A Business at a Glance
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XPO, Inc.
XPO
$25.5B
Mkt Cap
$213.01
-0.54%
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a current P/E ratio of 80.7, compared to its historical median P/E of 39.1. The stock is currently considered Expensive based on its historical valuation range.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.6%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a market capitalization of $24.9B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) does not currently pay a regular dividend. However, the company returns capital to shareholders through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 0.62%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, XPO, Inc. (XPO) appears expensive. The current P/E of 80.7 is 106% above its historical median of 39.1. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 20.3%.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) operates in the Transportation Services industry, within the Industrials sector.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) reported annual revenue of $8.2 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
XPO, Inc. is a leading North American and European freight transportation provider serving approximately 55,000 customers through two reportable segments: North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), which represents the largest component of the business with approximately 9% U.S. market share, and European Transportation. The North American LTL segment operates one of the largest networks in the region, moving approximately 16 billion pounds of freight annually with day-definite domestic services to approximately 99% of U.S. zip codes plus cross-border services to Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. XPO's business model is built on proprietary cloud-based technology that optimizes pricing, linehaul, pickup-and-delivery, and dock operations, with recent investments in artificial intelligence and intelligent automation to enhance profitability and decision-making across the network. The company generates high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow through its LTL operations, which historically have demonstrated strong unit economics and operating leverage. XPO has built more than 30% excess door capacity into its network and operates self-reliant competitive advantages including an internal trailer manufacturing facility and commercial truck driver schools, positioning it to capture profitable market share gains when freight demand recovers. The European segment operates as a pan-European platform with leading positions in full truckload brokerage, LTL, warehousing, dedicated truckload, managed transportation, and last-mile delivery services across France, Iberia, and the U.K., though the company has authorization to divest this business.
【Pricing momentum and productivity gains】 Management expects yield and revenue per shipment to accelerate on a year-over-year basis through 2026, driven by internal pricing initiatives and premium service offerings, with the company positioned to outperform industry yield growth by multiple points annually. The company anticipates meaningful free cash flow generation beginning in 2026 and accelerating in subsequent years, enabling increased share repurchases and debt reduction while maintaining capital discipline. Productivity improvements from AI-enabled technology deployments are expected to continue compounding, with management targeting low single-digit improvements for 2026 and potential upside to mid-single-digit gains as initiatives scale across the network. Customer sentiment has improved materially, with survey results showing double the number of respondents expecting acceleration in the back half of 2026 relative to the first half, supporting management's confidence in margin expansion even without a macro recovery. The company expects operating ratio improvement of 100–150 basis points for full-year 2026, with potential for outperformance if volume trends improve, and anticipates incremental margins comfortably above 40% as yield growth flows through to profitability.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted effective tax rate | 23%–24% | FY2026 |
| Gross capital expenditures | $500–$600 million | FY2026 |
| Interest expense | $205–$215 million | FY2026 |
| Diluted share count | approximately 118 million shares | FY2026 |
| Revenue per shipment | mid-single digit range | FY2026 |
| Productivity improvement | low single-digit range | FY2026 |
| Adjusted effective tax rate | 24%–25% | FY2026 |
Adjusted effective tax rate (FY2026): “We now expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be in the range of 23%-24%”
Gross capital expenditures (FY2026): “For 2026, we expect total company gross capital expenditures of $500-$600 million”
Interest expense (FY2026): “For 2026, we expect total company gross capital expenditures of $500-$600 million, interest expense of $205-$215 million”
Diluted share count (FY2026): “and a diluted share count of approximately 118 million shares”
“For revenue per shipment specifically, we expect revenue per shipment to be up somewhere in that mid-single digit range”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.3B | 8.2B | 8.1B | 7.7B | 7.7B | 7.2B |
| Net Income | 348M | 316M | 387M | 189M | 666M | 336M |
| EPS | $2.97 | $2.64 | $3.23 | $1.60 | $5.76 | $2.93 |
| Free Cash Flow | 458M | 329M | 19M | -839M | 303M | 387M |
| ROIC | 10.5% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% |
| Gross Margin | - | - | - | - | 35.9% | 36.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.71 | 1.78 | 2.11 | 2.68 | 2.50 | 3.14 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.00 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Operating Income | 679M | 656M | 660M | 438M | 377M | 312M |
| Operating Margin | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| ROE | 18.8% | 18.3% | 27.0% | 16.6% | 62.0% | 16.9% |
| Shares Outstanding | 117M | 120M | 120M | 118M | 116M | 115M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2.4B | 7.6B | 14.6B | 15.4B | 17.3B | 10.7B | 6.2B | 7.2B | 7.7B | 7.7B | 8.1B | 8.2B | 8.3B |
| Gross Margin | 88.4% | 69.0% | 46.0% | 47.1% | 47.8% | 22.3% | N/A | 36.1% | 35.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 63M | 1.1B | 1.7B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.1B | 746M | 756M | 678M | 3.2B | 3.4B | 3.4B | 3.5B |
| EBIT | -41M | -29M | 464M | 582M | 704M | 561M | 97M | 312M | 377M | 438M | 660M | 656M | 679M |
| Op. Margin | -1.7% | -0.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| Net Income | -107M | -246M | 63M | 312M | 390M | 379M | 79M | 336M | 666M | 189M | 387M | 316M | 348M |
| Net Margin | -4.6% | -3.2% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| Non-Recurring | 11M | 69M | 28M | 47M | 29M | 150M | 31M | 19M | 544M | 43M | 67M | 76M | 55M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | -7.5% | -0.6% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% |
| ROE | -10.2% | -11.2% | 2.3% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 62.0% | 16.6% | 27.0% | 18.3% | 18.8% |
| ROA | -6.1% | -3.2% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | -21M | 91M | 622M | 785M | 1.1B | 629M | 388M | 656M | 824M | 694M | 808M | 986M | 1.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | -66M | -158M | 139M | 281M | 551M | 250M | 139M | 387M | 303M | -839M | 19M | 329M | 458M |
| Owner Earnings | -65M | -140M | 101M | 218M | 507M | 203M | 30M | 298M | 411M | 240M | 289M | 442M | 191M |
| CapEx | 45M | 249M | 483M | 504M | 551M | 379M | 249M | 269M | 521M | 1.5B | 789M | 657M | 569M |
| Maint. CapEx | 36M | 203M | 466M | 488M | 546M | 370M | 321M | 327M | 336M | 376M | 432M | 467M | 761M |
| Growth CapEx | 8.8M | 46M | 17M | 16M | 5.0M | 9.0M | 0 | 0 | 185M | 1.2B | 357M | 190M | 0 |
| D&A | 36M | 203M | 466M | 488M | 546M | 370M | 321M | 327M | 336M | 376M | 432M | 467M | 761M |
| CapEx/OCF | N/A | 274.2% | 77.3% | 64.2% | 50.0% | 76.0% | 78.1% | 54.9% | 63.2% | 220.9% | 97.6% | 66.6% | 55.4% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 2.9M | 2.8M | 5.0M | 7.0M | 8.0M | 8.0M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 536M | 1.3B | 114M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125M | 155M |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7.1% | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 7.5M | 28M | 55M | 79M | 49M | 56M | 37M | 31M | 77M | 78M | 87M | 77M | 75M |
| Debt Repayment | 0 | 1.2B | 151M | 106M | 119M | 28M | 22M | 5.0M | 0 | 27M | 4.0M | 3.0M | 3.0M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | -393M | 5.1B | 4.5B | 4.1B | 3.8B | 4.9B | 3.6B | 3.3B | 2.1B | 3.0B | 3.1B | 3.0B | 2.9B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 644M | 290M | 373M | 397M | 502M | 377M | 1.7B | 228M | 460M | 412M | 246M | 310M | 237M |
| Long-Term Debt | 580M | 5.3B | 4.7B | 4.4B | 3.9B | 5.2B | 5.2B | 3.5B | 2.5B | 3.3B | 3.3B | 3.3B | 3.2B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | 1.99 | 1.80 | 1.25 | 1.19 | 1.91 | 1.86 | 3.14 | 2.50 | 2.68 | 2.11 | 1.78 | 1.71 |
| Interest Coverage | -0.9 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 135.8 |
| Equity | 1.7B | 2.7B | 2.7B | 3.6B | 3.6B | 2.7B | 2.8B | 1.1B | 1.0B | 1.3B | 1.6B | 1.9B | 1.9B |
| Total Assets | 2.7B | 12.6B | 11.7B | 12.6B | 12.3B | 14.1B | 16.2B | 8.7B | 6.3B | 7.5B | 7.7B | 8.2B | 8.2B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.1B | 9.6B | 8.7B | 8.6B | 8.3B | 11.2B | 13.2B | 7.6B | 5.3B | 6.2B | 6.1B | 6.3B | 49M |
| Intangibles | 342M | 1.9B | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.1B | 675M | 470M | 407M | 422M | 361M | 311M | 295M |
| Retained Earnings | -219M | -465M | -393M | -43M | 377M | 786M | 868M | 43M | -4.0M | 185M | 572M | 888M | 989M |
| Working Capital | 843M | 263M | 342M | 591M | 375M | 84M | 217M | 139M | 123M | 3.0M | 85M | 75M | -16M |
| Current Assets | 1.2B | 3.0B | 3.1B | 3.6B | 3.7B | 3.3B | 5.4B | 2.7B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.6B | 1.7B |
| Current Liabilities | 381M | 2.7B | 2.7B | 3.0B | 3.3B | 3.3B | 5.2B | 2.5B | 1.5B | 1.6B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.7B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | -2.00 | -2.65 | 0.53 | 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.57 | 0.87 | 2.93 | 5.76 | 1.60 | 3.23 | 2.64 | 2.97 |
| Owner EPS | -1.20 | -1.51 | 0.85 | 1.71 | 3.74 | 1.91 | 0.33 | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.03 | 2.41 | 3.69 | 1.63 |
| Book Value | 30.82 | 29.28 | 22.71 | 28.30 | 26.40 | 25.84 | 31.38 | 9.92 | 8.75 | 10.72 | 13.36 | 15.55 | 15.82 |
| Cash Flow/Share | -0.40 | 0.98 | 5.23 | 6.16 | 8.14 | 5.92 | 4.27 | 5.72 | 7.13 | 5.88 | 6.74 | 8.24 | 9.48 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.08 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.00 |
| Shares Out. | 53.7M | 92.8M | 118.9M | 127.3M | 135.4M | 106.2M | 90.8M | 114.7M | 115.6M | 118.1M | 119.8M | 119.7M | 117.0M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | 82.1 | 37.3 | 19.5 | 22.5 | 78.8 | 15.5 | 5.8 | 56.3 | 40.9 | 53.5 | 71.8 |
| P/FCF | N/A | N/A | 12.9 | 14.3 | 4.8 | 11.8 | 26.6 | 13.5 | 12.8 | N/A | 834.0 | 51.4 | 54.4 |
| EV/EBIT | N/A | N/A | 19.3 | 26.6 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 46.4 | 26.9 | 14.7 | 30.3 | 28.5 | 30.0 | 41.0 |
| Price/Book | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 13.5 |
| Price/Sales | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| FCF Yield | -1.4% | -6.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | -7.9% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Market Cap | 4.6B | 2.5B | 5.2B | 11.6B | 7.6B | 8.5B | 6.2B | 5.2B | 3.9B | 10.6B | 15.8B | 16.9B | 24.9B |
| Avg. Price | 10.77 | 13.47 | 10.93 | 20.30 | 33.48 | 22.53 | 28.80 | 46.70 | 34.76 | 57.68 | 116.45 | 126.33 | 213.01 |
| Year-End Price | 14.59 | 9.32 | 15.05 | 31.60 | 19.38 | 27.77 | 40.75 | 45.50 | 33.59 | 90.03 | 132.26 | 141.32 | 213.01 |
XPO, Inc. passes 5 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
XPO, Inc. trades at 80.7x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 39.1x, suggesting it is currently Expensive relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 75.8x vs a median of 13.2x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 8.6% with a gross margin of 36.0%. Total shareholder yield (buybacks) is 0.6%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +0.9%.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a net profit margin of 3.9%. This is a modest margin.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) generated $329 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.64 in its most recent fiscal year.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a return on equity (ROE) of 18.3%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a 5-year average gross margin of 36.0%. This indicates decent pricing power.
The Ledger Terminal provides 16 years of financial data for XPO, Inc. (XPO), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a book value per share of $15.55, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects yield and revenue per shipment to accelerate on a year-over-year basis through 2026, driven by internal pricing initiatives and premium service offerings, with the company positioned to outperform industry yield growth by multiple points annually. The company anticipates meaningful free cash flow generation beginning in 2026 and accelerating in subsequent years, enabling increased share repurchases and debt reduction while maintaining capital discipline. Productivity improvements from AI-enabled technology deployments are expected to continue compounding, with management targeting low single-digit improvements for 2026 and potential upside to mid-single-digit gains as initiatives scale across the network. Customer sentiment has improved materially, with survey results showing double the number of respondents expecting acceleration in the back half of 2026 relative to the first half, supporting management's confidence in margin expansion even without a macro recovery. The company expects operating ratio improvement of 100–150 basis points for full-year 2026, with potential for outperformance if volume trends improve, and anticipates incremental margins comfortably above 40% as yield growth flows through to profitability.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, XPO, Inc. (XPO) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted effective tax rate: 23%–24% (FY2026); Gross capital expenditures: $500–$600 million (FY2026); Interest expense: $205–$215 million (FY2026); Diluted share count: approximately 118 million shares (FY2026); Revenue per shipment: mid-single digit range (FY2026), plus 2 additional metrics.
Productivity improvement (FY2026): “in terms of our expectation, what we currently expect for 2026 is a low single-digit improvement in productivity as well”
Adjusted effective tax rate (FY2026): “an adjusted effective tax rate of 24%-25%”