A Business at a Glance
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GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO
GPK
$3.3B
Mkt Cap
$11.02
+0.27%
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a current P/E ratio of 7.4, compared to its historical median P/E of 13.5. The stock is currently considered Cheap based on its historical valuation range.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.5%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a market capitalization of $3.3B. It is classified as a mid-cap stock.
Yes, GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 3.99%. The company also returns capital through share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 4.60%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) appears cheap. The current P/E of 7.4 is 45% below its historical median of 13.5. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is 24.6%.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) operates in the Paperboard Containers & Boxes industry, within the Materials sector.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a leading global producer of sustainable consumer packaging solutions made from renewable or recycled materials, including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, cups, and bowls. The company operates over 100 manufacturing locations across 20 countries, serving food and beverage, foodservice, household products, beauty, and healthcare markets through a mix of multinational consumer products companies and retailers. The business model centers on close customer collaboration to design customized packaging solutions, with the company manufacturing most of its paperboard in the Americas while sourcing the majority of international paperboard from third parties. Graphic Packaging's competitive advantages include comprehensive design and manufacturing capabilities, an integrated beverage packaging model, and a network of well-capitalized paperboard manufacturing facilities that provide cost and quality advantages. The company generates revenue through a combination of contractual and non-contractual business segments, with unit economics characterized by capital intensity in paperboard production offset by asset-light converting operations, and pricing mechanisms that include both fixed contracts and market-based pricing subject to commodity cost pass-through provisions.
【Deleveraging and cash flow inflection】 Management is prioritizing debt reduction as the highest near-term capital allocation priority, targeting approximately $500 million of debt paydown in 2026 and an investment-grade credit rating by 2030. The company expects significant free cash flow generation beginning in 2026 following the completion of major capital investments, with the Waco recycled paperboard facility expected to contribute approximately $80 million of EBITDA in 2026 and an additional $80 million in 2027 as it ramps to full production. Management is focused on reducing operational complexity through inventory optimization, cost structure right-sizing, and disciplined capital allocation, while continuing to invest in innovation and customer partnerships to capture market share in the shift from single-use plastics and foam packaging to sustainable alternatives. The company expects to maintain pricing discipline while pursuing targeted cost reductions and operational efficiencies to offset inflationary pressures, with volume recovery dependent on normalization of consumer purchasing patterns and macroeconomic conditions.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $8.4 billion–$8.6 billion | FY2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.05 billion–$1.25 billion | FY2026 |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | $700 million–$800 million | FY2026 |
| Capital Expenditures | approximately $450 million | FY2026 |
| Debt Paydown | approximately $500 million | FY2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.75–$1.15 | FY2026 |
| Effective Tax Rate | approximately 25% | FY2026 |
Net Sales (FY2026): “We expect net sales in the range of $8.4 billion-$8.6 billion, which assumes volumes in the range of down 1% to up 1%”
Adjusted EBITDA (FY2026): “we remain confident in our ability to deliver 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.05 billion-$1.25 billion, in line with our prior guidance”
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FY2026): “Our 2026 adjusted free cash flow outlook remains unchanged in the range of $700 million-$800 million, a significant step-up from 2025”
Capital Expenditures (FY2026): “Capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be approximately $450 million”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: 10-K, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.7B | 8.6B | 8.8B | 9.4B | 9.4B | 7.2B |
| Net Income | 274M | 444M | 658M | 723M | 522M | 204M |
| EPS | $0.93 | $1.48 | $2.16 | $2.34 | $1.69 | $0.68 |
| Free Cash Flow | 0 | 841M | 806M | 1.1B | 1.1B | 582M |
| ROIC | 5.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 4.8% |
| Gross Margin | - | 18.6% | 22.3% | 22.5% | 19.4% | 15.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.77 | 1.76 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 2.56 | 3.20 |
| Dividends/Share | $0.44 | $0.43 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.30 | $0.31 |
| Operating Income | 602M | 804M | 1.1B | 1.2B | 906M | 407M |
| Operating Margin | 7.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 5.7% |
| ROE | 8.4% | 14.0% | 22.7% | 29.3% | 25.8% | 12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding | 296M | 300M | 305M | 309M | 309M | 300M |
| Metric | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 4.2B | 4.2B | 4.3B | 4.4B | 6.0B | 6.2B | 6.6B | 7.2B | 9.4B | 9.4B | 8.8B | 8.6B | 8.7B |
| Gross Margin | 18.6% | 19.0% | 18.4% | 16.3% | 15.8% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 15.0% | 19.4% | 22.5% | 22.3% | 18.6% | N/A |
| R&D | 15M | 14M | 15M | 14M | 8.7M | 9.0M | 10M | 10M | 14M | 16M | 17M | 19M | 19M |
| SG&A | 366M | 348M | 353M | 348M | 472M | 512M | 513M | 528M | 774M | 805M | 774M | 704M | 710M |
| EBIT | 228M | 427M | 407M | 328M | 458M | 534M | 524M | 407M | 906M | 1.2B | 1.1B | 804M | 602M |
| Op. Margin | 5.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Net Income | 90M | 230M | 228M | 300M | 221M | 207M | 167M | 204M | 522M | 723M | 658M | 444M | 274M |
| Net Margin | 2.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Non-Recurring | 7.0M | 700K | 1.0M | 7.4M | 77M | 15M | 51M | 38M | 29M | 89M | 149M | 0 | 0 |
| Returns on Capital | |||||||||||||
| ROIC | 5.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| ROE | 8.9% | 20.9% | 21.1% | 25.6% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 25.8% | 29.3% | 22.7% | 14.0% | 8.4% |
| ROA | 2.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 527M | 589M | 74M | -193M | -374M | 666M | 825M | 609M | 1.1B | 1.1B | 840M | 841M | 902M |
| Free Cash Flow | 325M | 360M | -205M | -433M | -753M | 644M | 795M | 582M | 1.1B | 1.1B | 806M | 841M | 0 |
| Owner Earnings | 242M | 287M | -237M | -533M | -818M | 197M | 315M | 105M | 503M | 481M | 221M | 303M | 348M |
| CapEx | 201M | 229M | 279M | 241M | 379M | 22M | 30M | 27M | 27M | 23M | 34M | 0 | 0 |
| Maint. CapEx | 270M | 281M | 299M | 330M | 431M | 447M | 476M | 489M | 553M | 619M | 557M | 536M | 544M |
| Growth CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 |
| D&A | 270M | 281M | 299M | 330M | 431M | 447M | 476M | 489M | 553M | 619M | 557M | 536M | 544M |
| CapEx/OCF | 38.2% | 38.8% | 43.4% | N/A | N/A | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | N/A | N/A | 0.0% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||||||||||
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 49M | 64M | 93M | 111M | 113M | 103M | 92M | 92M | 123M | 122M | 128M | 130M |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| Share Buybacks | 0 | 63M | 165M | 62M | 119M | 129M | 316M | 0 | 28M | 54M | 200M | 150M | 150M |
| Buyback Yield | N/A | 1.8% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 7.3% | N/A | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 15M | 22M | 11M | 10M | 14M | 22M | 34M | 15M | 34M | 44M | 62M | 2.0M | 10M |
| Debt Repayment | 215M | 25M | 25M | 25M | 152M | 0 | 0 | 1.6B | 250M | 0 | 700M | 0 | 0 |
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||||||
| Net Debt | 1.8B | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.2B | 2.9B | 2.9B | 3.7B | 5.9B | 5.3B | 5.5B | 5.3B | 5.6B | 5.6B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 82M | 55M | 59M | 67M | 71M | 153M | 179M | 172M | 150M | 162M | 157M | 261M | 189M |
| Long-Term Debt | 1.9B | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.2B | 2.9B | 2.8B | 3.1B | 5.5B | 5.2B | 4.6B | 5.1B | 5.0B | 5.2B |
| Debt/Equity | 1.97 | 1.74 | 2.04 | 1.76 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 2.71 | 3.20 | 2.56 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 1.76 | 1.77 |
| Interest Coverage | 2.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 28.7 |
| Equity | 1.0B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.4B | 1.9B | 2.1B | 2.8B | 3.0B | 3.3B | 3.2B |
| Total Assets | 4.1B | 4.3B | 4.6B | 4.9B | 7.1B | 7.3B | 7.8B | 10.5B | 10.3B | 11.2B | 11.1B | 11.8B | 11.7B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.1B | 3.2B | 3.5B | 3.6B | 5.0B | 5.2B | 6.0B | 8.6B | 8.2B | 8.4B | 8.1B | 8.4B | 6.0M |
| Intangibles | 386M | 387M | 445M | 437M | 524M | 477M | 437M | 868M | 717M | 820M | 667M | 670M | 644M |
| Retained Earnings | -453M | -327M | -268M | -56M | 10M | 56M | -48M | 66M | 469M | 1.0B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.5B |
| Working Capital | 372M | 335M | 335M | 319M | 592M | 607M | 164M | 453M | 773M | 256M | 881M | 679M | 857M |
| Current Assets | 1.0B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 2.5B | 2.7B | 2.8B | 2.8B | 2.9B | 3.0B |
| Current Liabilities | 677M | 732M | 780M | 851M | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 1.9B | 2.6B | 1.9B | 2.2B | 2.1B |
| Per Share Data | |||||||||||||
| EPS | 0.27 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.96 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 1.69 | 2.34 | 2.16 | 1.48 | 0.93 |
| Owner EPS | 0.73 | 0.87 | -0.74 | -1.70 | -2.63 | 0.67 | 1.13 | 0.35 | 1.63 | 1.56 | 0.73 | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Book Value | 3.05 | 3.35 | 3.29 | 4.13 | 5.07 | 5.31 | 5.12 | 6.30 | 6.96 | 9.00 | 9.89 | 11.12 | 10.97 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 1.59 | 1.79 | 0.23 | -0.62 | -1.20 | 2.25 | 2.96 | 2.03 | 3.53 | 3.70 | 2.76 | 2.80 | 2.76 |
| Dividends/Share | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| Shares Out. | 332.2M | 328.7M | 321.1M | 312.7M | 311.4M | 295.7M | 278.3M | 300.0M | 308.9M | 309.0M | 304.6M | 300.0M | 295.9M |
| Valuation | |||||||||||||
| P/E Ratio | 42.3 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 21.5 | 25.8 | 26.7 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 |
| P/FCF | 11.7 | 9.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6.9 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | N/A |
| EV/EBIT | 24.7 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 19.4 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 15.4 | 27.5 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 14.6 |
| Price/Book | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Price/Sales | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| FCF Yield | 8.6% | 10.5% | -6.1% | -10.4% | -25.9% | 14.5% | 18.4% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 15.2% | 9.9% | 18.5% | N/A |
| Market Cap | 3.8B | 3.4B | 3.3B | 4.2B | 2.9B | 4.4B | 4.3B | 5.4B | 6.5B | 7.4B | 8.2B | 4.6B | 3.3B |
| Avg. Price | 9.16 | 11.58 | 10.77 | 11.65 | 12.30 | 12.32 | 13.05 | 17.22 | 19.84 | 22.42 | 26.99 | 21.73 | 11.02 |
| Year-End Price | 11.41 | 10.46 | 10.40 | 13.31 | 9.33 | 15.03 | 15.49 | 18.17 | 20.89 | 23.93 | 26.86 | 15.19 | 11.02 |
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO passes 5 of 9 quality checks, suggesting mixed fundamentals.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO trades at 7.4x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 13.5x, suggesting it is currently Cheap relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 3.9x vs a median of 6.6x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 8.5% with a gross margin of 19.5%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is 8.6%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is +9.7%.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) reported annual revenue of $8.6 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a net profit margin of 5.2%. This is a modest margin.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) generated $841 million in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.76. This indicates higher leverage, which may increase financial risk.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.48 in its most recent fiscal year.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a return on equity (ROE) of 14.0%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a 5-year average gross margin of 19.5%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 15 years of financial data for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a book value per share of $11.12, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management is prioritizing debt reduction as the highest near-term capital allocation priority, targeting approximately $500 million of debt paydown in 2026 and an investment-grade credit rating by 2030. The company expects significant free cash flow generation beginning in 2026 following the completion of major capital investments, with the Waco recycled paperboard facility expected to contribute approximately $80 million of EBITDA in 2026 and an additional $80 million in 2027 as it ramps to full production. Management is focused on reducing operational complexity through inventory optimization, cost structure right-sizing, and disciplined capital allocation, while continuing to invest in innovation and customer partnerships to capture market share in the shift from single-use plastics and foam packaging to sustainable alternatives. The company expects to maintain pricing discipline while pursuing targeted cost reductions and operational efficiencies to offset inflationary pressures, with volume recovery dependent on normalization of consumer purchasing patterns and macroeconomic conditions.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has provided the following forward guidance: Net Sales: $8.4 billion–$8.6 billion (FY2026); Adjusted EBITDA: $1.05 billion–$1.25 billion (FY2026); Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $700 million–$800 million (FY2026); Capital Expenditures: approximately $450 million (FY2026); Debt Paydown: approximately $500 million (FY2026), plus 2 additional metrics.
Debt Paydown (FY2026): “We intend to pay down approximately $500 million of debt in 2026”
Adjusted EPS (FY2026): “Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.75-$1.15”
Effective Tax Rate (FY2026): “We still expect the full year tax rate to be approximately 25%”