A Business at a Glance
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF
$20.3B
Mkt Cap
$125.07
-1.29%
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a current P/E ratio of 13.9, compared to its historical median P/E of 16.0. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 35.5%. This indicates strong capital allocation and a potential competitive advantage.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a market capitalization of $19.2B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 1.65%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 4.93%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) appears fair. The current P/E of 13.9 is 13% below its historical median of 16.0. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 36.0%.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) operates in the Agricultural Chemicals industry, within the Materials sector.
CF Industries is the world's largest ammonia producer, operating manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, with an extensive North American storage, transportation, and distribution network that provides global reach. The company produces anhydrous ammonia through the Haber-Bosch process and upgrades it into nitrogen fertilizer products (granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate) and industrial products (DEF, urea liquor, nitric acid, aqua ammonia), with ammonia and its derivatives serving primarily agricultural customers seeking nitrogen for crop growth, as well as industrial users in emissions control and explosives. CF Industries operates a capital-intensive, integrated production and logistics model with approximately 89% ownership of CF Industries Nitrogen (a joint venture with CHS Inc.), wholly owned facilities in Waggaman and Donaldsonville, Louisiana, and minority interests in production assets in Trinidad and Tobago and a greenfield low-carbon ammonia facility at Blue Point, Louisiana. The company's competitive moat derives from its unmatched distribution and logistics network in North America, advantaged production capabilities, and operational excellence, enabling it to serve cooperatives, retailers, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial customers across North America and globally. Management is executing a decarbonization strategy to produce low-carbon ammonia through carbon capture and sequestration, positioning the company to serve both traditional agricultural markets seeking to reduce carbon footprint and emerging applications in power generation and marine shipping.
【Global nitrogen tightening ahead】 Management expects the global nitrogen market to remain tight through 2026 and into 2027, driven by geopolitical disruptions (Iran and Egypt production losses), strong demand from India and Brazil, and structural supply constraints as new capacity under construction falls short of traditional demand growth. The company anticipates India's urea imports could reach 10–12 million metric tons in 2026, approximately 10–30% higher than 2025, while expecting unmet demand in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia to result in lower fertilizer consumption and higher commodity prices. CF Industries expects to generate substantial free cash flow from its core business and strategic initiatives, with returns from CCS projects and the Verdigris abatement project expected to add $150–200 million to annual free cash flow by the end of the decade, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation to fund growth investments and shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Gross ammonia production | approximately 9.5 million tons | FY2026 |
| Capital expenditures | approximately $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis; CF Industries' portion approximately $950 million | FY2026 |
| Blue Point ammonia production commencement | late 2029 | FY2029 |
| Blue Point project total cost | approximately $3.7 billion | Project completion (2029) |
| Yazoo City CCS project cost | approximately $100 million | Project completion (2028) |
| Yazoo City production resumption | Q4 2026 at the earliest | FY2026 |
| India urea import requirements | 10 million–12 million metric tons | FY2026 |
| Free cash flow from CCS and abatement projects | $150 million–$200 million annually | By end of decade |
Gross ammonia production (FY2026): “As a result, we expect our network to produce approximately 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia in 2026.”
Capital expenditures (FY2026): “Looking ahead, we expect capital expenditures in 2026 to total approximately $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis. CF Industries' portion of this is approximately $950 million, which includes $550 million for sustaining CapEx for our existing network, plus approximately $400 million relating to both the Blue Point joint venture and the common infrastructure we are building.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.4B | 7.1B | 5.9B | 6.6B | 11.2B | 6.5B |
| Net Income | 1.8B | 1.5B | 1.2B | 1.5B | 3.3B | 917M |
| EPS | $11.19 | $8.97 | $6.74 | $7.87 | $16.38 | $4.24 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.6B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 2.3B | 3.4B | 2.4B |
| ROIC | 32.0% | 27.2% | 22.1% | 28.9% | 75.9% | 23.5% |
| Gross Margin | 39.1% | 38.5% | 34.6% | 38.4% | 52.4% | 36.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.60 | 0.91 | 0.65 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 1.16 |
| Dividends/Share | $2.07 | $2.00 | $2.00 | $1.60 | $1.50 | $1.20 |
| Operating Income | 2.7B | 2.3B | 1.7B | 2.2B | 5.4B | 1.7B |
| Operating Margin | 36.6% | 32.5% | 29.4% | 33.6% | 48.2% | 26.4% |
| ROE | 32.9% | 29.6% | 22.8% | 28.3% | 81.0% | 29.9% |
| Shares Outstanding | 154M | 162M | 181M | 194M | 204M | 216M |
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. passes 6 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. trades at 13.9x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 16.0x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 11.3x vs a median of 7.0x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 35.5% with a gross margin of 40.1%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 6.6%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +17.6%.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) reported annual revenue of $7.1 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a net profit margin of 20.5%. This is a strong margin indicating high profitability.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) generated $1.8 billion in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91. This indicates moderate leverage.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $8.97 in its most recent fiscal year.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a return on equity (ROE) of 29.6%. This indicates the company generates strong returns for shareholders.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a 5-year average gross margin of 40.1%. This indicates decent pricing power.
The Ledger Terminal provides 19 years of financial data for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a book value per share of $29.83, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects the global nitrogen market to remain tight through 2026 and into 2027, driven by geopolitical disruptions (Iran and Egypt production losses), strong demand from India and Brazil, and structural supply constraints as new capacity under construction falls short of traditional demand growth. The company anticipates India's urea imports could reach 10–12 million metric tons in 2026, approximately 10–30% higher than 2025, while expecting unmet demand in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia to result in lower fertilizer consumption and higher commodity prices. CF Industries expects to generate substantial free cash flow from its core business and strategic initiatives, with returns from CCS projects and the Verdigris abatement project expected to add $150–200 million to annual free cash flow by the end of the decade, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation to fund growth investments and shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has provided the following forward guidance: Gross ammonia production: approximately 9.5 million tons (FY2026); Capital expenditures: approximately $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis; CF Industries' portion approximately $950 million (FY2026); Blue Point ammonia production commencement: late 2029 (FY2029); Blue Point project total cost: approximately $3.7 billion (Project completion (2029)); Yazoo City CCS project cost: approximately $100 million (Project completion (2028)), plus 3 additional metrics.
Blue Point ammonia production commencement (FY2029): “Construction of the ammonia production facility is expected to begin in 2026, with low-carbon ammonia production expected to begin in 2029.”
Blue Point project total cost (Project completion (2029)): “We estimate that the cost of the low-carbon ATR ammonia production facility with CCS technologies will be approximately $3.7 billion.”
Yazoo City CCS project cost (Project completion (2028)): “Construction of the dehydration and compression unit at our Yazoo City complex is expected to cost approximately $100 million.”
Yazoo City production resumption (FY2026): “We do not expect the Yazoo City complex to resume production until the Q4 of 2026 at the earliest, given the long lead times required to fabricate and deliver certain equipment.”
India urea import requirements (FY2026): “Given urea volumes not delivered under a previous tender and lower than expected domestic urea production, we believe India's urea imports requirements will be substantial in 2026, potentially rising to 10 million-12 million metric tons.”
Free cash flow from CCS and abatement projects (By end of decade): “By the end of the decade, we expect the returns generated by our CCS projects, along with the Verdigris abatement project, will add a consistent incremental $150 million to $200 million to our free cash flow.”