A Business at a Glance
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Vistra Corp.
VST
$56.4B
Mkt Cap
$163.38
-3.31%
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a current P/E ratio of 74.9, compared to its historical median P/E of 13.2. The stock is currently considered Expensive based on its historical valuation range.
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.4%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a market capitalization of $55.2B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, Vistra Corp. (VST) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 0.54%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 1.92%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Vistra Corp. (VST) appears expensive. The current P/E of 74.9 is 467% above its historical median of 13.2. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 27.9%.
Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the Electric Services industry, within the Utilities sector.
Vistra Corp. (VST) reported annual revenue of $17.7 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company serving approximately 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 18 states and the District of Columbia. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure, combining customer-centric retail sales with a diverse generation fleet totaling approximately 44,000 megawatts of capacity powered by natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage. The retail business, conducted primarily through brands including TXU Energy, Ambit Energy, and others, differentiates itself through innovative products such as 100% wind and solar options and energy management tools, with the largest concentration of approximately 2.6 million customers in Texas. The generation segment operates as a wholesale commodity risk management business that dispatches its fleet across major competitive markets including ERCOT, PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, MISO, and CAISO, with the integrated model enabling the company to structure products and contracts offering significant value compared to stand-alone retail providers by efficiently obtaining electricity at the lowest cost. The company's natural gas fleet comprises combined-cycle and peaking facilities, while its nuclear portfolio includes six units across four facilities with licenses extending through 2053, and its coal fleet operates in PJM and MISO with fuel sourced through long-term contracts and internal lignite mining in ERCOT. Vistra's competitive advantages include its integrated model linking generation production with retail customer and wholesale sales opportunities, a comprehensive hedging program that locks in value across varying economic cycles, and strategic positioning in high-growth markets where load growth is expected to outpace peak demand growth, resulting in improved utilization of existing generation assets.
【Sustained demand growth materializing】 Management expects calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue showing growth, marking the first four-year period of sustained growth since 2007, with load growth increasingly viewed as durable rather than episodic. The company anticipates annual load growth of at least 5%-6% through 2030 in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM, driven by multiple sources including large-scale data centers, medium-sized data centers, increased industrial activity, and ongoing electrification, though management believes the pace of physical development will be more measured than many third-party forecasts. The company expects overall load growth to outpace peak demand growth, resulting in higher utilization of existing generation and transmission infrastructure, which should enable the existing grids to handle this growth successfully while preserving affordability. Management remains confident in its comprehensive hedging program and the downside protection provided by the nuclear Production Tax Credit, positioning the company with a highly hedged earnings stream through 2027 and supporting visibility into cash generation exceeding $10 billion through year-end 2027. The company is executing on multiple strategic growth initiatives including the Cogentrix acquisition, development of Permian gas units, PJM nuclear uprates and capacity additions supported by power purchase agreements with Meta, and the Oak Hill 2 project, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation with mid-teens levered return thresholds for organic and inorganic investments.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $6.8 billion–$7.6 billion | FY2026 |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth | $3.925 billion–$4.725 billion | FY2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity | $7.4 billion–$7.8 billion | FY2027 |
Adjusted EBITDA (FY2026): “we are introducing guidance ranges for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion”
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth (FY2026): “adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion-$4.725 billion”
Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity (FY2027): “for 2027, we are introducing an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion-$7.8 billion”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Segment | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail energy charge in ERCOT | $5.73B | $6.97B | $7.67B | $8.06B | $8.97B | 34% |
Operating Segments | $5.73B | $6.97B | $7.67B | $8.06B | $8.97B | 34% |
Retail energy charge in Northeast/Midwest | $2.25B | $2.14B | $1.64B | $3.60B | $4.06B | 15% |
Wholesale generation revenue from ISO/RTO | $6.35B | $4.29B | $2.91B | $1.98B | $3.19B | 12% |
Revenue from other wholesale contracts | $3.20B | $2.13B | $1.48B | $1.05B | $1.15B | 4% |
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.4B | 17.7B | 17.2B | 14.8B | 13.7B | 17.7B |
| Net Income | 2.0B | 752M | 2.5B | 1.3B | -1.4B | -1.3B |
| EPS | $6.06 | $2.18 | $7.00 | $3.58 | $-3.26 | $-2.69 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.8B | 1.3B | 2.5B | 3.8B | -816M | -1.2B |
| ROIC | 11.6% | 7.3% | 17.9% | 11.9% | -7.7% | -7.1% |
| Gross Margin | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | 3.72 | 2.95 | 2.72 | 2.59 | 1.30 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.89 | $0.90 | $0.87 | $0.82 | $0.72 | $0.60 |
| Operating Income | 3.5B | 1.9B | 4.1B | 2.7B | -1.2B | -1.5B |
| Operating Margin | 18.1% | 10.7% | 23.7% | 18.0% | -8.6% | -8.6% |
| ROE | 36.6% | 14.1% | 45.4% | 26.3% | -20.9% | -15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding | 338M | 345M | 352M | 375M | 422M | 481M |
| Metric | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 5.4B | 9.1B | 11.8B | 11.4B | 17.7B | 13.7B | 14.8B | 17.2B | 17.7B | 19.4B |
| Gross Margin | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 600M | 926M | 904M | 1.0B | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.8B |
| EBIT | 198M | 491M | 2.0B | 1.5B | -1.5B | -1.2B | 2.7B | 4.1B | 1.9B | 3.5B |
| Op. Margin | 3.6% | 5.4% | 16.9% | 13.3% | -8.6% | -8.6% | 18.0% | 23.7% | 10.7% | 18.1% |
| Net Income | -254M | -54M | 928M | 636M | -1.3B | -1.4B | 1.3B | 2.5B | 752M | 2.0B |
| Net Margin | -4.7% | -0.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | -7.3% | -10.0% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 10.5% |
| Non-Recurring | 25M | 0 | 0 | 356M | 71M | 74M | 144M | 6.0M | 228M | 228M |
| Returns on Capital | ||||||||||
| ROIC | 1.2% | 3.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | -7.1% | -7.7% | 11.9% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 11.6% |
| ROE | -3.9% | -0.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% | -15.5% | -20.9% | 26.3% | 45.4% | 14.1% | 36.6% |
| ROA | -1.7% | -0.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | -4.7% | -4.4% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 1.9% | 5.0% |
| Cash Flow | ||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.4B | 1.5B | 2.7B | 3.3B | -206M | 485M | 5.5B | 4.6B | 4.1B | 4.7B |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.3B | 941M | 2.0B | 2.1B | -1.2B | -816M | 3.8B | 2.5B | 1.3B | 1.8B |
| Owner Earnings | 687M | 4.0M | 1.0B | 1.5B | -2.0B | -1.2B | 3.9B | 2.6B | 2.0B | 2.6B |
| CapEx | 114M | 530M | 713M | 1.3B | 1.0B | 1.3B | 1.7B | 2.1B | 2.8B | 2.9B |
| Maint. CapEx | 699M | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 1.9B |
| Growth CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174M | 235M | 766M | 919M |
| D&A | 699M | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 1.9B |
| CapEx/OCF | 8.2% | 25.7% | 26.1% | 37.7% | N/A | 268.2% | 30.7% | 45.5% | 67.6% | 61.4% |
| Capital Allocation | ||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 0 | 243M | 266M | 290M | 302M | 313M | 305M | 306M | 300M |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | N/A | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 763M | 656M | 0 | 471M | 1.9B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.0B | 1.1B |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | 8.1% | 6.6% | N/A | 4.8% | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 0 | 73M | 47M | 65M | 47M | 63M | 77M | 100M | 113M | 124M |
| Debt Repayment | 191M | 3.1B | 7.1B | 1.0B | 381M | 251M | 33M | 2.3B | 2.6B | 2.6B |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||||
| Net Debt | 2.9B | 10.4B | 10.5B | 9.0B | 9.4B | 12.2B | 11.0B | 15.2B | 18.2B | 18.5B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 1.5B | 636M | 300M | 406M | 1.3B | 455M | 3.5B | 1.2B | 785M | 634M |
| Long-Term Debt | 4.4B | 10.9B | 10.1B | 9.2B | 10.5B | 11.9B | 12.1B | 15.4B | 15.8B | 17.3B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.70 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.12 | 1.30 | 2.59 | 2.72 | 2.95 | 3.72 | 3.42 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | -3.9 | -3.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 167.9 |
| Equity | 6.3B | 7.9B | 8.0B | 8.4B | 8.3B | 4.9B | 5.3B | 5.6B | 5.1B | 5.6B |
| Total Assets | 14.6B | 26.0B | 26.6B | 25.2B | 29.7B | 32.8B | 33.0B | 37.8B | 41.5B | 41.3B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.3B | 18.2B | 18.7B | 16.8B | 21.4B | 27.9B | 27.6B | 32.2B | 36.4B | 35.7B |
| Intangibles | 2.5B | 2.5B | 2.7B | 2.4B | 2.1B | 2.0B | 1.9B | 2.2B | 2.4B | 2.4B |
| Retained Earnings | -1.4B | -1.4B | -764M | -399M | -2.0B | -3.6B | -2.6B | -454M | -12M | 903M |
| Working Capital | 1.3B | -190M | -460M | 393M | 2.0B | 779M | 1.8B | -313M | -2.6B | -1.0B |
| Current Assets | 2.7B | 3.4B | 4.1B | 3.4B | 7.9B | 11.1B | 11.6B | 8.1B | 9.2B | 9.0B |
| Current Liabilities | 1.4B | 3.6B | 4.6B | 3.0B | 5.8B | 10.3B | 9.8B | 8.4B | 11.8B | 10.1B |
| Per Share Data | ||||||||||
| EPS | -0.59 | -0.11 | 1.86 | 1.30 | -2.69 | -3.26 | 3.58 | 7.00 | 2.18 | 6.06 |
| Owner EPS | 1.60 | 0.01 | 2.10 | 3.14 | -4.17 | -2.78 | 10.33 | 7.43 | 5.71 | 7.68 |
| Book Value | 14.73 | 16.02 | 15.95 | 17.11 | 17.22 | 11.61 | 14.15 | 15.80 | 14.78 | 16.56 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 3.22 | 3.00 | 5.48 | 6.82 | -0.43 | 1.15 | 14.54 | 12.95 | 11.80 | 11.82 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.60 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.89 |
| Shares Out. | 430.5M | 490.9M | 498.9M | 489.2M | 481.4M | 422.4M | 375.1M | 352.4M | 345.0M | 338.1M |
| Valuation | ||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | 10.7 | 13.2 | N/A | N/A | 10.7 | 19.8 | 74.2 | 27.0 |
| P/FCF | 5.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | N/A | N/A | 3.8 | 19.7 | 42.3 | 30.6 |
| EV/EBIT | 48.1 | 39.0 | 10.1 | 11.2 | N/A | N/A | 9.0 | 15.4 | 38.3 | 20.9 |
| Price/Book | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| Price/Sales | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| FCF Yield | 19.3% | 10.0% | 20.4% | 24.7% | -12.6% | -8.5% | 26.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| Market Cap | 6.6B | 9.4B | 9.9B | 8.4B | 9.9B | 9.6B | 14.3B | 49.0B | 55.8B | 55.2B |
| Avg. Price | 14.55 | 19.00 | 21.53 | 16.95 | 17.21 | 22.13 | 27.23 | 88.26 | 169.25 | 163.38 |
| Year-End Price | 15.32 | 19.07 | 19.91 | 17.19 | 20.47 | 22.65 | 38.22 | 138.92 | 161.67 | 163.38 |
Vistra Corp. passes 4 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
Vistra Corp. trades at 74.9x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 13.2x, suggesting it is currently Expensive relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 41.8x vs a median of 5.2x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 4.4%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 2.5%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +15.9%.
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a net profit margin of 4.2%. This is a modest margin.
Vistra Corp. (VST) generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.72. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
Vistra Corp. (VST) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18 in its most recent fiscal year.
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a return on equity (ROE) of 14.1%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
The Ledger Terminal provides 9 years of financial data for Vistra Corp. (VST), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Vistra Corp. (VST) has a book value per share of $14.78, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue showing growth, marking the first four-year period of sustained growth since 2007, with load growth increasingly viewed as durable rather than episodic. The company anticipates annual load growth of at least 5%-6% through 2030 in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM, driven by multiple sources including large-scale data centers, medium-sized data centers, increased industrial activity, and ongoing electrification, though management believes the pace of physical development will be more measured than many third-party forecasts. The company expects overall load growth to outpace peak demand growth, resulting in higher utilization of existing generation and transmission infrastructure, which should enable the existing grids to handle this growth successfully while preserving affordability. Management remains confident in its comprehensive hedging program and the downside protection provided by the nuclear Production Tax Credit, positioning the company with a highly hedged earnings stream through 2027 and supporting visibility into cash generation exceeding $10 billion through year-end 2027. The company is executing on multiple strategic growth initiatives including the Cogentrix acquisition, development of Permian gas units, PJM nuclear uprates and capacity additions supported by power purchase agreements with Meta, and the Oak Hill 2 project, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation with mid-teens levered return thresholds for organic and inorganic investments.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Vistra Corp. (VST) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted EBITDA: $6.8 billion–$7.6 billion (FY2026); Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth: $3.925 billion–$4.725 billion (FY2026); Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity: $7.4 billion–$7.8 billion (FY2027).