inc.
POST
$5.5B
Mkt Cap
$90.91
+0.83%
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a current P/E ratio of 16.7, compared to its historical median P/E of 19.2. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.1%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a market capitalization of $5.1B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) does not currently pay a regular dividend. However, the company returns capital to shareholders through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 20.50%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) appears fair. The current P/E of 16.7 is 13% below its historical median of 19.2. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 40.7%.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) operates in the Grain Mill Products industry, within the Consumer Defensive sector.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) reported annual revenue of $8.2 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Post Holdings operates a diversified portfolio of food and beverage businesses organized into segments including Post Consumer Brands (ready-to-eat cereals and other grocery products), Weetabix (U.K.-based cereal brand), Foodservice (eggs, potatoes, and value-added products for institutional customers), Refrigerated Retail (egg-based and potato-based products for retail distribution), and Pet (pet food brands including Nutrish and Gravy Train). The company earns revenue through both retail and foodservice channels, with retail products distributed through grocery and mass-market retailers while foodservice products serve institutional operators seeking labor-saving solutions. The business model combines branded consumer products with private-label offerings, supported by targeted innovation and promotional investments; unit economics vary by segment, with higher-margin value-added products in foodservice and lower-margin dry pet food requiring careful pricing architecture. The company faces mature category headwinds in ready-to-eat cereal and competitive pressures in pet food, while leveraging its diversified portfolio to navigate volume challenges and pursue cost optimization and targeted growth investments. Geographic footprint spans North America and the United Kingdom, with customers ranging from major retail chains to foodservice operators.
【Cautious margin recovery ahead】 Management expects sequential EBITDA margin improvement in the second half of fiscal 2026 relative to the first half, with foodservice positioned to continue volume growth in higher-margin value-added products as avian influenza pricing normalizes and the business enters a normalized run rate. The company anticipates better year-over-year volume performance in the second half as it laps prior-year challenges, particularly in cereal and pet categories, though the cereal category is not expected to return to historical decline rates and pet brand relaunches are taking longer than initially anticipated. Cost pressures from energy and manufacturing are expected to ramp through the back half of the year, with the company hitting run rate toward fiscal year-end, while targeted pricing and price-pack architecture changes are being implemented to balance profitability and volumes. Capital allocation remains focused on protecting margins and strong cash flow generation, with continued share repurchases and opportunistic deployment of free cash flow supported by a long-dated debt maturity ladder.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.50 billion–$1.54 billion | FY2026 |
| CapEx | $350 million–$390 million | FY2026 |
| Foodservice normalized quarterly Adjusted EBITDA run rate | approximately $115 million | FY2026 |
| Pasta business contribution | $45 million–$50 million | FY2026 |
Adjusted EBITDA (FY2026): “As stated in our earnings release last night, including two months of pasta contribution, we expect our FY 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.50 billion-$1.54 billion.”
CapEx (FY2026): “Finally, our CapEx guidance of $350 million-$390 million is down notably from FY 2025 as we completed key investments within PCB and foodservice.”
Foodservice normalized quarterly Adjusted EBITDA run rate (FY2026): “Although still early in our planning process, our early read of the normalized quarterly adjusted EBITDA run rate of our foodservice business is approximately $115 million.”
Pasta business contribution (FY2026): “$45 million-$50 million is how we think about the contribution in fiscal 2026.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.4B | 8.2B | 7.9B | 7.0B | 5.9B | 5.0B |
| Net Income | 338M | 336M | 367M | 312M | 757M | 156M |
| EPS | $5.74 | $5.51 | $5.64 | $4.82 | $12.09 | $2.38 |
| Free Cash Flow | 517M | 488M | 502M | 447M | 127M | 397M |
| ROIC | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Gross Margin | 29.1% | 28.7% | 29.1% | 26.9% | 25.1% | 28.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 2.39 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.83 | 2.35 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.00 | - | - | - | $2.97 | - |
| Operating Income | 853M | 799M | 794M | 599M | 416M | 488M |
| Operating Margin | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% |
| ROE | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 25.2% | 5.6% |
| Shares Outstanding | 56M | 61M | 65M | 65M | 63M | 65M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2.4B | 4.6B | 5.0B | 5.2B | 6.3B | 5.7B | 4.7B | 5.0B | 5.9B | 7.0B | 7.9B | 8.2B | 8.4B |
| Gross Margin | 25.8% | 25.3% | 30.8% | 30.1% | 29.6% | 31.5% | 30.8% | 28.7% | 25.1% | 26.9% | 29.1% | 28.7% | 29.1% |
| R&D | 10M | 17M | 16M | 19M | 25M | 25M | 19M | 22M | 19M | 23M | 29M | 32M | 32M |
| SG&A | 460M | 734M | 840M | 868M | 976M | 912M | 783M | 807M | 905M | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.3B |
| EBIT | -208M | 213M | 546M | 517M | 574M | 781M | 537M | 488M | 416M | 599M | 794M | 799M | 853M |
| Op. Margin | -8.6% | 4.6% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% |
| Net Income | -359M | -132M | -28M | 35M | 457M | 122M | 800K | 156M | 757M | 312M | 367M | 336M | 338M |
| Net Margin | -14.9% | -2.8% | -0.6% | 0.7% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 12.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Non-Recurring | 214M | 72M | 2.5M | 27M | 5.2M | 136M | 1.1M | 4.7M | 0 | 0 | 7.4M | 9.5M | 2.0M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | -5.9% | 3.7% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| ROE | -15.7% | -4.4% | -0.9% | 1.2% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 25.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
| ROA | -4.6% | -1.4% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 183M | 452M | 502M | 387M | 719M | 688M | 626M | 588M | 383M | 750M | 932M | 998M | 1.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | 68M | 344M | 381M | 196M | 494M | 414M | 393M | 397M | 127M | 447M | 502M | 488M | 517M |
| Owner Earnings | 13M | 156M | 182M | 40M | 289M | 269M | 237M | 173M | -63M | 266M | 370M | 392M | 353M |
| CapEx | 116M | 108M | 122M | 190M | 225M | 274M | 233M | 191M | 255M | 303M | 430M | 510M | 488M |
| Maint. CapEx | 156M | 273M | 303M | 323M | 398M | 380M | 345M | 367M | 380M | 407M | 477M | 524M | 569M |
| Growth CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 156M | 273M | 303M | 323M | 398M | 380M | 345M | 367M | 380M | 407M | 477M | 524M | 569M |
| CapEx/OCF | 63.1% | 23.9% | 24.2% | 49.2% | 31.3% | 39.8% | 37.5% | 32.5% | 66.7% | 40.4% | 46.1% | 51.1% | 48.6% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 17M | 14M | 14M | 11M | 4.0M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 318M | 219M | 322M | 589M | 397M | 443M | 387M | 301M | 709M | 1.0B |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 20.5% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 15M | 23M | 17M | 24M | 31M | 39M | 43M | 49M | 66M | 77M | 84M | 82M | 83M |
| Debt Repayment | 6.9M | 1.2B | 1.6B | 2.1B | 912M | 919M | 2.9B | 1.7B | 1.6B | 307M | 2.0B | 526M | 526M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 3.3B | 2.8B | 3.4B | 5.6B | 6.3B | 6.0B | 5.8B | 5.8B | 5.4B | 5.9B | 6.0B | 7.2B | 7.4B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 268M | 841M | 1.1B | 1.5B | 990M | 1.1B | 1.2B | 665M | 587M | 93M | 787M | 177M | 269M |
| Long-Term Debt | 3.8B | 4.5B | 4.6B | 7.1B | 7.2B | 7.1B | 7.0B | 6.4B | 6.0B | 6.0B | 6.8B | 7.4B | 7.6B |
| Debt/Equity | 1.70 | 1.51 | 1.52 | 2.58 | 2.38 | 2.42 | 2.46 | 2.35 | 1.83 | 1.57 | 1.67 | 1.98 | 2.39 |
| Interest Coverage | -1.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Equity | 2.3B | 3.0B | 3.0B | 2.8B | 3.1B | 2.9B | 2.9B | 2.7B | 3.3B | 3.8B | 4.1B | 3.8B | 3.2B |
| Total Assets | 7.7B | 9.2B | 9.4B | 11.9B | 13.1B | 12.0B | 12.1B | 12.4B | 11.3B | 11.6B | 12.9B | 13.5B | 13.0B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.4B | 6.2B | 6.4B | 9.1B | 10.0B | 9.0B | 9.3B | 9.4B | 7.7B | 7.8B | 8.8B | 9.8B | 9.8B |
| Intangibles | 2.6B | 3.0B | 2.8B | 3.4B | 3.5B | 3.3B | 3.2B | 2.9B | 2.7B | 3.2B | 3.1B | 3.0B | 2.8B |
| Retained Earnings | -306M | -421M | -424M | -376M | 88M | 208M | 209M | 347M | 1.1B | 1.4B | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.3B |
| Working Capital | 699M | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.9B | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.0B | 1.4B | 673M | 1.3B | 812M | 945M |
| Current Assets | 1.2B | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.6B | 2.2B | 2.1B | 2.3B | 2.1B | 2.2B | 1.5B | 2.2B | 2.0B | 2.1B |
| Current Liabilities | 520M | 611M | 634M | 704M | 792M | 803M | 974M | 1.0B | 824M | 805M | 945M | 1.2B | 1.1B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | -5.91 | -1.52 | -0.41 | 0.50 | 6.16 | 1.66 | 0.01 | 2.38 | 12.09 | 4.82 | 5.64 | 5.51 | 5.74 |
| Owner EPS | 0.21 | 1.80 | 2.63 | 0.57 | 3.90 | 3.68 | 2.97 | 2.64 | -1.01 | 4.11 | 5.70 | 6.44 | 6.29 |
| Book Value | 37.63 | 34.30 | 43.43 | 39.94 | 41.09 | 39.91 | 35.68 | 41.92 | 52.00 | 59.30 | 62.92 | 61.60 | 56.94 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 3.02 | 5.21 | 7.25 | 5.56 | 9.68 | 9.38 | 7.82 | 8.99 | 6.11 | 11.58 | 14.33 | 16.39 | 16.18 |
| Dividends/Share | N/A | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.00 | N/A | 2.97 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Shares Out. | 60.7M | 86.8M | 69.3M | 69.6M | 74.2M | 73.3M | 80.0M | 65.4M | 62.6M | 64.8M | 65.0M | 60.9M | 56.1M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 174.1 | 15.9 | 63.3 | N/A | 30.0 | 6.9 | 17.7 | 20.6 | 19.2 | 15.8 |
| P/FCF | 20.3 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 20.2 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 40.8 | 12.4 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 9.9 |
| EV/EBIT | N/A | 29.6 | 14.2 | 19.6 | 21.9 | 16.3 | 16.4 | 20.8 | 24.0 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 16.9 | 14.6 |
| Price/Book | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Price/Sales | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| FCF Yield | 4.9% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.1% |
| Market Cap | 1.4B | 3.5B | 5.5B | 6.1B | 7.3B | 7.7B | 6.8B | 5.0B | 5.2B | 5.3B | 7.5B | 6.5B | 5.1B |
| Avg. Price | 31.30 | 31.35 | 46.75 | 53.57 | 54.36 | 66.06 | 62.16 | 68.00 | 75.68 | 88.76 | 100.37 | 111.05 | 90.91 |
| Year-End Price | 22.66 | 40.16 | 51.69 | 56.96 | 64.16 | 68.76 | 55.41 | 71.51 | 83.05 | 85.45 | 116.10 | 105.93 | 90.91 |
Post Holdings, Inc. passes 5 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
Post Holdings, Inc. trades at 16.7x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 19.2x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 10.0x vs a median of 12.3x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 5.1% with a gross margin of 27.7%. Total shareholder yield (buybacks) is 20.5%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +16.3%.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a net profit margin of 4.1%. This is a modest margin.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) generated $488 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.98. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $5.51 in its most recent fiscal year.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a return on equity (ROE) of 8.6%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a 5-year average gross margin of 27.7%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 15 years of financial data for Post Holdings, Inc. (POST), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has a book value per share of $61.60, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects sequential EBITDA margin improvement in the second half of fiscal 2026 relative to the first half, with foodservice positioned to continue volume growth in higher-margin value-added products as avian influenza pricing normalizes and the business enters a normalized run rate. The company anticipates better year-over-year volume performance in the second half as it laps prior-year challenges, particularly in cereal and pet categories, though the cereal category is not expected to return to historical decline rates and pet brand relaunches are taking longer than initially anticipated. Cost pressures from energy and manufacturing are expected to ramp through the back half of the year, with the company hitting run rate toward fiscal year-end, while targeted pricing and price-pack architecture changes are being implemented to balance profitability and volumes. Capital allocation remains focused on protecting margins and strong cash flow generation, with continued share repurchases and opportunistic deployment of free cash flow supported by a long-dated debt maturity ladder.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted EBITDA: $1.50 billion–$1.54 billion (FY2026); CapEx: $350 million–$390 million (FY2026); Foodservice normalized quarterly Adjusted EBITDA run rate: approximately $115 million (FY2026); Pasta business contribution: $45 million–$50 million (FY2026).