A Business at a Glance
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Warner Music Group Corp.
WMG
$17.4B
Mkt Cap
$26.55
-0.19%
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a current P/E ratio of 46.6, compared to its historical median P/E of 36.3. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.3%. This indicates strong capital allocation and a potential competitive advantage.
Yes, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 2.75%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) appears fair. The current P/E of 46.6 is 28% above its historical median of 36.3. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 19.3%.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) operates in the Services-Amusement & Recreation Services industry, within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) reported annual revenue of $6.7 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a net profit margin of 5.4%. This is a modest margin.
Warner Music Group is one of the world's leading music entertainment companies operating through two primary segments: Recorded Music and Music Publishing. The Recorded Music business, home to superstar artists such as Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Cardi B, and Dua Lipa, operates through a portfolio of iconic record labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra Records, and Parlophone Records, generating revenue through licensing music to digital streaming platforms, physical sales, and other distribution channels. The Music Publishing business, Warner Chappell Music, owns and administers a global catalog of more than two million musical compositions representing works by over 190,000 songwriters and composers, including contemporary artists such as Twenty One Pilots, Lizzo, and Katy Perry, and generates revenue through mechanical royalties, performance royalties, and synchronization licensing. The company's business model centers on identifying, signing, developing, and marketing recording artists and songwriters to build long-term global careers, leveraging its global A&R expertise and marketing strategies to help talent navigate the digital music landscape where barriers to distribution have been erased. The company benefits from scale through its global platform combined with local market focus, and maintains competitive advantages through early adoption of new business models and technology partnerships with major platforms including Apple, YouTube, and Tencent Music Entertainment Group, as well as emerging opportunities in AI licensing and premium streaming tiers. The company operates globally with a diversified customer base spanning digital streaming platforms, physical retailers, and direct-to-consumer channels, and generates approximately 81% of revenue from Recorded Music and 19% from Music Publishing.
【AI-driven growth acceleration】 Management expects material contributions to revenue and margin growth beginning in fiscal 2027 from AI licensing deals, including partnerships with platforms such as Suno that are generating annualized revenue and planning fully licensed offerings. The company is actively engaged with major digital streaming platform partners on AI-centric premium offerings designed to enhance consumer experience and support higher-priced tiers. Management expects strong top-line growth in fiscal 2026 bolstered by focused organic investments, accretive catalog acquisitions, and contributions from adjacent areas such as distribution and direct-to-consumer offerings, alongside contractual digital streaming platform price increases beginning in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The company targets margin expansion of 150–200 basis points in fiscal 2026 through operating leverage and cost savings, with longer-term margin targets in the mid-20s percentage range in the short term and high 20s over the longer term, supported by disciplined capital allocation and AI-driven efficiency improvements across finance and other functions.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted OIBDA margin expansion | 150–200 basis points | Fiscal 2026 |
| Adjusted OIBDA margin target | Mid-20s percentage | Short term |
| Adjusted OIBDA margin target | High 20s percentage | Longer term |
| AI licensing annualized revenue | $300 million | Current (Suno platform) |
Adjusted OIBDA margin expansion (Fiscal 2026): “we expect this program to deliver margin expansion of 150- 200 basis points in fiscal 2026”
Adjusted OIBDA margin target (Short term): “we believe that a margin in the mid-20s% is achievable in the short term”
Adjusted OIBDA margin target (Longer term): “have a longer-term goal to deliver margins in the high 20s%”
AI licensing annualized revenue (Current (Suno platform)): “Our recent licensing deals with leading AI platforms, including Suno, which is currently generating $300 million in annualized revenue”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1B | 6.7B | 6.4B | 6.0B | 5.9B | 5.3B |
| Net Income | 452M | 365M | 435M | 430M | 551M | 304M |
| EPS | $0.00 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow | 729M | 539M | 638M | 560M | 607M | 545M |
| ROIC | 97.5% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 16.6% | 14.4% |
| Gross Margin | - | 45.8% | 47.8% | 47.4% | 48.0% | 48.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.91 | 6.66 | 8.28 | 13.88 | 26.40 | 118.58 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.00 | $0.73 | $0.69 | $0.65 | $0.61 | $0.51 |
| Operating Income | 864M | 694M | 823M | 790M | 714M | 609M |
| Operating Margin | 12.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% |
| ROE | 61.2% | 62.7% | 105.5% | 187.4% | 362.5% | 980.6% |
| Shares Outstanding | 0M | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 3.0B | 3.0B | 3.2B | 3.6B | 4.0B | 4.5B | 4.5B | 5.3B | 5.9B | 6.0B | 6.4B | 6.7B | 7.1B |
| Gross Margin | 56.7% | 49.1% | 47.4% | 46.0% | 45.8% | 46.3% | 47.7% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 47.4% | 47.8% | 45.8% | N/A |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 2.2B | 1.7B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.9B | 1.9B | 1.9B |
| EBIT | 19M | 127M | 214M | 222M | 217M | 356M | -229M | 609M | 714M | 790M | 823M | 694M | 864M |
| Op. Margin | 0.6% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | -5.1% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| Net Income | -308M | -91M | 25M | 143M | 307M | 256M | -475M | 304M | 551M | 430M | 435M | 365M | 452M |
| Net Margin | -10.2% | -3.1% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | -10.6% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% |
| Non-Recurring | 79M | 2.0M | 24M | -17M | 389M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0M | 123M | 344M | 238M | 114M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 0.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 17.0% | -16.6% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 97.5% |
| ROE | -56.2% | -30.7% | 12.0% | 58.6% | N/A | -82.2% | 269.9% | 980.6% | 362.5% | 187.4% | 105.5% | 62.7% | 61.2% |
| ROA | -5.0% | -1.6% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | -7.6% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 130M | 222M | 342M | 535M | 425M | 400M | 463M | 638M | 742M | 687M | 754M | 678M | 843M |
| Free Cash Flow | 54M | 159M | 300M | 491M | 351M | 296M | 378M | 545M | 607M | 560M | 638M | 539M | 729M |
| Owner Earnings | -199M | -90M | 26M | 214M | 102M | 81M | -406M | 287M | 364M | 306M | 375M | 282M | 414M |
| CapEx | 76M | 63M | 42M | 44M | 74M | 104M | 85M | 93M | 135M | 127M | 116M | 139M | 114M |
| Maint. CapEx | 321M | 309M | 293M | 251M | 261M | 269M | 261M | 306M | 339M | 332M | 327M | 376M | 402M |
| Growth CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 321M | 309M | 293M | 251M | 261M | 269M | 261M | 306M | 339M | 332M | 327M | 376M | 402M |
| CapEx/OCF | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 18.4% | 14.6% | 18.2% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 20.5% | 13.5% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84M | 925M | 94M | 344M | 265M | 318M | 340M | 361M | 383M | 394M |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16M | 62M |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 8.0M | 3.0M | 23M | 70M | 62M | 50M | 608M | 45M | 39M | 49M | 52M | 20M | 27M |
| Debt Repayment | 10M | 13M | 309M | 13M | 12M | 5.0M | 23M | 21M | 0 | 0 | 2.0M | 2.0M | 2.0M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 2.9B | 2.7B | 2.4B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 2.9B | 3.2B | 3.4B | 3.6B | 3.6B | 3.8B | -68M |
| Cash & Equiv. | 157M | 246M | 359M | 647M | 514M | 619M | 553M | 499M | 584M | 641M | 694M | 532M | 741M |
| Long-Term Debt | 3.0B | 3.0B | 2.8B | 2.8B | 2.8B | 3.0B | 3.1B | 3.3B | 3.7B | 4.0B | 4.0B | 4.1B | 673M |
| Debt/Equity | 8.17 | 13.55 | 14.25 | 9.59 | -8.44 | -10.29 | -54.63 | 118.58 | 26.40 | 13.88 | 8.28 | 6.66 | 0.91 |
| Interest Coverage | 0.1 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 2.6 | -1.8 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Equity | 371M | 221M | 195M | 293M | -334M | -289M | -63M | 31M | 152M | 307M | 518M | 647M | 738M |
| Total Assets | 6.0B | 5.6B | 5.3B | 5.7B | 5.3B | 6.0B | 6.4B | 7.2B | 7.8B | 8.5B | 9.2B | 9.8B | 10.6B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.6B | 5.4B | 5.1B | 5.4B | 5.7B | 6.3B | 6.5B | 7.2B | 7.7B | 8.1B | 8.5B | 9.1B | 9.6B |
| Intangibles | 3.0B | 2.6B | 2.3B | 2.2B | 2.0B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 2.2B | 2.4B | 2.5B | 2.5B | 2.9B | 3.3B |
| Retained Earnings | -649M | -740M | -715M | -654M | -1.3B | -1.2B | -1.7B | -1.7B | -1.5B | -1.4B | -1.3B | -1.3B | -1.2B |
| Working Capital | -1.1B | -1.0B | -934M | -825M | -1.2B | -1.1B | -1.0B | -1.3B | -1.2B | -1.1B | -1.3B | -1.4B | -1.2B |
| Current Assets | 782M | 827M | 908M | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.7B | 1.7B | 1.9B | 2.1B | 2.4B | 2.6B | 2.8B | 3.2B |
| Current Liabilities | 1.9B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.4B | 2.8B | 2.7B | 3.1B | 3.4B | 3.5B | 3.9B | 4.2B | 4.4B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | -291,943.13 | -86,255.92 | 23,696.68 | 135,545.02 | 291,825.10 | 241,509.43 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Owner EPS | -188,625.59 | -85,308.06 | 24,644.55 | 202,843.60 | 96,958.17 | 76,415.09 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Book Value | 351,658.77 | 209,478.67 | 184,834.12 | 277,725.12 | -317,490.49 | -272,641.51 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 123,222.75 | 210,426.54 | 324,170.62 | 507,109.00 | 403,992.40 | 377,358.49 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Dividends/Share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 79,620.85 | 879,277.57 | 88,679.25 | N/A | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.00 |
| Shares Out. | 0.0M | 0.0M | 0.0M | 0.0M | 0.0M | 0.0M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.0M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 65.3 | 21.0 | 35.9 | 36.3 | 47.6 | N/A |
| P/FCF | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| EV/EBIT | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 36.4 | 19.8 | 23.0 | 22.4 | 29.4 | -0.1 |
| Price/Book | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 640.2 | 76.0 | 50.3 | 30.4 | 26.9 | N/A |
| Price/Sales | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | N/A |
| FCF Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | N/A |
| Market Cap | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 12.5B | 19.8B | 11.6B | 15.5B | 15.8B | 17.4B | 0 |
| Avg. Price | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26.40 | 31.51 | 32.01 | 28.43 | 30.88 | 30.29 | 26.55 |
| Year-End Price | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 25.01 | 37.86 | 22.23 | 29.48 | 30.09 | 32.88 | 26.55 |
Warner Music Group Corp. passes 3 of 9 quality checks, indicating weak fundamentals.
Warner Music Group Corp. trades at 46.6x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 36.3x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 15.3% with a gross margin of 47.5%. Total shareholder yield (dividends) is 2.7%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +19.3%.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) generated $539 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.66. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a return on equity (ROE) of 62.7%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has a 5-year average gross margin of 47.5%. This indicates decent pricing power.
The Ledger Terminal provides 15 years of financial data for Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects material contributions to revenue and margin growth beginning in fiscal 2027 from AI licensing deals, including partnerships with platforms such as Suno that are generating annualized revenue and planning fully licensed offerings. The company is actively engaged with major digital streaming platform partners on AI-centric premium offerings designed to enhance consumer experience and support higher-priced tiers. Management expects strong top-line growth in fiscal 2026 bolstered by focused organic investments, accretive catalog acquisitions, and contributions from adjacent areas such as distribution and direct-to-consumer offerings, alongside contractual digital streaming platform price increases beginning in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The company targets margin expansion of 150–200 basis points in fiscal 2026 through operating leverage and cost savings, with longer-term margin targets in the mid-20s percentage range in the short term and high 20s over the longer term, supported by disciplined capital allocation and AI-driven efficiency improvements across finance and other functions.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted OIBDA margin expansion: 150–200 basis points (Fiscal 2026); Adjusted OIBDA margin target: Mid-20s percentage (Short term); Adjusted OIBDA margin target: High 20s percentage (Longer term); AI licensing annualized revenue: $300 million (Current (Suno platform)).