A Business at a Glance
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Churchill Downs Inc
CHDN
$6.2B
Mkt Cap
$86.50
+3.28%
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a current P/E ratio of 16.4, compared to its historical median P/E of 23.3. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.5%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a market capitalization of $6.1B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
Yes, Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 0.52%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 5.64%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) appears fair. The current P/E of 16.4 is 30% below its historical median of 23.3. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 29.4%.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) operates in the Services-Racing, Including Track Operation industry, within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) reported annual revenue of $2.9 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates three primary business segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment generates revenue through pari-mutuel wagering commissions on live and historical races, simulcast fees, admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and food and beverage services at Churchill Downs Racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky—home of the iconic Kentucky Derby, the longest continuously held annual sporting event in the U.S.—and at historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire. The company's Gaming segment operates wholly owned regional casino properties and historical racing machines (HRMs), which represent a high-margin, asset-light technology platform that the company licenses to third-party operators in new markets. Churchill Downs Racetrack, located on 175 acres with approximately 80 live race days annually, features state-of-the-art infrastructure including one of the world's largest 4K video boards, permanent lighting for night racing, and capacity for 1,400 horses, positioning it as an internationally recognized thoroughbred racing destination with strong appeal to luxury sponsors and corporate partners. The company's competitive moat derives from the Kentucky Derby's 150-year heritage, exclusive broadcast rights, premium guest demographics, and an integrated technology platform for HRM operations that enables expansion into new jurisdictions. Revenue is earned through a mix of transactional wagering commissions, recurring sponsorship and licensing fees, capital-intensive live racing operations, and high-margin technology licensing for HRM platforms deployed across multiple states.
【Derby-driven momentum accelerating】 Management expects the 2026 Kentucky Derby to generate $15 million to $20 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA, driven by five catalysts: premium ticketing experiences, a new seven-year NBC broadcast contract providing $10 million in additional Adjusted EBITDA, expanded Derby week race days, increased sponsorship revenue, and completed capital renovations including the Finish Line Suites and Mansion enhancements. The Rose in Northern Virginia is expected to continue ramping with sequential growth in gaming revenue per unit and a permanent venue opening planned for 2027, while the Rockingham Grand Casino in Salem, New Hampshire is under construction with an anticipated mid-2027 opening. The company expects bank covenant net leverage to decline below 4 times during 2026 as new facility investments generate meaningful Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, supported by favorable cash tax benefits from permanent federal tax provisions. Management remains confident in the long-term returns from its disciplined capital investment strategy and expects continued growth across all metrics in 2026.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Derby incremental Adjusted EBITDA | $15 million–$20 million | 2026 |
| NBC broadcast contract Adjusted EBITDA increase | $10 million | 2026 |
| Project capital expenditures | $180 million–$220 million | 2026 |
| Maintenance capital expenditures | $90 million–$110 million | 2026 |
| Rockingham Grand Casino investment | $180 million–$200 million | 2026–2027 |
| Bank covenant net leverage | below 4 times | 2026 |
Derby incremental Adjusted EBITDA (2026): “Looking ahead, we expect the Derby to generate $15 million-$20 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA in 2026.”
NBC broadcast contract Adjusted EBITDA increase (2026): “In April, we negotiated a new seven year contract with NBC that begins next year with the one hundred and fifty second Derby. This will provide a $10,000,000 increase in adjusted EBITDA for 2026.”
Project capital expenditures (2026): “we continue to expect full year 2026 project capital spend of $180 million-$220 million.”
Maintenance capital expenditures (2026): “we continue to expect full year 2026 maintenance capital spend of $90 million-$110 million.”
“we announced plans to invest $180 million-$200 million to develop Rockingham Casino in Salem, New Hampshire.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.9B | 2.9B | 2.7B | 2.5B | 1.8B | 1.6B |
| Net Income | 385M | 380M | 424M | 417M | 439M | 249M |
| EPS | $5.35 | $5.29 | $5.68 | $5.49 | $2.86 | $3.27 |
| Free Cash Flow | 742M | 700M | 688M | 528M | 461M | 420M |
| ROIC | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 10.5% |
| Gross Margin | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Debt/Equity | 4.50 | 5.12 | 4.55 | 5.44 | 8.41 | 6.50 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.45 | $0.44 | $0.41 | $0.38 | $0.18 | $0.33 |
| Operating Income | 692M | 684M | 709M | 564M | 322M | 284M |
| Operating Margin | 23.5% | 23.4% | 25.9% | 22.9% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| ROE | 35.1% | 36.3% | 42.9% | 57.8% | 102.4% | 73.9% |
| Shares Outstanding | 70M | 72M | 75M | 76M | 154M | 76M |
Churchill Downs Inc passes 6 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
Churchill Downs Inc trades at 16.4x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 23.3x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 9.0x vs a median of 21.4x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 8.5%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 6.2%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +47.2%.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a net profit margin of 13.0%. This is a healthy margin.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) generated $700 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.12. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $5.29 in its most recent fiscal year.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a return on equity (ROE) of 36.3%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
The Ledger Terminal provides 16 years of financial data for Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a book value per share of $14.07, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects the 2026 Kentucky Derby to generate $15 million to $20 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA, driven by five catalysts: premium ticketing experiences, a new seven-year NBC broadcast contract providing $10 million in additional Adjusted EBITDA, expanded Derby week race days, increased sponsorship revenue, and completed capital renovations including the Finish Line Suites and Mansion enhancements. The Rose in Northern Virginia is expected to continue ramping with sequential growth in gaming revenue per unit and a permanent venue opening planned for 2027, while the Rockingham Grand Casino in Salem, New Hampshire is under construction with an anticipated mid-2027 opening. The company expects bank covenant net leverage to decline below 4 times during 2026 as new facility investments generate meaningful Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, supported by favorable cash tax benefits from permanent federal tax provisions. Management remains confident in the long-term returns from its disciplined capital investment strategy and expects continued growth across all metrics in 2026.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has provided the following forward guidance: Derby incremental Adjusted EBITDA: $15 million–$20 million (2026); NBC broadcast contract Adjusted EBITDA increase: $10 million (2026); Project capital expenditures: $180 million–$220 million (2026); Maintenance capital expenditures: $90 million–$110 million (2026); Rockingham Grand Casino investment: $180 million–$200 million (2026–2027), plus 1 additional metric.
Bank covenant net leverage (2026): “Based on our expected EBITDA growth and the timing of new facility openings, we expect our bank covenant net leverage to decrease below 4 times during 2026.”
No recent press releases.