Consumer Cyclical Sector Report
Market Cap: $8.8T
Stocks: 540
Median P/E: 17.2x
Median ROIC: 8.2%
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Report refreshed weekly.
The Consumer Cyclical (Discretionary) sector spans companies providing non-essential goods and services, including automobiles, apparel, restaurants, travel, and e-commerce. Demand is highly correlated with consumer confidence and disposable income, making the sector more volatile through economic cycles. Top performers typically combine strong brand equity with operational efficiency.
Performance Dashboard
| Period | Sector (MCW) | Sector (Median) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 1 Week | -2.8% | -0.4% |
| 1 Month | — | — |
| 3 Months | — | — |
| 6 Months | — | — |
| YTD | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| 1 Year | +19.9% | +2.3% |
| 3 Years | +111.8% | +1.5% |
| 5 Years | +57.0% | -20.4% |
Today's Breadth: 191 advancing · 235 declining · 27 flat
Valuation Summary
| Metric | Median | P25 | P75 | vs 5Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.2x | 9.6x | 28.3x | -2% |
| P/B | 1.7x | 0.8x | 3.8x | -25% |
| P/S | 0.7x | 0.3x | 1.6x | — |
| P/FCF | 12.9x | 6.5x | 23.4x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3x | 5.7x | 15.0x | — |
| EV/EBIT | 14.8x | 10.0x | 22.1x | — |
Earnings Yield
4.9%
FCF Yield
5.0%
Below Fair Value
44% of stocks
Profitability Profile
Margins
| Metric | Median | 5Y Avg | P25 | P75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 36.7% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 53.6% |
| Operating Margin | 5.2% | — | 0.1% | 10.8% |
| Net Margin | 2.7% | 3.1% | -2.1% | 7.1% |
| FCF Margin | 4.7% | — | 0.7% | 10.1% |
Returns on Capital
| Metric | Median | 5Y Avg | P25 | P75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7% | — | -6.9% | 17.6% |
| ROA | 2.3% | — | -3.9% | 6.5% |
| ROIC | 8.2% | 9.2% | 0.2% | 16.1% |
Growth Metrics
| Metric | 1Y | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.2% | +3.2% | +7.0% |
| EPS | +10.4% | -1.0% | +9.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | +10.1% | +4.5% | +4.1% |
All values represent sector median growth rates.
Balance Sheet Health
Debt / Equity
0.6x
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.4x
Interest Coverage
3.6x
Current Ratio
1.3x
Altman Z-Score
Safe (>3): 164 (34%)
Gray (1.8–3): 121 (25%)
Distress (<1.8): 204 (42%)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong (7–9): 117 (22%)
Moderate (4–6): 322 (60%)
Weak (0–3): 101 (19%)
Top Companies
| Symbol | #▲ | Mkt Cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROIC | Net Mgn | Rev Gr. | Div Yld | YTD | Qual. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 1 | $2.6T | 32.4x | 16.9x | 21.6% | 10.8% | +12.4% | — | -3.0% | 3/9 |
| TSLA | 2 | $1.2T | 440.0x | 155.5x | 7.5% | 4.0% | -2.9% | — | +5.4% | 5/9 |
| HD | 3 | $338.8B | 25.9x | 17.5x | 30.2% | 9.3% | +4.5% | 2.3% | +0.7% | 5/9 |
| TM | 4 | $275.1B | 7.2x | 4.0x | 14.1% | 10.0% | +8.2% | 3.3% | +1.8% | 5/9 |
| MC-PA | 5 | $241.4B | 24.4x | 14.3x | 17.0% | 14.8% | -2.2% | 2.3% | — | 5/9 |
| MCD | 6 | $218.2B | 26.0x | 17.9x | 27.3% | 31.9% | +3.7% | 2.3% | +0.7% | 5/9 |
| DIS | 7 | $183.2B | 16.2x | 10.4x | 12.2% | 13.1% | +3.4% | 0.5% | +0.9% | 4/9 |
| TJX | 8 | $181.9B | 28.9x | 17.1x | 63.7% | 8.6% | +4.0% | 1.2% | -0.3% | 6/9 |
| LOW | 9 | $140.6B | 21.2x | 14.7x | 34.5% | 8.3% | -3.1% | 1.7% | +0.1% | 4/9 |
| SBUX | 10 | $111.0B | 50.5x | 22.9x | 19.4% | 5.0% | +2.8% | 3.0% | -2.6% | 4/9 |
| CVS | 11 | $99.3B | 56.8x | 16.7x | 2.7% | 0.4% | +7.8% | 3.4% | -1.7% | 1/9 |
| MAR | 12 | $98.3B | 33.1x | 21.7x | 25.5% | 9.9% | +4.3% | 0.8% | +3.5% | 4/9 |
| SHW | 13 | $83.7B | 31.7x | 20.5x | 20.5% | 10.9% | +2.1% | 1.0% | +0.9% | 5/9 |
| ORLY | 14 | $80.3B | 31.1x | 21.3x | 61.9% | 14.3% | +6.4% | — | +1.0% | 6/9 |
| HLT | 15 | $77.9B | 47.9x | 28.0x | 33.8% | 12.1% | +7.7% | 0.2% | +2.4% | 4/9 |
| GM | 16 | $74.7B | 25.4x | 21.3x | 1.7% | 1.7% | -1.3% | 0.7% | +0.8% | 3/9 |
| ROST | 17 | $73.1B | 22.0x | 13.0x | 37.8% | 9.9% | +3.7% | 1.1% | -0.3% | 5/9 |
| CTAS | 18 | $72.4B | 50.8x | 35.3x | 28.8% | 17.5% | +7.8% | 0.7% | +1.9% | 4/9 |
| TEL | 19 | $70.1B | 35.1x | 17.0x | 12.3% | 10.7% | +8.9% | 1.3% | +3.3% | 5/9 |
| PCAR | 20 | $67.1B | 24.7x | 17.6x | 12.4% | 8.3% | -15.5% | 2.4% | -1.2% | 4/9 |
Industry Composition
| Industry | Stocks | Market Cap | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses | 22 | $2.7T | 30.5% | |
| Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies | 19 | $1.9T | 21.2% | |
| Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers | 5 | $494.6B | 5.6% | |
| Retail-Eating Places | 36 | $416.5B | 4.7% | |
| Hotels & Motels | 22 | $336.2B | 3.8% | |
| Retail-Family Clothing Stores | 10 | $282.7B | 3.2% | |
| Luxury Goods | 6 | $253.6B | 2.9% | |
| Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation | 20 | $237.6B | 2.7% | |
| Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations | 19 | $192.6B | 2.2% | |
| Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply | 4 | $160.8B | 1.8% | |
| Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores | 6 | $145.2B | 1.6% | |
| Retail-Eating & Drinking Places | 6 | $132.9B | 1.5% | |
| Auto - Manufacturers | 5 | $116.0B | 1.3% | |
| Men'S & Boys' Furnishgs, Work Clothg, & Allied Garments | 6 | $113.6B | 1.3% | |
| Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories | 31 | $111.4B | 1.3% |
Showing top 15 of 92 industries.
Quality Distribution
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Quality Score (0-9)
High Quality (7+)
4%
Median Piotroski F
5/9
Profitable Years
6 of 10
Dividends & Shareholder Returns
Paying Dividends
45%
Median Div Yield
2.1%
Median Buyback Yield
1.4%
Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Payout Ratio
35.6%
Div Growth (3Y)
7.0%
Div Growth (5Y)
8.7%
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths
No notable strengths identified.
Weaknesses
- −[Financial Health]41.7% of companies fall in the Altman Z-Score distress zone (<1.8), indicating elevated bankruptcy risk within the sector.
- −[Leverage]Tight interest coverage at 3.6x, leaving limited cushion for debt servicing if earnings decline.
- −[Profitability]Razor-thin net margins at a median of 2.7%, leaving little room for execution error or economic downturn.
- −[Quality]Only 3.7% of companies score 7+ on the quality checklist, reflecting structural challenges in achieving consistent returns across the sector.