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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
KDP
$40.3B
Mkt Cap
$29.68
+0.03%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a current P/E ratio of 19.4, compared to its historical median P/E of 27.6. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.2%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a market capitalization of $40.4B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 3.10%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 0.02%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) appears fair. The current P/E of 19.4 is 30% below its historical median of 27.6. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 10.9%.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) operates in the Beverages industry, within the Consumer Defensive sector.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) reported annual revenue of $16.6 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a leading North American beverage company that manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems through a diversified portfolio of over 125 owned, licensed, and partner brands including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Mott's, A&W, Snapple, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and the Keurig brewing system. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages (LRBs sold through direct-store-delivery and warehouse-delivery networks to retailers and fountain customers), U.S. Coffee (single-serve brewers and K-Cup pods manufactured for owned brands and partners like Starbucks and Dunkin'), and International (beverages and coffee products in Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and other markets). KDP's business model combines brand ownership with capital-efficient manufacturing and distribution, leveraging its direct-store-delivery network of approximately 8,100 vehicles in the U.S. and 2,200 in Mexico to control product placement and timing of launches, while also manufacturing and distributing partner brands to maximize scale and provide capital-light exposure to fast-growing segments. The company's competitive advantages include iconic, heritage brands with strong consumer awareness and emotional connections, a powerful integrated distribution network, and partnerships with leading beverage companies that enable access to growth categories without proportional capital investment. Key customers include major retailers (Walmart representing approximately 16% of 2025 net sales), bottlers and distributors with exclusive territorial agreements, away-from-home channel participants, and direct-to-consumer channels through Keurig.com and Keurig.ca.
【Transformation and separation execution】 Management is focused on delivering low double-digit EPS growth in 2026 while seamlessly integrating the JDE Peet's acquisition (which closed in early April 2026) and executing critical milestones toward separating into two independent public companies—Beverage Co and Global Coffee Co—with operational readiness targeted by year-end 2026 and official separation likely in early 2027. U.S. Refreshment Beverages is expected to remain an outsized growth driver with strong momentum from innovation, pricing, and distribution gains across owned brands and partner categories including energy, rapid hydration, and prebiotic CSDs, while U.S. Coffee is anticipated to show progressive improvement in profitability as cost pressures ease and the next-generation Keurig Alta platform launches in late 2026 with potential participation from premium brands like Peet's. International segment is expected to deliver healthy top and bottom-line growth as 2026 progresses, with opportunities for portfolio and distribution expansion in Canada and Mexico, supported by a capital-light concentrate supply model through the evolved Suntory partnership in Europe. The company expects to generate approximately $2.5 billion in aggregate free cash flow in 2026 (including nine months of JDE Peet's contribution), enabling debt paydown and deleveraging toward targeted leverage ratios of 3.5x–4x for Beverage Co and 3.75x–4.25x for Global Coffee Co at separation.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $25.9 billion–$26.4 billion | FY2026 |
| EPS growth | Low double-digit in constant currency | FY2026 |
| Free cash flow | Approximately $2.5 billion | FY2026 |
| Legacy KDP free cash flow | Approximately $2 billion | FY2026 |
| Net leverage | Approximately 4.5x | Mid-year 2026 |
| JDE Peet's net sales contribution | $8.5 billion–$8.7 billion | FY2026 (three quarters) |
Net sales (FY2026): “We expect net sales in a range of $25.9 billion-$26.4 billion, reflecting 4%-6% constant currency growth for legacy KDP, and an $8.5 billion-$8.7 billion contribution from JDE Peet's.”
EPS growth (FY2026): “On the bottom line, we expect low double-digit EPS growth in constant currency, which includes an anticipated 6 percentage points to 7 percentage points contribution from the JDE Peet's acquisition and 4%-6% growth for legacy KDP.”
Free cash flow (FY2026): “Incorporating the net cash flow contribution from JDE Peet's this year, including the impact of incremental financing costs and one-time deal and transformation-related expenses, we expect approximately $2.5 billion of aggregate company free cash flow in 2026.”
Legacy KDP free cash flow (FY2026): “continue to expect legacy KDP will generate approximately $2 billion for the full- year.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.9B | 16.6B | 15.4B | 14.8B | 14.1B | 12.7B |
| Net Income | 1.8B | 2.1B | 1.4B | 2.2B | 1.4B | 2.1B |
| EPS | $1.35 | $1.53 | $1.05 | $1.55 | $1.01 | $1.50 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.7B | 904M | 2.5B | 2.5B |
| ROIC | 5.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Gross Margin | 53.8% | 54.2% | 55.6% | 54.5% | 52.1% | 55.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.91 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 1.91 | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.92 | $0.92 | $0.89 | $0.83 | $0.78 | $0.71 |
| Operating Income | 3.5B | 3.6B | 2.6B | 3.2B | 2.6B | 2.9B |
| Operating Margin | 20.8% | 21.5% | 16.9% | 21.5% | 18.5% | 22.8% |
| ROE | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,360M | 1,359M | 1,372M | 1,407M | 1,422M | 1,431M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6.1B | 6.3B | 6.4B | 6.7B | 7.4B | 11.1B | 11.6B | 12.7B | 14.1B | 14.8B | 15.4B | 16.6B | 16.9B |
| Gross Margin | 59.3% | 59.3% | 59.9% | 30.6% | 52.2% | 57.0% | 55.8% | 55.0% | 52.1% | 54.5% | 55.6% | 54.2% | 53.8% |
| R&D | 18M | 19M | 20M | 56M | 64M | 81M | 69M | 66M | 65M | 66M | 70M | 70M | 70M |
| SG&A | 2.3B | 2.3B | 2.3B | 1.1B | 2.6B | 4.0B | 4.0B | 4.2B | 4.6B | 4.9B | 5.0B | 5.4B | 5.5B |
| EBIT | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 897M | 1.2B | 2.4B | 2.5B | 2.9B | 2.6B | 3.2B | 2.6B | 3.6B | 3.5B |
| Op. Margin | 19.3% | 20.7% | 22.3% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 21.4% | 21.3% | 22.8% | 18.5% | 21.5% | 16.9% | 21.5% | 20.8% |
| Net Income | 703M | 764M | 847M | 378M | 586M | 1.3B | 1.3B | 2.1B | 1.4B | 2.2B | 1.4B | 2.1B | 1.8B |
| Net Margin | 11.5% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 10.8% |
| Non-Recurring | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44M | 165M | 247M | 303M | 277M | 252M | 36M | 381M | 65M | 65M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 15.6% | 17.1% | 19.2% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% |
| ROE | 30.8% | 34.1% | 39.2% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| ROA | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.0B | 1.0B | 961M | 1.7B | 1.6B | 2.5B | 2.5B | 2.9B | 2.8B | 1.3B | 2.2B | 2.0B | 2.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | 852M | 835M | 781M | 1.7B | 1.4B | 2.1B | 2.0B | 2.5B | 2.5B | 904M | 1.7B | 1.5B | 1.6B |
| Owner Earnings | 859M | 865M | 817M | 1.5B | 902M | 1.7B | 1.4B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 674M | 1.6B | 1.3B | -653M |
| CapEx | 170M | 179M | 180M | 66M | 180M | 330M | 461M | 423M | 353M | 425M | 563M | 486M | 482M |
| Maint. CapEx | 115M | 105M | 99M | 238M | 676M | 729M | 1.0B | 544M | 537M | 539M | 555M | 593M | 2.6B |
| Growth CapEx | 55M | 74M | 81M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0M | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 115M | 105M | 99M | 238M | 676M | 729M | 1.0B | 544M | 537M | 539M | 555M | 593M | 2.6B |
| CapEx/OCF | 16.6% | 17.7% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 32.0% | 25.4% | 24.4% | 23.4% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 317M | 355M | 386M | 414M | 232M | 844M | 846M | 955M | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.3B |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| Share Buybacks | 400M | 521M | 519M | 399M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 379M | 706M | 1.1B | 9.0M | 9.0M |
| Buyback Yield | 22.5% | 22.7% | 23.8% | 3.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 48M | 44M | 45M | 58M | 35M | 64M | 85M | 88M | 52M | 116M | 98M | 97M | 105M |
| Debt Repayment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9B | 0 | 1.9B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16M | 134M | 134M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 2.3B | 2.4B | 2.6B | 5.0B | 15.6B | 29.8B | 21.2B | 17.3B | 13.1B | 48.7B | 13.9B | 14.4B | 22.0B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 237M | 911M | 1.8B | 90M | 83M | 75M | 240M | 567M | 535M | 267M | 510M | 1.0B | 898M |
| Long-Term Debt | 2.6B | 2.9B | 4.5B | 4.9B | 14.2B | 12.8B | 11.1B | 11.6B | 11.1B | 9.9B | 12.9B | 13.0B | 20.9B |
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | 1.55 | 2.09 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 1.28 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 0.54 | 1.91 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.91 |
| Interest Coverage | 10.8 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 78.5 | 94.1 | 86.1 |
| Equity | 2.3B | 2.2B | 2.1B | 7.4B | 22.5B | 23.3B | 23.8B | 25.0B | 25.1B | 25.7B | 24.2B | 25.5B | 25.3B |
| Total Assets | 8.3B | 8.9B | 9.8B | 15.7B | 48.9B | 49.5B | 49.8B | 50.6B | 51.8B | 52.1B | 53.4B | 55.5B | 73.1B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.0B | 6.7B | 7.7B | 8.1B | 26.4B | 26.3B | 25.9B | 25.6B | 26.7B | 26.5B | 29.2B | 29.9B | 39.5B |
| Intangibles | 2.7B | 2.7B | 2.7B | 3.8B | 24.0B | 24.1B | 24.0B | 23.9B | 23.2B | 23.3B | 23.6B | 23.7B | 23.7B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.8B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 914M | 1.2B | 1.6B | 2.1B | 3.2B | 3.5B | 4.6B | 4.8B | 5.6B | 5.6B |
| Working Capital | 173M | 234M | 1.7B | -962M | -3.5B | -4.2B | -5.3B | -3.4B | -4.3B | -5.5B | -4.1B | -3.0B | 13.1B |
| Current Assets | 1.2B | 1.8B | 2.7B | 1.1B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 3.1B | 3.8B | 3.4B | 4.0B | 5.3B | 23.1B |
| Current Liabilities | 1.0B | 1.6B | 1.1B | 2.0B | 5.7B | 6.5B | 7.7B | 6.5B | 8.1B | 8.9B | 8.1B | 8.3B | 10.0B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 1.50 | 1.01 | 1.55 | 1.05 | 1.53 | 1.35 |
| Owner EPS | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.23 | 0.82 | 1.18 | 0.95 | 1.57 | 1.58 | 0.48 | 1.14 | 0.96 | -0.48 |
| Book Value | 1.45 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.15 | 20.38 | 16.32 | 16.73 | 17.45 | 17.67 | 18.25 | 17.66 | 18.78 | 18.57 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.27 | 1.46 | 1.74 | 1.72 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 0.94 | 1.62 | 1.47 | 3.27 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Shares Out. | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.5B | 6.4B | 1.1B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 27.3 | 39.9 | 27.9 | 30.0 | 21.5 | 32.1 | 20.0 | 29.3 | 18.1 | 22.0 |
| P/FCF | 16.7 | 22.0 | 22.4 | 49.1 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 19.9 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 48.3 | 25.5 | 24.9 | 25.5 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 15.2 | 32.6 | 21.4 | 22.2 | 19.8 | 22.2 | 18.6 | 22.9 | 15.3 | 17.7 |
| Price/Book | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Price/Sales | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| FCF Yield | 47.9% | 36.4% | 35.8% | 16.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Market Cap | 1.8B | 2.3B | 2.2B | 10.3B | 23.4B | 35.0B | 39.7B | 46.2B | 46.1B | 43.6B | 42.3B | 37.5B | 40.4B |
| Avg. Price | 7.19 | 9.97 | 11.66 | 12.00 | 17.77 | 23.66 | 24.38 | 30.44 | 33.63 | 30.41 | 31.46 | 30.38 | 29.68 |
| Year-End Price | 9.01 | 11.92 | 11.70 | 12.85 | 21.17 | 24.56 | 27.86 | 32.31 | 32.44 | 31.00 | 30.79 | 27.63 | 29.68 |
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. passes 5 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. trades at 19.4x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 27.6x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 26.8x vs a median of 21.1x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 5.2% with a gross margin of 54.3%. Total shareholder yield (dividends) is 3.1%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is -6.6%.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a net profit margin of 12.5%. This is a healthy margin.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60. This indicates moderate leverage.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53 in its most recent fiscal year.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a return on equity (ROE) of 8.4%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a 5-year average gross margin of 54.3%. This high margin suggests strong pricing power and a potential competitive moat.
The Ledger Terminal provides 18 years of financial data for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has a book value per share of $18.78, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management is focused on delivering low double-digit EPS growth in 2026 while seamlessly integrating the JDE Peet's acquisition (which closed in early April 2026) and executing critical milestones toward separating into two independent public companies—Beverage Co and Global Coffee Co—with operational readiness targeted by year-end 2026 and official separation likely in early 2027. U.S. Refreshment Beverages is expected to remain an outsized growth driver with strong momentum from innovation, pricing, and distribution gains across owned brands and partner categories including energy, rapid hydration, and prebiotic CSDs, while U.S. Coffee is anticipated to show progressive improvement in profitability as cost pressures ease and the next-generation Keurig Alta platform launches in late 2026 with potential participation from premium brands like Peet's. International segment is expected to deliver healthy top and bottom-line growth as 2026 progresses, with opportunities for portfolio and distribution expansion in Canada and Mexico, supported by a capital-light concentrate supply model through the evolved Suntory partnership in Europe. The company expects to generate approximately $2.5 billion in aggregate free cash flow in 2026 (including nine months of JDE Peet's contribution), enabling debt paydown and deleveraging toward targeted leverage ratios of 3.5x–4x for Beverage Co and 3.75x–4.25x for Global Coffee Co at separation.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has provided the following forward guidance: Net sales: $25.9 billion–$26.4 billion (FY2026); EPS growth: Low double-digit in constant currency (FY2026); Free cash flow: Approximately $2.5 billion (FY2026); Legacy KDP free cash flow: Approximately $2 billion (FY2026); Net leverage: Approximately 4.5x (Mid-year 2026), plus 1 additional metric.
Net leverage (Mid-year 2026): “Based on this financing mix, we continue to expect net leverage of approximately 4.5x at mid-year.”
JDE Peet's net sales contribution (FY2026 (three quarters)): “an $8.5 billion-$8.7 billion contribution from JDE Peet's.”