A Business at a Glance
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
LOPE
$3.9B
Mkt Cap
$139.94
+0.52%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a current P/E ratio of 18.2, compared to its historical median P/E of 19.1. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 35.0%. This indicates strong capital allocation and a potential competitive advantage.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a market capitalization of $3.7B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) does not currently pay a regular dividend. However, the company returns capital to shareholders through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 8.42%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) appears fair. The current P/E of 18.2 is 5% below its historical median of 19.1. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 6.9%.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) operates in the Services-Educational Services industry, within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Grand Canyon University operates as a for-profit higher education provider serving students through three primary pillars: online programs, traditional ground campus education, and hybrid campus locations. The company earns revenue through tuition and fees charged to students enrolled in degree and certificate programs, with service revenue representing the primary income stream. The business model is characterized by high enrollment leverage, where incremental students generate significant contribution margin after covering variable instructional costs, and the company benefits from contract modifications with university partners that have reduced certain reimbursable costs. Distribution occurs through direct enrollment channels across its own ground campus in Arizona, a growing network of hybrid campus locations operated in partnership with other institutions, and a substantial online platform serving students nationally and internationally. The company's competitive advantages include low tuition pricing relative to peers, strong graduate employment outcomes particularly in healthcare and nursing fields, accelerating adoption of AI-driven curriculum and student support tools, and a 20th-ranked physical campus. The customer base spans traditional college-age students seeking affordable bachelor's degrees, working professionals pursuing online credentials, healthcare career aspirants, and students transitioning through teacher education and workforce development programs, with geographic presence concentrated in the United States but expanding through hybrid partnerships.
【Enrollment momentum with margin expansion】 Management expects continued strong enrollment growth across all three pillars in 2026, with new online enrollments anticipated to grow in the mid-to-high single digits and hybrid campus new starts projected to expand despite some capacity constraints at existing locations. The company anticipates operating margin expansion in the second half of 2026 as revenue leverage offsets ongoing investments in partner growth initiatives and higher-cost healthcare licensure programs, with full-year margins expected to improve year-over-year. Capital allocation priorities remain focused on aggressive share repurchases, with the board viewing the stock as materially undervalued relative to enterprise value-to-adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow yield metrics compared to S&P 500 peers. Management remains confident that AI-enabled curriculum and operational improvements will strengthen competitive advantages and support achievement of long-term enrollment growth objectives of 5–7% annually.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| CapEx | $30 million–$35 million | FY2026 |
| Effective tax rate | 24.4% (full year) | FY2026 |
CapEx (FY2026): “We anticipate CapEx for 2026 will be between $30 million-$35 million.”
Effective tax rate (FY2026): “We continue to believe the effective tax rate for the remaining three quarters of 2026 will be 24.9%, 24.9%, and 24.3%, with a full year tax rate of 24.4%.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.0B | 961M | 911M | 897M |
| Net Income | 220M | 216M | 226M | 205M | 185M | 260M |
| EPS | $8.04 | $7.71 | $7.73 | $6.80 | $5.73 | $5.92 |
| Free Cash Flow | 260M | 239M | 253M | 199M | 186M | 284M |
| ROIC | 47.1% | 40.5% | 41.1% | 38.3% | 33.7% | 21.4% |
| Gross Margin | - | 31.1% | 33.8% | 32.8% | 33.5% | 38.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.00 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Operating Income | 273M | 266M | 275M | 249M | 238M | 282M |
| Operating Margin | 24.3% | 24.0% | 26.7% | 25.9% | 26.1% | 31.5% |
| ROE | 31.6% | 28.2% | 30.1% | 30.2% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding | 27M | 28M | 29M | 30M | 32M | 44M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 691M | 778M | 873M | 974M | 846M | 779M | 844M | 897M | 911M | 961M | 1.0B | 1.1B | 1.1B |
| Gross Margin | 36.4% | 37.2% | 35.7% | 37.5% | 38.5% | 43.6% | 41.0% | 38.9% | 33.5% | 32.8% | 33.8% | 31.1% | N/A |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 40M | 42M | 28M | 27M | 30M | 44M | 43M | 42M | 45M | 43M | 46M | 47M | 47M |
| EBIT | 181M | 210M | 237M | 283M | 258M | 265M | 277M | 282M | 238M | 249M | 275M | 266M | 273M |
| Op. Margin | 26.2% | 27.0% | 27.2% | 29.0% | 30.5% | 34.1% | 32.9% | 31.5% | 26.1% | 25.9% | 26.7% | 24.0% | 24.3% |
| Net Income | 111M | 131M | 149M | 203M | 229M | 259M | 257M | 260M | 185M | 205M | 226M | 216M | 220M |
| Net Margin | 16.1% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 20.9% | 27.1% | 33.3% | 30.5% | 29.0% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| Non-Recurring | 2.5M | 2.8M | 0 | 0 | 3.0M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 28.6% | 23.9% | 20.1% | 25.8% | 21.7% | 16.3% | 14.2% | 21.4% | 33.7% | 38.3% | 41.1% | 40.5% | 47.1% |
| ROE | 27.2% | 24.2% | 21.5% | 23.1% | 20.8% | 19.5% | 17.0% | 19.9% | 22.0% | 30.2% | 30.1% | 28.2% | 31.6% |
| ROA | 16.3% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 17.2% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 23.3% | 23.2% | 21.5% | 22.7% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 167M | 185M | 238M | 305M | 199M | 306M | 309M | 313M | 221M | 244M | 290M | 273M | 294M |
| Free Cash Flow | -1.6M | -20M | 59M | 191M | 105M | 284M | 279M | 284M | 186M | 199M | 253M | 239M | 260M |
| Owner Earnings | 130M | 146M | 183M | 239M | 144M | 278M | 282M | 286M | 191M | 214M | 256M | 229M | 233M |
| CapEx | 169M | 205M | 178M | 114M | 95M | 22M | 29M | 29M | 35M | 45M | 37M | 35M | 34M |
| Maint. CapEx | 29M | 36M | 45M | 54M | 36M | 18M | 21M | 21M | 22M | 23M | 28M | 31M | 58M |
| Growth CapEx | 139M | 169M | 133M | 60M | 59M | 4.0M | 8.6M | 7.4M | 13M | 21M | 9.5M | 3.7M | 0 |
| D&A | 29M | 36M | 45M | 54M | 36M | 18M | 21M | 21M | 22M | 23M | 28M | 31M | 58M |
| CapEx/OCF | 101.0% | 117.7% | 75.0% | 37.3% | 47.5% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 18.3% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 11.6% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Share Buybacks | 5.3M | 16M | 20M | 11M | 25M | 44M | 134M | 804M | 604M | 137M | 173M | 265M | 315M |
| Buyback Yield | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 21.4% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 7.9M | 3.9M | 9.9M | 13M | 20M | 10M | 5.7M | 5.5M | 8.0M | 6.9M | 6.5M | 14M | 2.3M |
| Debt Repayment | 6.7M | 6.8M | 7.2M | 6.8M | 6.7M | 92M | 33M | 108M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | -23M | 130M | 46M | -169M | -71M | 71M | -51M | -432M | -104M | -145M | -216M | -193M | -252M |
| Cash & Equiv. | 65M | 23M | 46M | 153M | 120M | 122M | 246M | 601M | 120M | 146M | 325M | 112M | 252M |
| Long-Term Debt | 86M | 80M | 98M | 67M | 60M | 141M | 108M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Interest Coverage | 100.4 | 168.6 | 178.6 | 130.4 | 168.1 | 23.4 | 63.0 | 78.4 | 118750.0 | 7553.2 | 68849.8 | N/A | N/A |
| Equity | 476M | 610M | 774M | 986M | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.0B | 638M | 718M | 784M | 747M | 696M |
| Total Assets | 756M | 892M | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.2B | 833M | 930M | 1.0B | 992M | 968M |
| Total Liabilities | 279M | 282M | 319M | 318M | 110M | 247M | 270M | 178M | 195M | 212M | 235M | 245M | 272M |
| Intangibles | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 202M | 194M | 185M | 177M | 168M | 160M | 152M | 149M |
| Retained Earnings | 371M | 502M | 651M | 854M | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.6B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.2B | 2.5B | 2.7B | 2.8B |
| Working Capital | 88M | 26M | 3.3M | 137M | 229M | 113M | 215M | 583M | 174M | 240M | 309M | 290M | 242M |
| Current Assets | 267M | 215M | 230M | 375M | 309M | 208M | 334M | 681M | 273M | 338M | 420M | 400M | 380M |
| Current Liabilities | 179M | 189M | 227M | 238M | 81M | 95M | 119M | 98M | 100M | 97M | 111M | 110M | 138M |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 2.37 | 2.78 | 3.15 | 4.22 | 4.73 | 5.37 | 5.45 | 5.92 | 5.73 | 6.80 | 7.73 | 7.71 | 8.04 |
| Owner EPS | 2.76 | 3.08 | 3.88 | 4.95 | 2.98 | 5.75 | 5.98 | 6.51 | 5.92 | 7.09 | 8.74 | 8.16 | 8.74 |
| Book Value | 10.13 | 12.91 | 16.41 | 20.46 | 25.07 | 29.91 | 33.36 | 23.76 | 19.78 | 23.82 | 26.78 | 26.64 | 26.07 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 3.55 | 3.92 | 5.04 | 6.33 | 4.11 | 6.35 | 6.54 | 7.12 | 6.85 | 8.08 | 9.91 | 9.75 | 10.42 |
| Dividends/Share | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Shares Out. | 47.0M | 47.3M | 47.1M | 48.2M | 48.4M | 48.3M | 47.2M | 44.0M | 32.2M | 30.1M | 29.3M | 28.0M | 26.7M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 19.9 | 14.6 | 18.7 | 21.4 | 20.1 | 18.1 | 17.4 | 14.4 | 18.4 | 19.5 | 21.2 | 21.8 | 17.4 |
| P/FCF | N/A | N/A | 46.6 | 22.8 | 44.0 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 18.3 | 20.1 | 19.0 | 19.8 | 14.4 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.8 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 17.3 | 17.4 | 14.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 12.8 |
| Price/Book | 4.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| Price/Sales | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| FCF Yield | -0.1% | -1.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
| Market Cap | 2.2B | 1.9B | 2.8B | 4.4B | 4.6B | 4.7B | 4.5B | 3.8B | 3.4B | 4.0B | 4.8B | 4.7B | 3.7B |
| Avg. Price | 44.82 | 41.95 | 43.23 | 77.11 | 109.82 | 108.51 | 86.82 | 92.41 | 91.57 | 115.75 | 141.43 | 183.15 | 139.94 |
| Year-End Price | 47.10 | 40.50 | 58.84 | 90.42 | 94.97 | 96.95 | 94.86 | 85.43 | 105.34 | 132.56 | 163.76 | 168.34 | 139.94 |
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. passes 6 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at 18.2x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 19.1x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 15.9x vs a median of 19.4x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 35.0% with a gross margin of 34.0%. Total shareholder yield (buybacks) is 8.4%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +10.7%.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) reported annual revenue of $1.1 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a net profit margin of 19.5%. This is a healthy margin.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) generated $239 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14. This indicates a conservatively financed balance sheet.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $7.71 in its most recent fiscal year.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a return on equity (ROE) of 28.2%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a 5-year average gross margin of 34.0%. This indicates decent pricing power.
The Ledger Terminal provides 16 years of financial data for Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a book value per share of $26.64, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects continued strong enrollment growth across all three pillars in 2026, with new online enrollments anticipated to grow in the mid-to-high single digits and hybrid campus new starts projected to expand despite some capacity constraints at existing locations. The company anticipates operating margin expansion in the second half of 2026 as revenue leverage offsets ongoing investments in partner growth initiatives and higher-cost healthcare licensure programs, with full-year margins expected to improve year-over-year. Capital allocation priorities remain focused on aggressive share repurchases, with the board viewing the stock as materially undervalued relative to enterprise value-to-adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow yield metrics compared to S&P 500 peers. Management remains confident that AI-enabled curriculum and operational improvements will strengthen competitive advantages and support achievement of long-term enrollment growth objectives of 5–7% annually.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has provided the following forward guidance: CapEx: $30 million–$35 million (FY2026); Effective tax rate: 24.4% (full year) (FY2026).