A Business at a Glance
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MOSAIC CO
MOS
$7.1B
Mkt Cap
$22.30
+0.09%
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a current P/E ratio of 13.1, compared to its historical median P/E of 12.6. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.5%. This indicates solid capital allocation.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a market capitalization of $7.1B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
Yes, MOSAIC CO (MOS) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 3.95%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, MOSAIC CO (MOS) appears fair. The current P/E of 13.1 is 4% above its historical median of 12.6. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 15.6%.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) operates in the Agricultural Chemicals industry, within the Materials sector.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) reported annual revenue of $12.1 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
The Mosaic Company is the world's leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, serving approximately 40 countries with a diversified product portfolio spanning phosphate-based crop nutrients, potash fertilizers, and animal feed ingredients. The company operates through three reportable segments: Phosphate, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes, with integrated operations spanning mining, processing, blending, and distribution. Mosaic accounts for approximately 10% of global annual phosphate production and 12% of global annual potash production, with dominant regional positions including approximately 72% of North American concentrated phosphate production and 34% of North American potash production. The business model is capital-intensive and asset-based, with phosphate operations centered in Florida, Louisiana, and Brazil, potash mining in Saskatchewan and New Mexico, and a significant integrated presence in Brazil through Mosaic Fertilizantes, which accounts for approximately 73% of Brazilian concentrated phosphate production. The company's competitive moat derives from its scale, geographic diversification across the top four nutrient-consuming countries (China, India, U.S., and Brazil), extensive market access, integrated supply chain from mining through distribution, and proprietary products such as MicroEssentials®. Unit economics are characterized by commodity-linked pricing with stripping margins (the spread between fertilizer prices and raw material costs) as a key profitability driver, while the distribution model combines direct sales to manufacturers and distributors with a significant blending and distribution network in Brazil.
【Phosphate production recovery underway】 Management expects phosphate production to reach at least 7 million tons in 2026, with improved operating rates across facilities following completion of major turnarounds and asset reliability work. Potash production is anticipated to approach 9 million tons in 2026 at record levels at Esterhazy, supported by strong global demand expected to approach record shipments. The company expects cash flow to improve progressively through 2026 as phosphate prices rebound, working capital unwinds from elevated inventory levels, and raw material costs stabilize after elevated sulfur and ammonia pricing in early 2026. Capital expenditures are expected to trend downward over the medium term, reaching approximately $1 billion by 2030, while the company pursues strategic alternatives for selected Brazilian assets and monetization of Florida land holdings to generate value and reduce capital requirements.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Phosphate production | at least 7 million tons | FY2026 |
| Potash production | around 9 million tons | FY2026 |
| Capital expenditures | around $1.5 billion | FY2026 |
| Capital expenditures | approximately $1 billion | FY2030 |
| Mosaic Biosciences revenues | double | FY2026 |
| Workforce reduction annualized expense savings | $50 million | FY2026 |
| New product launches | 8 to 10 | FY2026 |
Phosphate production (FY2026): “We expect to produce at least 7 million tons of phosphate in 2026.”
Potash production (FY2026): “we expect to produce around 9 million tons of potash this year, a level similar to 2025, even after we complete the Carlsbad transaction.”
Capital expenditures (FY2026): “We expect CapEx in 2026 to come in around $1.5 billion, higher than 2025, due to mine, gypstack, and clay settling area expansions in Florida.”
Capital expenditures (FY2030): “we continue to expect capital expenditures to trend down, reaching approximately $1 billion by 2030, with ARO and environmental reserve cash spending also declining to about $200 million by 2030.”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.4B | 12.1B | 11.1B | 13.7B | 19.1B | 12.4B |
| Net Income | 45M | 541M | 175M | 1.2B | 3.6B | 1.6B |
| EPS | $0.14 | $1.70 | $0.55 | $3.50 | $10.06 | $4.27 |
| Free Cash Flow | -489M | -535M | 47M | 1.0B | 2.7B | 898M |
| ROIC | 0.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 7.8% | 25.3% | 13.7% |
| Gross Margin | 13.3% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 16.1% | 30.1% | 25.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.88 | $0.88 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.60 | $0.27 |
| Operating Income | 110M | 822M | 622M | 1.3B | 4.8B | 2.5B |
| Operating Margin | 0.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| ROE | 0.4% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 9.6% | 31.6% | 16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding | 318M | 318M | 318M | 333M | 356M | 382M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 9.1B | 8.9B | N/A | -138M | 9.6B | 8.9B | 8.7B | 12.4B | 19.1B | 13.7B | 11.1B | 12.1B | 12.4B |
| Gross Margin | 21.3% | 19.3% | N/A | -610.3% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 25.9% | 30.1% | 16.1% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 13.3% |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 382M | 361M | 304M | 301M | 341M | 354M | 372M | 431M | 498M | 500M | 497M | 534M | 547M |
| EBIT | 1.3B | 1.3B | 319M | 559M | 928M | -1.1B | 413M | 2.5B | 4.8B | 1.3B | 622M | 822M | 110M |
| Op. Margin | 14.5% | 14.4% | N/A | -404.8% | 9.7% | -12.3% | 4.8% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 0.9% |
| Net Income | 1.0B | 1.0B | 298M | -107M | 470M | -1.1B | 666M | 1.6B | 3.6B | 1.2B | 175M | 541M | 45M |
| Net Margin | 11.4% | 11.2% | N/A | 77.6% | 4.9% | -12.0% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 4.5% | 0.4% |
| Non-Recurring | 142M | 7.9M | 17M | 26M | -63M | 2.0B | 0 | 158M | 38M | 57M | 0 | 100M | 100M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 11.4% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.3% | -7.5% | 3.1% | 13.7% | 25.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| ROE | 9.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | -1.1% | 4.7% | -10.9% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 31.6% | 9.6% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 0.4% |
| ROA | 5.6% | 5.8% | 1.7% | -0.6% | 2.4% | -5.4% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 15.8% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 2.1B | 1.8B | 1.3B | 936M | 1.4B | 1.1B | 1.6B | 2.2B | 3.9B | 2.4B | 1.3B | 825M | 886M |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.2B | 807M | 417M | 115M | 455M | -177M | 412M | 898M | 2.7B | 1.0B | 47M | -535M | -489M |
| Owner Earnings | 1.3B | 1.0B | 519M | 242M | 498M | 185M | 717M | 1.3B | 3.0B | 1.4B | 242M | -256M | -269M |
| CapEx | 929M | 1.0B | 843M | 820M | 955M | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.4B |
| Maint. CapEx | 751M | 740M | 711M | 666M | 884M | 883M | 848M | 813M | 934M | 961M | 1.0B | 1.0B | 1.1B |
| Growth CapEx | 178M | 260M | 132M | 155M | 71M | 389M | 323M | 476M | 313M | 442M | 226M | 309M | 252M |
| D&A | 751M | 740M | 711M | 666M | 884M | 883M | 848M | 813M | 934M | 961M | 1.0B | 1.0B | 1.1B |
| CapEx/OCF | 43.8% | 55.3% | 66.9% | 87.7% | 67.7% | 116.1% | 74.0% | 58.9% | 31.7% | 58.3% | 96.4% | 164.8% | 155.2% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 383M | 385M | 385M | 211M | 39M | 67M | 76M | 104M | 198M | 352M | 271M | 280M | 280M |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| Share Buybacks | 2.8B | 710M | 75M | 0 | 0 | 150M | 0 | 411M | 1.7B | 756M | 235M | 0 | 0 |
| Buyback Yield | 19.6% | 8.3% | 0.9% | N/A | N/A | 2.1% | N/A | 3.0% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | N/A | 0.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 54M | 41M | 31M | 28M | 28M | 28M | 18M | 30M | 28M | 33M | 32M | 31M | 32M |
| Debt Repayment | 2.1M | 60M | 769M | 102M | 803M | 48M | 67M | 608M | 610M | 995M | 67M | 73M | 73M |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | -917M | 1.3B | 3.1B | 3.1B | 3.7B | 4.3B | 3.5B | 2.9B | 2.4B | 3.0B | 3.5B | 4.3B | 4.5B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 2.4B | 1.3B | 673M | 2.2B | 848M | 519M | 574M | 770M | 735M | 349M | 273M | 277M | 1.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | 3.8B | 3.8B | 3.8B | 4.9B | 4.5B | 4.5B | 4.1B | 3.4B | 2.4B | 3.2B | 3.3B | 4.3B | 4.3B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| Interest Coverage | 12.2 | 9.6 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | -5.1 | 1.9 | 12.7 | 28.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Equity | 10.7B | 9.5B | 9.6B | 9.6B | 10.4B | 9.2B | 9.6B | 10.6B | 12.1B | 12.3B | 11.5B | 12.1B | 11.8B |
| Total Assets | 18.3B | 17.4B | 16.8B | 18.6B | 20.1B | 19.3B | 19.8B | 22.0B | 23.4B | 23.0B | 22.9B | 24.5B | 24.6B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.6B | 7.8B | 1.7B | 9.0B | 9.5B | 9.9B | 10.0B | 11.3B | 11.2B | 10.6B | 11.3B | 12.2B | -66M |
| Intangibles | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Retained Earnings | 11.2B | 11.0B | 10.9B | 10.6B | 11.1B | 9.9B | 10.5B | 12.0B | 14.2B | 14.2B | 13.9B | 14.2B | 13.9B |
| Working Capital | 3.6B | 2.1B | 1.6B | 2.6B | 1.8B | 1.1B | 375M | 538M | 1.0B | 871M | 327M | 1.3B | 1.1B |
| Current Assets | 5.2B | 4.1B | 3.1B | 4.6B | 4.2B | 3.7B | 3.5B | 5.3B | 6.6B | 4.7B | 4.5B | 5.2B | 5.3B |
| Current Liabilities | 1.6B | 2.0B | 1.5B | 2.0B | 2.5B | 2.6B | 3.1B | 4.8B | 5.5B | 3.9B | 4.2B | 4.0B | 4.3B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 2.68 | 2.78 | 0.85 | -0.31 | 1.22 | -2.78 | 1.75 | 4.27 | 10.06 | 3.50 | 0.55 | 1.70 | 0.14 |
| Owner EPS | 3.43 | 2.85 | 1.48 | 0.70 | 1.29 | 0.48 | 1.88 | 3.52 | 8.35 | 4.25 | 0.76 | -0.80 | -0.85 |
| Book Value | 27.89 | 26.49 | 27.36 | 27.81 | 26.99 | 23.92 | 25.17 | 27.77 | 33.85 | 36.93 | 36.11 | 38.00 | 37.14 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 5.53 | 5.02 | 3.60 | 2.71 | 3.66 | 2.85 | 4.16 | 5.73 | 11.05 | 7.23 | 4.09 | 2.59 | 3.68 |
| Dividends/Share | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 0.61 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Shares Out. | 383.8M | 359.9M | 350.4M | 345.8M | 385.2M | 384.0M | 380.6M | 381.9M | 356.1M | 332.8M | 318.0M | 318.1M | 317.8M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 13.7 | 8.5 | 29.1 | N/A | 20.7 | N/A | 11.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 9.6 | 41.7 | 14.2 | 155.5 |
| P/FCF | 11.8 | 10.6 | 20.8 | 66.8 | 21.3 | N/A | 17.8 | 15.3 | 5.2 | 11.2 | 153.9 | N/A | N/A |
| EV/EBIT | 10.0 | 7.7 | 37.0 | 19.3 | 14.4 | N/A | 26.2 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 10.6 | 17.3 | 14.5 | 105.2 |
| Price/Book | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Price/Sales | 1.6 | 1.4 | N/A | N/A | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| FCF Yield | 8.5% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 4.7% | -2.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 19.1% | 9.0% | 0.6% | -7.0% | -6.9% |
| Market Cap | 14.1B | 8.5B | 8.7B | 7.7B | 9.7B | 7.2B | 7.3B | 13.7B | 14.1B | 11.2B | 7.3B | 7.7B | 7.1B |
| Avg. Price | 37.03 | 33.71 | 22.23 | 21.59 | 25.42 | 21.15 | 14.49 | 29.76 | 47.87 | 37.02 | 27.33 | 29.27 | 22.30 |
| Year-End Price | 36.61 | 23.69 | 24.74 | 22.29 | 25.22 | 18.73 | 19.30 | 35.89 | 39.51 | 33.70 | 22.95 | 24.11 | 22.30 |
MOSAIC CO passes 4 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
MOSAIC CO trades at 13.1x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 12.6x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 10.5% with a gross margin of 20.3%. Total shareholder yield (dividends) is 4.0%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +15.5%.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a net profit margin of 4.5%. This is a modest margin.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) generated $-535 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Negative free cash flow may indicate heavy investment or operational challenges.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44. This indicates a conservatively financed balance sheet.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 in its most recent fiscal year.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a return on equity (ROE) of 4.6%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a 5-year average gross margin of 20.3%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 17 years of financial data for MOSAIC CO (MOS), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
MOSAIC CO (MOS) has a book value per share of $38.00, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects phosphate production to reach at least 7 million tons in 2026, with improved operating rates across facilities following completion of major turnarounds and asset reliability work. Potash production is anticipated to approach 9 million tons in 2026 at record levels at Esterhazy, supported by strong global demand expected to approach record shipments. The company expects cash flow to improve progressively through 2026 as phosphate prices rebound, working capital unwinds from elevated inventory levels, and raw material costs stabilize after elevated sulfur and ammonia pricing in early 2026. Capital expenditures are expected to trend downward over the medium term, reaching approximately $1 billion by 2030, while the company pursues strategic alternatives for selected Brazilian assets and monetization of Florida land holdings to generate value and reduce capital requirements.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, MOSAIC CO (MOS) has provided the following forward guidance: Phosphate production: at least 7 million tons (FY2026); Potash production: around 9 million tons (FY2026); Capital expenditures: around $1.5 billion (FY2026); Capital expenditures: approximately $1 billion (FY2030); Mosaic Biosciences revenues: double (FY2026), plus 2 additional metrics.
Mosaic Biosciences revenues (FY2026): “We expect Mosaic Biosciences revenues to double again in 2026.”
Workforce reduction annualized expense savings (FY2026): “In April, we initiated a workforce reduction that is expected to generate annualized expense savings of $50 million, of which $15 million will be realized this year.”
New product launches (FY2026): “We expect to launch eight to 10 new products in 2026, including two new products that were launched during the first quarter.”