A Business at a Glance
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Smurfit Westrock plc
SW
$25.5B
Mkt Cap
$48.56
+11.10%
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a current P/E ratio of 36.5, compared to its historical median P/E of 28.9. The stock is currently considered Fair based on its historical valuation range.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a 5-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.2%. This is below average and may indicate limited pricing power.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a market capitalization of $25.5B. It is classified as a large-cap stock.
Yes, Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) pays a dividend with a trailing twelve-month yield of 3.58%.
Based on historical P/E analysis, Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) appears fair. The current P/E of 36.5 is 26% above its historical median of 28.9. The estimated fair value CAGR (P/E method) is -15.0%.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) operates in the Paperboard Containers & Boxes industry, within the Materials sector.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) reported annual revenue of $31.2 billion in its most recent fiscal year, based on SEC EDGAR filings.
Smurfit Westrock is a global paper and packaging company operating across three geographic regions—North America, EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), and Latin America—with a diversified product portfolio spanning corrugated packaging, consumer packaging (including CRB, SBS, and specialty grades), and paperboard. The company earns revenue through a combination of converting operations that transform raw materials into finished packaging solutions and paper production, serving customers across retail, e-commerce, food and beverage, and industrial end-markets. The business model emphasizes value-added solutions and customer co-creation through experience centers and innovation capabilities, rather than competing solely on commodity pricing; the company leverages a decentralized operating model with P&L ownership at the business unit level to drive accountability and cross-selling opportunities between corrugated and consumer segments. Unit economics are characterized by capital intensity, with the company investing ahead of depreciation in targeted growth, efficiency, and cost-takeout opportunities, while generating significant free cash flow; distribution is direct to large multinational customers and regional players, with a global footprint providing geographic diversification and resilience. The company's competitive moat rests on its scale, integrated global platform enabling knowledge-sharing across regions, proprietary innovation and design capabilities (holding the highest number of industry innovation awards), and sustainability leadership, which collectively allow it to solve complex packaging problems and command premium positioning relative to pure-play commodity competitors.
【Demand recovery and pricing momentum】 Management expects a strengthening industry environment in the second half of 2026 and beyond, with order books firming and new customer wins offsetting prior-period economic headwinds. The company has implemented price increases of EUR 100 per ton on recycled paper and increases on Kraftliner and specialty grades, with a $50 per ton price increase in North America expected to be fully implemented by July 2026, though management notes these increases are not yet embedded in forward guidance pending formal publication. Energy costs are expected to rise in coming quarters following favorable hedging in recent periods, though a large biomass project in Colombia coming online in 2026 is anticipated to provide material energy cost relief. Management anticipates continued margin resilience and disciplined capital allocation, with capital expenditure targeted at $2.4–$2.5 billion in 2026 to drive cost takeout, operating efficiency, and high-return growth investments, while maintaining investment-grade credit ratings and a progressive dividend policy.
| Metric | Target | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $5.0–5.3 billion | Full year 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $7 billion | 2030 |
| Group adjusted EBITDA margin | 19% | 2030 |
| Discretionary free cash flow | $14 billion | 2026–2030 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $800 million | 2030 (Latin America) |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | close to 28% | 2030 (Latin America) |
| Adjusted free cash flow CAGR | 17% | 2026–2030 |
| Dividends | approximately $5 billion | 2026–2030 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.4–2.5 billion | 2026 |
Adjusted EBITDA (Full year 2026): “I'm pleased to reaffirm our previous expectation of an adjusted EBITDA outcome for the full year 2026 of between $5 billion and $5.3 billion”
Adjusted EBITDA (2030): “By 2030, we aim to deliver $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%”
Generated solely from the company's own reports listed below — not from third-party data. Hallucination risk is low. · Sources: Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call, Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 31.2B | 31.2B | 21.1B | 12.1B | 13.5B |
| Net Income | 380M | 699M | 319M | 825M | 1.0B |
| EPS | $0.73 | $1.33 | $0.82 | $3.17 | $3.96 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.0B | 1.2B | 17M | 630M | 503M |
| ROIC | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 14.4% | - |
| Gross Margin | 18.4% | 19.4% | 19.9% | 25.3% | 24.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.84 | 0.67 | - |
| Dividends/Share | $1.74 | $1.72 | $1.89 | $1.50 | $1.35 |
| Operating Income | 1.4B | 1.7B | 1.0B | 1.4B | 1.6B |
| Operating Margin | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% |
| ROE | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 14.3% | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 524M | 526M | 389M | 260M | 261M |
| Metric | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||
| Revenue | 13.5B | 12.1B | 21.1B | 31.2B | 31.2B |
| Gross Margin | 24.2% | 25.3% | 19.9% | 19.4% | 18.4% |
| R&D | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SG&A | 1.5B | 1.6B | 2.7B | 3.8B | 3.8B |
| EBIT | 1.6B | 1.4B | 1.0B | 1.7B | 1.4B |
| Op. Margin | 11.5% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Net Income | 1.0B | 825M | 319M | 699M | 380M |
| Net Margin | 7.7% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Non-Recurring | 41M | 27M | 32M | 385M | 178M |
| Returns on Capital | |||||
| ROIC | N/A | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| ROE | N/A | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| ROA | N/A | 11.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Cash Flow | |||||
| Op. Cash Flow | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 3.4B | 3.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | 503M | 630M | 17M | 1.2B | 1.0B |
| Owner Earnings | 801M | 913M | -187M | 703M | 562M |
| CapEx | 930M | 929M | 1.5B | 2.2B | 2.3B |
| Maint. CapEx | 564M | 580M | 1.5B | 2.5B | 2.7B |
| Growth CapEx | 366M | 349M | 2.0M | 0 | 0 |
| D&A | 564M | 580M | 1.5B | 2.5B | 2.7B |
| CapEx/OCF | N/A | 59.6% | 98.9% | 64.6% | 69.6% |
| Capital Allocation | |||||
| Dividends Paid | 349M | 391M | 650M | 900M | 912M |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Share Buybacks | 32M | 30M | 27M | 0 | 0 |
| Buyback Yield | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | N/A | 0.0% |
| Stock-Based Comp | 68M | 66M | 206M | 139M | 124M |
| Debt Repayment | 56M | 136M | 4.3B | 1.8B | 1.8B |
| Balance Sheet | |||||
| Net Debt | -841M | 3.1B | 13.8B | 13.6B | 14.1B |
| Cash & Equiv. | 841M | 1.0B | 855M | 892M | 674M |
| Long-Term Debt | N/A | 3.7B | 12.5B | 13.4B | 13.3B |
| Debt/Equity | N/A | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| Interest Coverage | 10.5 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 61.7 |
| Equity | N/A | 6.2B | 17.4B | 18.3B | 18.1B |
| Total Assets | N/A | 14.1B | 43.8B | 45.2B | 45.2B |
| Total Liabilities | 79M | 7.9B | 26.4B | 26.8B | 27.1B |
| Intangibles | N/A | 218M | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.0B |
| Retained Earnings | N/A | 3.5B | 3.0B | 2.7B | 2.4B |
| Working Capital | N/A | 1.6B | 2.7B | 3.4B | 3.2B |
| Current Assets | N/A | 4.6B | 10.1B | 10.4B | 10.6B |
| Current Liabilities | N/A | 3.0B | 7.3B | 7.1B | 7.3B |
| Per Share Data | |||||
| EPS | 3.96 | 3.17 | 0.82 | 1.33 | 0.73 |
| Owner EPS | 3.07 | 3.51 | -0.48 | 1.34 | 1.07 |
| Book Value | N/A | 23.66 | 44.62 | 34.87 | 34.43 |
| Cash Flow/Share | 5.49 | 5.99 | 3.81 | 6.45 | 5.83 |
| Dividends/Share | 1.35 | 1.50 | 1.89 | 1.72 | 1.74 |
| Shares Out. | 261.1M | 260.3M | 389.0M | 525.6M | 524.5M |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 11.9 | 63.9 | 28.9 | 66.8 |
| P/FCF | N/A | 15.6 | N/A | 16.8 | 24.9 |
| EV/EBIT | N/A | 8.5 | 33.1 | 18.9 | 27.9 |
| Price/Book | N/A | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| FCF Yield | N/A | 6.4% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Market Cap | 0 | 9.8B | 20.4B | 20.2B | 25.5B |
| Avg. Price | 0.00 | 33.78 | 43.31 | 43.38 | 48.56 |
| Year-End Price | 0.00 | 37.75 | 52.43 | 38.40 | 48.56 |
Smurfit Westrock plc passes 2 of 9 quality checks, indicating weak fundamentals.
Smurfit Westrock plc trades at 36.5x trailing earnings, compared to its 15-year median P/E of 28.9x, suggesting it is currently Fair relative to its historical range. On a free-cash-flow basis, the stock trades at 21.3x vs a median of 16.2x. The company's 5-year average ROIC is 7.2% with a gross margin of 22.2%. Total shareholder yield (dividends) is 3.6%. At current prices, the estimated annualized return to fair value is -15.0%.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a net profit margin of 2.2%. This is a modest margin.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow in its most recent fiscal year. Positive free cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79. This indicates moderate leverage.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.33 in its most recent fiscal year.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a return on equity (ROE) of 3.9%. This indicates moderate shareholder returns.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a 5-year average gross margin of 22.2%. This lower margin is typical of capital-intensive or commodity businesses.
The Ledger Terminal provides 4 years of financial data for Smurfit Westrock plc (SW), sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. This includes income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and key financial ratios.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has a book value per share of $34.87, based on its most recent annual SEC filing.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings disclosures, Management expects a strengthening industry environment in the second half of 2026 and beyond, with order books firming and new customer wins offsetting prior-period economic headwinds. The company has implemented price increases of EUR 100 per ton on recycled paper and increases on Kraftliner and specialty grades, with a $50 per ton price increase in North America expected to be fully implemented by July 2026, though management notes these increases are not yet embedded in forward guidance pending formal publication. Energy costs are expected to rise in coming quarters following favorable hedging in recent periods, though a large biomass project in Colombia coming online in 2026 is anticipated to provide material energy cost relief. Management anticipates continued margin resilience and disciplined capital allocation, with capital expenditure targeted at $2.4–$2.5 billion in 2026 to drive cost takeout, operating efficiency, and high-return growth investments, while maintaining investment-grade credit ratings and a progressive dividend policy.
Based on recent SEC filings and earnings calls, Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has provided the following forward guidance: Adjusted EBITDA: $5.0–5.3 billion (Full year 2026); Adjusted EBITDA: $7 billion (2030); Group adjusted EBITDA margin: 19% (2030); Discretionary free cash flow: $14 billion (2026–2030); Adjusted EBITDA: $800 million (2030 (Latin America)), plus 4 additional metrics.
Group adjusted EBITDA margin (2030): “By 2030, we aim to deliver $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%”
Discretionary free cash flow (2026–2030): “Over the life of the plan, we aim to generate $14 billion of discretionary free cash flow”
Adjusted EBITDA (2030 (Latin America)): “we believe we have a clear plan to reach an Adjusted EBITDA of $800 million, with a margin close to 28%”
Adjusted EBITDA margin (2030 (Latin America)): “we believe we have a clear plan to reach an Adjusted EBITDA of $800 million, with a margin close to 28%”
Adjusted free cash flow CAGR (2026–2030): “We expect to generate significant adjusted free cash flow of some $14 billion between 2026 and 2030, with an adjusted free cash flow CAGR of 17%”
Dividends (2026–2030): “we expect, subject to appropriate board approvals and discretion, dividends of approximately $5 billion during the period”