A Business at a Glance
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HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.
HOG
$3.1B
Mkt Cap
$25.49
-3.88%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a current P/E ratio of 9.2, compared to its historical median P/E of 8.5. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.8%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a market capitalization of $2.8B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
Yes, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 3.01%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 11.69%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) appears fair. The current P/E of 9.2 is 8% above its historical median of 8.5. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 19.0%.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) operates in the Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts industry, within the Industrials sector.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) reported annual revenue of $4.5 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. operates three reportable segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), which designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles primarily through a global network of 1,174 independent dealership points, along with motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and licensed products; LiveWire, which produces electric motorcycles; and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS), which provides financing and insurance products to customers and dealers. HDMC's motorcycles span six product categories—Grand American Touring, Trike, Cruiser, Sport, Lightweight, and Adventure Touring—with internal combustion engines ranging from greater than 600cc to approximately 2,000cc, and compete on styling, customization, quality, reliability, warranty, and dealer network strength. HDMC distributes through independent dealers in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America, as well as through independent distributors in select overseas markets including India, and operates eCommerce websites in the U.S., Canada, and certain European markets. The company's revenue mix reflects motorcycles as the largest segment (74.3% in 2025), followed by parts and accessories (17.2%), apparel (6.0%), and licensing and other products (2.3%). HDFS operates on a capital-light model following a 2025 transaction with KKR and PIMCO, whereby the company sells approximately two-thirds of future retail loan originations while retaining one-third and generating fee income from servicing and loan originations.
【Strategic reset and portfolio expansion】 Management is executing a structural transformation anchored by approximately $150 million in annual fixed cost reductions expected to impact 2027 and beyond, alongside a more balanced and expanded motorcycle portfolio designed to improve accessibility and drive higher volumes through new entry-level models like the Sprint and Sportster. The company is shifting from broad promotional activity to more targeted and disciplined incentive approaches as dealer inventory normalizes, with expectations for mid-single-digit retail unit growth over the medium term supported by enhanced parts and accessories offerings and improved dealer profitability. Operating margins are expected to face near-term pressure in 2026 due to production running below wholesale volumes, but management anticipates significant margin expansion toward 30% gross margins and operating expenses below 20% of sales over the medium term, with a target of 10%-12% EBITDA margin and HDFS operating income of $125 million-$150 million by 2029. Capital allocation priorities remain focused on debt reduction, share repurchases, and investment in growth opportunities, with the company expecting to return to sustainable growth across key metrics as it executes its new strategic plan announced in conjunction with first quarter 2026 earnings.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| HDMC retail units | 130,000-135,000 | FY2026 |
| HDMC wholesale units | 130,000-135,000 | FY2026 |
| Tariff costs | $75 million-$90 million | FY2026 |
| HDMC operating income | positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million | FY2026 |
| HDFS operating income | $45 million-$60 million | FY2026 |
| LiveWire operating loss | $70 million-$80 million | FY2026 |
| HDFS operating income | $125 million-$150 million | FY2029 |
HDMC retail units (FY2026): “For the full year 2026, the company reaffirms its guidance and continues to expect at HDMC retail units of 130,000-135,000 and wholesale units of 130,000-135,000.”
HDMC wholesale units (FY2026): “For the full year 2026, the company reaffirms its guidance and continues to expect at HDMC retail units of 130,000-135,000 and wholesale units of 130,000-135,000.”
Tariff costs (FY2026): “At this point in time, we expect the cost of increased tariffs to be in a range of $75 million-$90 million for the full year 2026, which is favorable to what we guided to in our prior quarter.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3B | 4.5B | 5.2B | 5.8B | 5.8B | 5.3B |
| Net Income | 230M | 339M | 455M | 707M | 741M | 650M |
| EPS | $1.67 | $2.78 | $3.44 | $4.87 | $4.96 | $4.19 |
| Free Cash Flow | 44M | 415M | 867M | 547M | 397M | 856M |
| ROIC | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% |
| Gross Margin | - | 38.7% | 42.0% | 43.1% | 40.9% | 39.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.70 | 0.97 | 2.22 | 2.21 | 2.40 | 2.72 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.77 | $0.72 | $0.69 | $0.66 | $0.63 | $0.60 |
| Operating Income | 250M | 387M | 417M | 779M | 909M | 823M |
| Operating Margin | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 15.8% | 15.4% |
| ROE | 7.5% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 23.0% | 27.2% | 30.4% |
| Shares Outstanding | 111M | 122M | 132M | 145M | 149M | 155M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6.2B | 6.0B | 6.0B | 5.6B | 5.7B | 5.4B | 4.1B | 5.3B | 5.8B | 5.8B | 5.2B | 4.5B | 4.3B |
| Gross Margin | 43.1% | 44.0% | 42.9% | 42.1% | 41.4% | 39.8% | 39.9% | 39.2% | 40.9% | 43.1% | 42.0% | 38.7% | N/A |
| R&D | 138M | 161M | 172M | 175M | 192M | 217M | 202M | 175M | 159M | 159M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.2B |
| EBIT | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 882M | 714M | 556M | 9.7M | 823M | 909M | 779M | 417M | 387M | 250M |
| Op. Margin | 20.6% | 19.3% | 17.4% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 0.2% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Net Income | 845M | 752M | 692M | 522M | 531M | 424M | 1.3M | 650M | 741M | 707M | 455M | 339M | 230M |
| Net Margin | 13.6% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Non-Recurring | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93M | 32M | 130M | 3.4M | 544K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 0.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| ROE | 28.5% | 31.7% | 36.8% | 27.7% | 29.4% | 23.7% | 0.1% | 30.4% | 27.2% | 23.0% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 7.5% |
| ROA | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.2B | 868M | 1.2B | 976M | 548M | 755M | 1.1B | 569M | 199M |
| Free Cash Flow | 914M | 840M | 918M | 799M | 992M | 687M | 1.0B | 856M | 397M | 547M | 867M | 415M | 44M |
| Owner Earnings | 929M | 873M | 932M | 750M | 906M | 602M | 969M | 768M | 342M | 514M | 854M | 365M | -8.9M |
| CapEx | 232M | 260M | 256M | 206M | 214M | 181M | 131M | 120M | 152M | 207M | 197M | 154M | 155M |
| Maint. CapEx | 179M | 198M | 210M | 222M | 265M | 233M | 186M | 165M | 152M | 158M | 161M | 172M | 175M |
| Growth CapEx | 53M | 62M | 47M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49M | 36M | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 179M | 198M | 210M | 222M | 265M | 233M | 186M | 165M | 152M | 158M | 161M | 172M | 175M |
| CapEx/OCF | 20.3% | 23.6% | 21.8% | 20.5% | 17.7% | 20.9% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 27.7% | 27.5% | 18.5% | 27.0% | 78.0% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 238M | 249M | 252M | 252M | 246M | 237M | 68M | 92M | 93M | 96M | 91M | 86M | 85M |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Share Buybacks | 616M | 1.5B | 465M | 465M | 391M | 297M | 8.0M | 12M | 339M | 364M | 460M | 353M | 330M |
| Buyback Yield | 5.7% | 21.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 11.7% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 38M | 29M | 32M | 32M | 36M | 34M | 23M | 42M | 54M | 83M | 49M | 32M | 33M |
| Debt Repayment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450M | 450M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 4.5B | 6.1B | 6.0B | 6.3B | 6.4B | 6.6B | 5.8B | 5.1B | 5.5B | 5.7B | 5.4B | -116M | 259M |
| Cash & Equiv. | 907M | 722M | 760M | 688M | 1.2B | 834M | 3.3B | 1.9B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.6B | 3.1B | 1.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | 3.8B | 4.8B | 4.7B | 4.6B | 4.9B | 5.1B | 5.9B | 4.6B | 4.5B | 5.0B | 4.5B | 1.6B | 1.1B |
| Debt/Equity | 1.89 | 3.74 | 3.55 | 3.79 | 4.28 | 4.13 | 5.24 | 2.72 | 2.40 | 2.21 | 2.22 | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| Interest Coverage | 307.8 | 95.4 | 35.3 | 28.5 | 23.1 | 17.9 | 0.3 | 26.6 | 29.1 | 25.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Equity | 2.9B | 1.8B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.7B | 2.6B | 2.9B | 3.3B | 3.2B | 3.1B | 3.1B |
| Total Assets | 9.5B | 10.0B | 9.9B | 10.0B | 10.7B | 10.5B | 12.0B | 11.1B | 11.5B | 12.1B | 11.9B | 8.0B | 7.2B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.6B | 8.1B | 8.0B | 8.1B | 8.9B | 8.7B | 10.3B | 8.5B | 8.6B | 8.9B | 8.7B | 4.9B | 196M |
| Intangibles | N/A | 17M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7.5M | 6.4M | 7.0M | 5.6M | N/A | N/A |
| Retained Earnings | 8.5B | 9.0B | 1.3B | 1.6B | 2.0B | 2.2B | 1.3B | 1.8B | 2.5B | 3.1B | 3.5B | 3.7B | 3.7B |
| Working Capital | 1.6B | 1.2B | 991M | 727M | 887M | 1.0B | 1.9B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.8B | 1.4B | 2.9B | 2.3B |
| Current Assets | 3.9B | 4.0B | 3.9B | 3.9B | 4.5B | 4.2B | 5.8B | 4.6B | 4.8B | 5.2B | 5.0B | 5.6B | 4.7B |
| Current Liabilities | 2.4B | 2.7B | 2.9B | 3.2B | 3.6B | 3.2B | 4.0B | 3.3B | 3.5B | 3.4B | 3.6B | 2.7B | 2.5B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 3.88 | 3.69 | 3.83 | 3.02 | 3.19 | 2.68 | 0.01 | 4.19 | 4.96 | 4.87 | 3.44 | 2.78 | 1.67 |
| Owner EPS | 4.27 | 4.28 | 5.16 | 4.34 | 5.44 | 3.81 | 7.46 | 4.95 | 2.29 | 3.54 | 6.45 | 2.99 | -0.08 |
| Book Value | 13.36 | 9.02 | 10.62 | 10.67 | 10.65 | 11.41 | 13.27 | 16.46 | 19.42 | 22.42 | 23.92 | 25.78 | 27.66 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 5.27 | 5.40 | 6.50 | 5.82 | 7.24 | 5.49 | 9.07 | 6.29 | 3.67 | 5.20 | 8.04 | 4.67 | 3.66 |
| Dividends/Share | 1.10 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.46 | 1.48 | 1.50 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Shares Out. | 217.7M | 203.9M | 180.7M | 172.8M | 166.6M | 158.1M | 129.8M | 155.1M | 149.5M | 145.1M | 132.4M | 121.8M | 110.8M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 12.8 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 12.5 | N/A | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 15.3 |
| P/FCF | 11.8 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 64.4 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.0 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 15.4 | 15.7 | 19.9 | 702.0 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 18.3 | N/A | 12.3 |
| Price/Book | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Price/Sales | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| FCF Yield | 8.5% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 20.7% | 13.0% | 24.2% | 16.2% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 22.5% | 16.4% | 1.6% |
| Market Cap | 10.8B | 7.2B | 8.3B | 7.3B | 4.8B | 5.3B | 4.3B | 5.3B | 5.6B | 5.1B | 3.9B | 2.5B | 2.8B |
| Avg. Price | 49.62 | 43.14 | 38.89 | 42.66 | 35.88 | 31.12 | 25.29 | 36.41 | 35.38 | 33.71 | 33.96 | 24.90 | 25.49 |
| Year-End Price | 49.69 | 35.37 | 46.09 | 42.22 | 28.80 | 33.38 | 33.30 | 33.94 | 37.31 | 35.15 | 29.13 | 20.78 | 25.49 |
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. passes 6 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. trades at 9.2x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 8.5x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 6.9x vs a median of 6.9x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 6.8% with a gross margin of 40.8%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 14.7%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is -4.7%.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a net profit margin of 7.6%. This is a modest margin.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) generated $415 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97. This indicates moderate leverage.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.78 in its most recent fiscal year.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a return on equity (ROE) of 10.7%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a 5-year average gross margin of 40.8%. This indicates decent pricing power.
The Ledger Terminal provides 16 years of financial data for HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has a book value per share of $25.78, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management is executing a structural transformation anchored by approximately $150 million in annual fixed cost reductions expected to impact 2027 and beyond, alongside a more balanced and expanded motorcycle portfolio designed to improve accessibility and drive higher volumes through new entry-level models like the Sprint and Sportster. The company is shifting from broad promotional activity to more targeted and disciplined incentive approaches as dealer inventory normalizes, with expectations for mid-single-digit retail unit growth over the medium term supported by enhanced parts and accessories offerings and improved dealer profitability. Operating margins are expected to face near-term pressure in 2026 due to production running below wholesale volumes, but management anticipates significant margin expansion toward 30% gross margins and operating expenses below 20% of sales over the medium term, with a target of 10%-12% EBITDA margin and HDFS operating income of $125 million-$150 million by 2029. Capital allocation priorities remain focused on debt reduction, share repurchases, and investment in growth opportunities, with the company expecting to return to sustainable growth across key metrics as it executes its new strategic plan announced in conjunction with first quarter 2026 earnings.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has provided the following forward guidance: HDMC retail units: 130,000-135,000 (FY2026); HDMC wholesale units: 130,000-135,000 (FY2026); Tariff costs: $75 million-$90 million (FY2026); HDMC operating income: positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million (FY2026); HDFS operating income: $45 million-$60 million (FY2026), plus 2 additional metrics.
HDMC operating income (FY2026): “At HDMC, we expect operating income of positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million.”
HDFS operating income (FY2026): “At HDFS, we expect operating income of $45 million-$60 million.”
LiveWire operating loss (FY2026): “For LiveWire, we are forecasting an operating loss in the range of $70 million-$80 million.”
HDFS operating income (FY2029): “we are targeting $125 million-$150 million in operating income for the business by 2029.”