A Business at a Glance
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NRG ENERGY, INC.
NRG
$28.0B
Mkt Cap
$141.03
-1.37%
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a current P/E ratio of 35.2, compared to its historical median P/E of 14.7. The stock is currently considered Expensive based on its historical valuation range.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.0%. This indicates solid capital allocation.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a market capitalization of $30.0B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 1.42%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 4.93%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) appears expensive. The current P/E of 35.2 is 140% above its historical median of 14.7. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is -4.6%.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) operates in the Electric Services industry, within the Utilities sector.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) reported annual revenue of $30.7 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
NRG Energy is a diversified energy company serving approximately 8 million residential customers (6 million retail energy and 2 million smart home) across North America, alongside large commercial, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers through brands including NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint Smart Home. The company operates an integrated business model combining retail electricity and natural gas sales with approximately 12 GW of owned competitive power generation capacity, primarily in Texas, and a natural gas portfolio serving approximately 1,900 MMDth annually, enabling it to supply a portion of retail customers from its own assets while reducing transaction costs and credit exposure. NRG's revenue model is diversified across fixed, indexed, and month-to-month pricing contracts for residential customers (typically one month to five years) and business customers (typically one to five years), supplemented by smart home security and automation services that deepen customer relationships and support long-term engagement. The company's competitive advantages include its multi-brand strategy leveraging diverse sales channels, a vertically integrated generation and retail platform that provides operational flexibility and cost efficiency, and its scale in demand response and virtual power plant capabilities that are uniquely supported by both retail electricity and smart home technology. NRG operates across 25 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and 8 Canadian provinces, with particular strength in Texas where its retail brands collectively hold the largest share of competitively served residential electric customers, and serves as a leading business-to-business provider of power and natural gas in North America. In January 2026, NRG completed the acquisition of the LS Power Portfolio, adding 13 GW of natural gas-fired and dual fuel generation capacity across nine states and CPower, a demand response platform, further expanding its generation footprint and capabilities.
【Sustained demand growth and integration focus】 Management is reaffirming 2026 financial guidance and emphasizing strong operational execution, with the LS Power integration progressing ahead of plan and generation assets performing as expected. The company is experiencing a sustained shift in power demand outlooks across its markets, with preliminary long-term load forecasts showing a pipeline of large load requests reaching over 367 GW by 2033, more than four times today's record peak in under a decade, driven significantly by AI infrastructure investment and data center expansion. NRG is targeting at least 1 GW-plus of signed long-term data center power contracts under its Bring Your Own Power approach and expects its Texas residential virtual power plant to reach 1 GW of capacity, leveraging its unique combination of retail electricity and smart home technology at scale. The company remains committed to disciplined capital allocation, with plans to execute approximately $1 billion toward debt repayment in 2026 as part of its post-acquisition deleveraging strategy targeting 3x net leverage, while maintaining its robust return of capital program of at least $1.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Management continues to target at least 14% annual growth in adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow before growth per share through 2030, with the long-term outlook holding energy and capacity prices flat and not including upside from rising power prices, new data center deals, or conversion opportunities with the acquired LS portfolio.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $5.575 billion | FY2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | $8.90 per share | FY2026 |
| Free cash flow before growth | $3.05 billion | FY2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | greater than $14 per share | FY2030 |
| Free cash flow before growth per share | greater than $22 per share | FY2030 |
| Long-term adjusted EPS and FCFBG per share CAGR | 14%+ | 2026-2030 |
| Debt repayment | approximately $1 billion | FY2026 |
Adjusted EBITDA (FY2026): “Midpoints for our reaffirmed guidance ranges are as follows: adjusted EBITDA is $5.575 billion”
Adjusted EPS (FY2026): “adjusted EPS is $8.90 per share”
Free cash flow before growth (FY2026): “free cash flow before growth is $3.05 billion”
Adjusted EPS (FY2030): “we are forecasting adjusted EPS of greater than $14 per share by 2030”
Free cash flow before growth per share (FY2030): “By 2030, we expect a further increase to greater than $22 per share”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 32.4B | 30.7B | 28.1B | 28.8B | 31.5B | 27.0B |
| Net Income | 172M | 797M | 1.1B | -256M | 1.2B | 2.2B |
| EPS | $0.85 | $4.01 | $4.99 | $-1.12 | $5.17 | $8.93 |
| Free Cash Flow | -358M | 766M | 1.8B | -819M | -7.0M | 224M |
| ROIC | 3.9% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 12.9% | 28.3% |
| Gross Margin | - | 19.4% | 21.4% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | 9.89 | 4.44 | 3.78 | 2.17 | 2.30 |
| Dividends/Share | $2.00 | $1.76 | $1.63 | $1.51 | $1.40 | $1.30 |
| Operating Income | 1.0B | 1.8B | 2.4B | 384M | 2.0B | 3.3B |
| Operating Margin | 3.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 6.4% | 12.4% |
| ROE | 3.5% | 38.3% | 39.3% | -7.6% | 32.9% | 82.8% |
| Shares Outstanding | 213M | 199M | 212M | 229M | 236M | 245M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 15.9B | 12.3B | 8.9B | 9.1B | 9.5B | 9.8B | 9.1B | 27.0B | 31.5B | 28.8B | 28.1B | 30.7B | 32.4B |
| Gross Margin | 25.6% | 27.0% | 25.1% | 24.1% | 25.0% | 25.6% | 28.1% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 21.4% | 19.4% | N/A |
| R&D | 88M | 154M | 48M | 22M | 11M | 7.0M | 8.0M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 836M | 799M | 760M | 810M | 1.3B | 1.1B | 2.1B | 2.3B | 2.6B | 2.6B |
| EBIT | 1.3B | -4.1B | -931M | -741M | 982M | 1.3B | 1.1B | 3.3B | 2.0B | 384M | 2.4B | 1.8B | 1.0B |
| Op. Margin | 8.0% | -32.9% | -10.4% | -8.2% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Net Income | 78M | -6.4B | -701M | -2.2B | 268M | 4.4B | 510M | 2.2B | 1.2B | -256M | 1.1B | 797M | 172M |
| Net Margin | 0.5% | -51.9% | -7.9% | -23.7% | 2.8% | 45.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | -0.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Non-Recurring | 97M | 1.4B | 337M | 1.6B | 238M | 51M | 98M | 296M | 232M | 1.6B | 207M | -25M | -25M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 4.5% | -22.9% | -3.1% | -13.6% | 12.7% | 70.0% | 10.6% | 28.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% |
| ROE | 0.7% | -74.8% | -14.2% | -67.1% | 73.0% | 267.7% | 30.6% | 82.8% | 32.9% | -7.6% | 39.3% | 38.3% | 3.5% |
| ROA | 0.2% | -17.5% | -2.2% | -8.0% | 1.6% | 38.3% | 3.7% | 11.5% | 4.7% | -0.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.5B | 1.3B | 1.9B | 1.6B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.8B | 493M | 360M | -221M | 2.3B | 1.9B | 889M |
| Free Cash Flow | 601M | 320M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 989M | 1.2B | 1.6B | 224M | -7.0M | -819M | 1.8B | 766M | -358M |
| Owner Earnings | -55M | -41M | 1.1B | 979M | 931M | 1.0B | 1.4B | -313M | -388M | -1.6B | 801M | 373M | -769M |
| CapEx | 909M | 1.0B | 544M | 254M | 388M | 228M | 230M | 269M | 367M | 598M | 472M | 1.1B | 1.2B |
| Maint. CapEx | 1.5B | 1.4B | 756M | 596M | 421M | 373M | 435M | 785M | 720M | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.5B |
| Growth CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 1.5B | 1.4B | 756M | 596M | 421M | 373M | 435M | 785M | 720M | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.5B |
| CapEx/OCF | 60.2% | 98.0% | 46.7% | 15.8% | 28.2% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 54.6% | 101.9% | N/A | 20.5% | 60.0% | 140.3% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 196M | 201M | 76M | 38M | 37M | 32M | 295M | 319M | 332M | 381M | 405M | 411M | 425M |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Share Buybacks | 39M | 437M | 0 | 0 | 1.3B | 1.4B | 229M | 48M | 600M | 1.1B | 935M | 1.3B | 1.5B |
| Buyback Yield | 0.5% | 14.6% | N/A | N/A | 12.7% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 42M | 39M | 10M | 35M | 25M | 20M | 22M | 21M | 28M | 101M | 102M | 134M | 146M |
| Debt Repayment | 3.8B | 1.4B | 5.1B | 1.9B | 1.7B | 26M | 5.0M | 1.4B | 0 | 3.0B | 1.1B | 1.6B | 1.6B |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 18.1B | 18.6B | 15.9B | 8.6B | 5.9B | 6.1B | 5.1B | 8.0B | 7.9B | 10.4B | 10.0B | 11.9B | 22.9B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 2.1B | 853M | 591M | 770M | 563M | 345M | 3.9B | 250M | 430M | 541M | 966M | 4.7B | 212M |
| Long-Term Debt | 19.7B | 19.0B | 16.0B | 9.2B | 6.4B | 5.8B | 8.7B | 8.0B | 8.0B | 10.1B | 9.8B | 16.4B | 19.8B |
| Debt/Equity | 1.73 | 3.58 | 3.71 | 4.77 | -5.28 | 3.89 | 5.38 | 2.30 | 2.17 | 3.78 | 4.44 | 9.89 | 4.75 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.1 | -4.3 | -1.6 | -1.3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 8.4 |
| Equity | 11.7B | 5.4B | 4.4B | 2.0B | -1.2B | 1.7B | 1.7B | 3.6B | 3.8B | 2.9B | 2.5B | 1.7B | 4.9B |
| Total Assets | 40.5B | 32.9B | 30.7B | 23.4B | 10.6B | 12.5B | 14.9B | 23.2B | 29.1B | 26.0B | 24.0B | 29.1B | 40.1B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.5B | 27.1B | 26.2B | 21.3B | 11.9B | 10.9B | 13.2B | 19.6B | 25.3B | 23.1B | 21.5B | 27.5B | 35.2B |
| Intangibles | 2.6B | 2.3B | 2.0B | 507M | 591M | 789M | 668M | 2.5B | 2.1B | 3.9B | 2.9B | 2.3B | 2.3B |
| Retained Earnings | 3.6B | -3.0B | -3.8B | -6.3B | -6.0B | -1.6B | -1.4B | 464M | 1.4B | 820M | 1.5B | 2.0B | 2.0B |
| Working Capital | 3.5B | 3.0B | 2.0B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 729M | 4.1B | 2.9B | 3.2B | 227M | 151M | 5.1B | -1.9B |
| Current Assets | 8.4B | 7.4B | 6.7B | 4.4B | 3.6B | 3.1B | 6.0B | 10.8B | 16.2B | 9.7B | 9.0B | 13.1B | 9.9B |
| Current Liabilities | 4.9B | 4.4B | 4.7B | 3.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 1.9B | 7.9B | 13.0B | 9.5B | 8.8B | 8.0B | 11.8B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 0.23 | -19.46 | -2.22 | -6.79 | 0.87 | 16.81 | 2.07 | 8.93 | 5.17 | -1.12 | 4.99 | 4.01 | 0.85 |
| Owner EPS | -0.16 | -0.12 | 3.62 | 3.09 | 3.02 | 3.86 | 5.60 | -1.28 | -1.64 | -7.07 | 3.78 | 1.88 | -3.61 |
| Book Value | 34.43 | 16.52 | 14.08 | 6.21 | -4.01 | 6.28 | 6.82 | 14.70 | 16.21 | 12.71 | 11.69 | 8.46 | 22.91 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 4.45 | 4.10 | 6.04 | 5.08 | 4.47 | 5.35 | 7.46 | 2.01 | 1.52 | -0.97 | 10.88 | 9.63 | 7.91 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.24 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.51 | 1.63 | 1.76 | 2.00 |
| Shares Out. | 339.1M | 329.0M | 315.8M | 317.1M | 308.0M | 264.0M | 246.4M | 244.9M | 236.2M | 228.6M | 212.0M | 198.8M | 212.8M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 94.6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 36.8 | 1.9 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 5.7 | N/A | 18.1 | 40.0 | 165.8 |
| P/FCF | 12.3 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 41.5 | N/A | N/A | 10.5 | 41.6 | N/A |
| EV/EBIT | 18.7 | N/A | 68.9 | N/A | 15.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 56.5 | 12.0 | 21.1 | 51.0 |
| Price/Book | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3.7 | N/A | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 19.0 | 6.2 |
| Price/Sales | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| FCF Yield | 8.1% | 10.7% | 42.4% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 21.5% | 2.4% | -0.1% | -7.2% | 9.6% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
| Market Cap | 7.4B | 3.0B | 3.2B | 7.3B | 9.9B | 8.6B | 7.5B | 9.3B | 6.9B | 11.4B | 19.2B | 31.9B | 30.0B |
| Avg. Price | 23.98 | 16.41 | 10.37 | 17.25 | 27.25 | 32.09 | 28.22 | 34.52 | 36.23 | 35.42 | 74.58 | 137.48 | 141.03 |
| Year-End Price | 21.75 | 9.13 | 10.20 | 23.12 | 32.01 | 32.61 | 30.34 | 37.98 | 29.37 | 49.84 | 90.43 | 160.38 | 141.03 |
NRG ENERGY, INC. passes 4 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
NRG ENERGY, INC. trades at 35.2x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 14.7x, suggesting it is currently Expensive relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 39.5x vs a median of 8.6x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 14.0% with a gross margin of 17.2%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 6.3%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +7.5%.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a net profit margin of 2.6%. This is a modest margin.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) generated $766 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.89. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $4.01 in its most recent fiscal year.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a return on equity (ROE) of 38.3%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a 5-year average gross margin of 17.2%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 19 years of financial data for NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has a book value per share of $8.46, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management is reaffirming 2026 financial guidance and emphasizing strong operational execution, with the LS Power integration progressing ahead of plan and generation assets performing as expected. The company is experiencing a sustained shift in power demand outlooks across its markets, with preliminary long-term load forecasts showing a pipeline of large load requests reaching over 367 GW by 2033, more than four times today's record peak in under a decade, driven significantly by AI infrastructure investment and data center expansion. NRG is targeting at least 1 GW-plus of signed long-term data center power contracts under its Bring Your Own Power approach and expects its Texas residential virtual power plant to reach 1 GW of capacity, leveraging its unique combination of retail electricity and smart home technology at scale. The company remains committed to disciplined capital allocation, with plans to execute approximately $1 billion toward debt repayment in 2026 as part of its post-acquisition deleveraging strategy targeting 3x net leverage, while maintaining its robust return of capital program of at least $1.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Management continues to target at least 14% annual growth in adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow before growth per share through 2030, with the long-term outlook holding energy and capacity prices flat and not including upside from rising power prices, new data center deals, or conversion opportunities with the acquired LS portfolio.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, NRG ENERGY, INC. (NRG) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted EBITDA: $5.575 billion (FY2026); Adjusted EPS: $8.90 per share (FY2026); Free cash flow before growth: $3.05 billion (FY2026); Adjusted EPS: greater than $14 per share (FY2030); Free cash flow before growth per share: greater than $22 per share (FY2030), plus 2 additional metrics.
Long-term adjusted EPS and FCFBG per share CAGR (2026-2030): “we are reaffirming our long-term adjusted EPS and FCFBG per share CAGR of 14%+, while also rolling forward the long-term outlook from 2029 to 2030”
Debt repayment (FY2026): “we expect to execute approximately $1 billion toward debt repayments throughout the year”